There is a lot of anecdotal information out there about foreclosures in NoVa. My suspicion has been that the worst of it is in areas that are further out - I am not aware of any foreclosures in my area. I had a couple of reasons for this - for one thing, high fuel prices combined with horrible traffic will cause people to want to move in closer to their employment. Secondly, the subprime mess would tend to be more strongly concentrated in areas of new construction. In an established neighborhood only a handful of houses would turn over every year, so there will tend to be far fewer new mortgages.
The WaPo confirms much of this:
When foreclosure specialist John Thompson looks at a map of Northern Virginia, he sees a flaming archipelago that stretches from Dumfries to Sterling. Parts of Dale City, Woodbridge and Herndon are engulfed; Manassas and Manassas Park are "a volcano."Thompson calls this the "ring of fire," Northern Virginia's foreclosure belt. And although hardly a scientific model, it illustrates the geographic pattern of the region's housing distress.
Inner areas aren't seeing the same problems. Frankly I would be happy to just hold even in this market - increases surprise me:
"It's really limited to the ring of fire," said Thompson, an agent with Samson Realty who specializes in REO, or "real estate owned," properties. "There is no foreclosure crisis in McLean, Great Falls, Vienna, Oakton, Fairfax Station and most postