The Presidential race rages on for the Dems, and is driving most of us crazy. However, we can all agree that strong Democratic performances in the House races will be key to electing a Democratic President, a 2nd Democratic Senator in Virginia, and maintaining a strong Democratic majority going forward in Virginia and throughout the country. The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it. However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006. Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats. Nearly 30 GOP seats are now open seats, and another GOP rep seems to retire every couple weeks. Far fewer Democratic seats are open.
Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 30 seats that may be vulnerable, with 17 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 41 seats that may be vulnerable, with 22 that are clearly vulnerable. Among the 22 that are clearly vulnerable are the Virginia's 11th District, with Tom Davis' retirement. Virginia's 2nd District and Virginia's 10th District are slightly vulnerable for the Republicans at this point. Virginia's 5th District is a race to watch. There are no vulnerable Virginia Democratic Congressman at this point.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (8)
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district big time for the Democrats.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg faces a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger in 2008.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic-leaning district. Saxton's retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering Columbus and its eastern suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce's 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race is a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri will be the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover we have all been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005, and Jim Webb won big here in 2006.
Vulnerable Republicans (14)
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He likely faces a strong primary challenge. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is running for Senate, where he should finally give Ted Stevens a good run.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who'll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will help GOP the candidate a lot, however.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Democrat Christine Jennings fought for months after this close race raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time?
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring at the end of his term it is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 26 (Open Seat) - Reynolds retirement offers a unique pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, who posed a strong challenge in 2006.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in the rural southwest corner of New York State.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006, Larry Kissell, who plans to run again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but he may face a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus, if he runs.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (19)
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California's Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, he may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) - Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, the Democrats still have a chance in the suburbs west of Chicago.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in suburban Chicago, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Kentucky 02 (Open Seat) - In 2006, this was expected to be a close race, but Congressman Ron Lewis was able to win by ten. He decided to retire before the filing deadline leaving this seat open, and a potential pick up for Democrats, who except to bring a strong challenger for this seat.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Knollenberg's 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
Missouri 06 (Graves) - This seat in Missouri's Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor, this district may have some potential with former Missouri Democratic House Speaker Steve Gaw in the race.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - The Democrats didn't mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) - LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio's northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Now the Democrats have a new candidate who may be formidable in former diplomat, Glenn Nye.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Other Republican races to watch
Alabama 02 (Open), California 26 (Drier), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Indiana 03 (Souder), Louisiana 06 (Open), Maryland 01 (Open), Minnesota 02 (Kline), Pennsylvania 03 (English), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Virginia 05 (Goode)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Alabama 05 (Open) - The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district is a strong pick up for the GOP.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was Boyda's victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? Jim Ryun appears to be up for a rematch. Too bad they aren't competing in the Mile run.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. In 2008, however, Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition without the baggage of Sweeney.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once. Democrats will need a strong candidate to keep this seat.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. Now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin.
Vulnerable Democrats (8)
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat only due to the Democratic wave.
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - Barring a primary loss, this will be a rematch with Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is easy.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) - This conservative-leaning district east of Columbus was ripe for a GOP comeback against the fortunate freshman Democrat who rode the Bob Ney corruption/resignation wave to his seat in 2006. Yet the GOP has not apparently brought a strong challenger into the contest.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (13)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 against Mitchell, in what remains a swing district in the Phoenix suburbs.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - While Giffords had a strong victory in 2006, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable in this border district in Southeast Arizona.
Illinois 14 (Foster) - Are you confused? Yes, this was former House Speaker, Dennis Hastert's seat, which he retained in 2006. However, since Denny decided not to serve out his term, on Saturday March 8th he was replaced by Democrat Bill Foster, who won the special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain slightly vulnerable for him as he enters Congress at a crazy time in this Republican-leaning seat.
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) - The GOP has not provided a strong challenge in this Republican-leaning northern Indiana district which includes South Bend.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) - The victory of Andre Carson in the March special election may secure this seat for the Democrats in Indianapolis. The race was still relatively close, and shows a divide remains in the district, that could still leave this political newcomer vulnerable in November.
Kansas 03 (Moore) - While he didn't face a tough challenge in 2006, he may have a tougher contest this time. He remains slightly vulnerable in a district Bush won by 12 in 2004.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) - Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition
New Hampshire 02 (Hodes) - Freshman Democrat Paul Hodes may face a strong challenge for the seat he picked up in 2006.
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) - I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) - Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Indiana 08 (Ellsworth), Iowa 03 (Boswell), Pennsylvania 07 (Sestak), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker
It is the first time. I hadn't been doing the races to watch in the earlier updates. I want to keep track of races on the margins. Isn't it amazing how many Republicans are jumping ship?
Assuming Clinton and Obama don't completely rend the party, 2008 should be a big year for us.
Reversing a generation of GOP corruption and incompetence, however, will take more time.
Thanks again for doing this. It really is spectacular work.
It often takes two congressional runs for someone to gain the needed name recognition to win.
As for her being too liberal, well, you've said that a number of times before in comments, but you never actually point to which of her positions is too liberal. Is it her opposition to the war? The fact that she wants to change the way we pay for health care in this country?
It is undoubtedly an uphill climb, but Wolf has grown out of touch with his district. However, he is still well liked. It won't take a shocker of a revelation, but it will take a lot of grassroots effort to explain to the community just what Wolf's been about the last 8 years -- and that's carrying Bush's water instead of serving the people in his community.
And you talk about statistics like PVI R +5, but the fact is that because Judy already ran, there is a far better one: the LAST RACE. She lost by 16 points, and as I tried to point out, it wasn't due to lack of exposure. Thanks to her terrific fundraising, she had all the exposure one could hope for. Mark my words, she's not going to get within 10 points of Wolf. Then maybe we can let new blood take a shot. It's a shame, I like what I hear out of this Mike Turner guy in terms of issues, but he'll never get a shot against somebody like Judy because A) he's not a poltician, and B) he's a centrist, and centrists usually don't win primaries.
I think she's got a great opportunity to WIN, with Democrats energized to vote for Barack and Mark at the top of the ticket. Name exposure is not based solely on money, but she will have the resources to become better known.
And Mike Turner has his chance -- if Democrats in the 10th like his message better than Judy's, then he'll be the nominee.
I think the atmosphere for Democrats in '08 will be BETTER than in '06. And I honestly don't get why you think it's necessary to state she won't get within 10 points -- seriously, how does that add to the discussion? She's the underdog, but this is nowhere near 'lost cause' territory. There are 5 CDs in VA that will be in play in '08 that are currently held by Republicans, and three much more uphill struggles. Judy is a mainstream progressive in a bluing district, well within the mainstream of Democratic ideals and policies.
Judy is a solid liberal (I hate that word "progressive", it's simply an attempt to flip the script on the campaign vocab. Nobody says "I'm a liberal" anymore, they say "I'm a progressive." There may have been a difference between the two terms at once, but certainly not anymore) in a district that just isn't blue yet. Will be in a few years, I think. But not yet. Look how long it took the Eleventh to go from solidly red to blue! Hell, the tenth just STARTED that trend!
Five races? FIVE? What five are you talking about? The Eleventh? Yeah, definitely. The Second? Eh, maybe. We'll see, but I'm not getting my hopes up. The Fifth in the Tenth? Dead girl, live boy for Wolf and Goode. What other race are you getting at?
I'm not saying it's a lost cause. I don't believe in "lost causes" in politics, they are all worth fighting for. I just see nothing in the political atmosphere or Judy's past performance to suggest she can make up a 16 point gap. That's not chicken feed. 16 points is a HUGE number to make up. If her message hasn't changed at all, and it hasn't, where are those voters coming from?
I'll put my credibility as a political analyst out on the line and make a prediciton right now: the only House race we pick up in 08 in the Eleventh. We lose the Second by 5-9 points, and lose the Tenth between 8-12 points.
1) The housing bust and impending mortgage crisis. Prince William, especially in Manassas, is getting nailed by foreclosures. People will rightly blame the Republicans for this mess -- it was the Republican Party's fanatical devotion to the cause of deregulation of everything that made it so much easier to write up these bad mortgages in the first place.
2) The War. Every single Democrat needs to talk first and foremost about ending this damned war, and tying the economy's troubles to the fact that we're spending money we don't have on a war that was never worth the potential benefits, to the exclusion of spending that could be taking place investing in American infrastructure and energy programs. The Republican party seems bound and determined to walk itself over the cliff with regard to Iraq, and it's our job to help push them. Every single Democrat running should also highlight how badly veterans returning from war are being taken care of by this administration and demand that this change.
3) The economy generally. This economy is the result of Republican policies under George W Bush.
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As for the five races, in order (as I see them), 11th; 10th; 2nd, 5th, 4th. The 4th is the wildcard -- it has the highest black population of any district in Va except the 3rd, in a year in which there will probably be a black Democrat running for President. Forbes has never been challenged, so I think the 4th can be in play. The 4th, 10th, 2nd, and 5th are all around PVI R + 5 -- that puts them in play in a Presidential cycle. The 1st, 6th, and 7th are much, much more difficult terrain. Generically right now, the country is about 53-46 Democrat if you go by raw vote totals for the 2006 Congressional races -- R + 5 puts a district right around 50/50, and therefore in play.
Again, Dan, I don't dispute that 16 points will be easy -- but I do think it can be made up. There are tens of thousands of new voters in that district in a presidential cycle, and I think Judy can tap in to the change message effectively.
8 months is a very long time in politics. The only thing we know is that the war will still be going on, and we'll be seeing 10-30 American soldiers dying a week. This recession will most likely be the worst one America has seen since the '70s or early '80s.
Now, I don't underestimate McCain. The Republicans picked the best candidate they could, but he is deeply, deeply flawed, and that message will eventually get out. His support for Bushian foreign and economic policies will be made clear, and he will look old and angry next to Obama (or Clinton).
We'll win the 11th and 10th, and at least one of the 2nd, 5th, and 4th. Minimum of three seat pickup -- that's my hedged prediction. And Virginia will go for Obama in November.
Thanks.
It is, however, VERY conservative.
The really badly gerrymandered districts are the 3rd, 8th, 10th, 11th, and 1st. The racial gerrymander that is the 3rd is an abomination. It'll be interesting to see how redistricting shakes out. We need to demand that the third be broken up in to two separate districts, one in Richmond and one in Hampton Roads. The first is also just an awful district -- that district also needs to be broken up into a district based in Stafford/Fredericksburg and putting the rest of the Hampton Roads voters back together. But it did the job it was intended to do -- elect more Republicans.
Goodlatte strikes me as beatable, as he has that awesome entrenched Republican congressman quality of being arrogant and out of touch. Still, out of the 6 State Senate seats that overlap with the 6th (there may be seven; I can't tell from a quick glance if State Senate seat 21 held by John Edwards actually overlaps with the 6th CD -- I don't think it does), we only hold one -- Creigh Deeds' western half of Senate Seat 25. Obenshain won re-election in Sen 26 70-30; Hanger won Sen 24 65 - 27; Ruff won Sen 15 59-41; Newman was unopposed in Sen 23. Deeds and Edwards were unopposed as Dems. SD 22 was obviously a near 50/50 split in the race Mike Breiner lost.
Very tough sledding. I almost tend to think that Anita Hartke has an easier shot in CD 7, just because Eric Cantor is so crazy -- and there's videotape to prove it. Plus, Edd Houck has shown a Democrat CAN win in that district.
In any event, I agree with Dan that we should view this as a starting point to organizing these districts for the future. There were a disappointingly high number of delegate and senate seats we didn't contest in 2007. If we expect to get to a majority in 2009, we need to field at least 20 credible challengers, and many of these districts will be in the 1st, 6th, or 7th.
Can Sam or Drew catch lightning in a bottle? That seems to be the question. I know you're constitutionally optimistic Lowell, so I'll go with your line of thinking and say that there's a shot. The national political climate is dark enough, and people are pissed off enough, that most anything seems possible.
If Ms. Miller can peel off about 25-30% of the white vote, she is in the ballpark. I think black turnout will be huge with Barack as the nominee, and having a black woman running will also help.
It's also why Thelma Drake and to a lesser extent Virgil Goode are so vulnerable this cycle. The 2nd is about a quarter black/mixed, and 4.4% Hispanic -- in other words, only approx 63% non-Hispanic white. The 5th is about 71% non-Hispanic white.
This is all obviously predicated on record black turnout. But it's very much in the realm of possibility. It's also why the 2nd CD is still very much in play despite an unknown candidate -- demographics and Thelma combined lead to a very good opportunity. The 5th's demographics make it more of an uphill climb, but Tom appears to be an exceptional candidate, so I think he'll put the 5th in play.
Dan, the trend in the 10th to Democrats has NOT just started. It's been a consistent trend since the late 90's at all levels. It's just that there was much more electoral ground to make up. Look at the 10th District results for the last 6 federal cycles, and you'll be surprised how far we've come, and perhaps you'll be surprised to learn that Judy improved 5% over the previous Democrat who ran in 2004 and was arguably a very good Democratic nominee in James Socas.
In 2006, I expected Judy to attract about 44%, and she fell short of that by about 3%. However, she still improved things, the district demographics and voting patterns have shifted far more since in 2008 than they had in 2006 despite having already started then.
Furthermore, you must align with the "if you can't beat 'em join 'em" school. Republicans she a Jewish female running for office and immediately think all they need to do is throw the "liberal" label around. Judy Feder's positions are not too far removed from Tom Davis' or Rick Boucher's! Where ARE you getting this "too liberal" crap from? Stop parroting a GOP talking point without being willing to answer the question--what exactly is so liberal about her positions? They are largely indistinguishable from every other popular Democrat running in Virginia. Then what makes Judy more susceptible to this liberal speculation. It's the same shit Leslie has to put up with, and it's largely hogwash.
At any rate, I think Judy still has an uphill climb to the House of Representatives, but it IS an attainable seat in this political atmosphere, and in the 10th District.
Today's 10th District just does NOT have the electoral make-up that you and others continue to think that it does, and you'll be seeing that more and more. I think Ron's guess about a PVI of close to zero after 2008 will probably not be too far off.
I am interested to see how Mike Turner fares in the primary, as well.
VA-02 Thelma Drake
VA-10 Frank Wolf
VA-11 Tom Davis
In the 11th, Leslie Byrne has now been added as a Blue Majority candidate. Congratulations to Leslie, the next Congresswoman from the 11th CD!
IL-06: I just don't see how Roskam loses this district as an incumbent if Tammy Duckworth couldn't win an open seat in 2006. That's just me, though.
KY-02: Though the seat is open, it is an R+13 district in a Presidential year. With Lewis's former CoS dropping out of the race, the GOP field has cleared for State Sen. Guthrie, who will run against State Sen. Boswell. Given the heavily Republican tilt of the district, the solid candidate the GOP has running, and the fact that Lewis's CoS dropped out, I wouldn't expect this race to be competitive at all.
VA-02: Anyone who reads my blog should know my thoughts on this, but I don't consider Nye to be a better candidate than Kellam, and Drake is now more entrenched than she was in '06.
VA-10: The poster above tackled my thoughts on this. Feder lost by 16 points in 2006. She's not a viable candidate.
IN-09: No real quibble with your ranking, I just wanted to point out the novelty that the Baron Hill/Mike Sodrel match-up is the fourth consecutive for these guys.
OH-18: I would actually not rank this seat as vulnerable for the Dems, given the GOP's God-awful recruitment.
PA-04: With no primary challenge and the filing deadline having passed, Melissa Hart is the GOP nominee.
IL-14: Since Oberweis will be the GOP nominee in the Fall, I would knock this race down in terms of vulnerability. Oberweis is simply a terrible candidate, and if the NRCC spends a dime on the race they should all be taken out back and shot. The best chance the GOP has is to wait until 2010.
IN-07: The biggest thing about this race is that, due to the timing of Rep. Julia Carson's death and the quirky DEM laws in Indiana, Andre Carson still has to face a primary to be the DEM nominee in the fall, and there are a lot more candidates (and stronger candidates) for that primary than there were for the special election primary. So Carson, though now a Congressman, may not be the nominee in November, which may give State Rep. Jon Elrod (the GOP nominee for both the special and the fall) another shot.
KS-03: Rep. Moore will be facing State Sen. Nick Jordan, who is a much better challenger than previous cycles. I don't know if he will make the race competitive yet or not, but of all the "slightly vulnerable" Dems, this is probably the most likely to jump up.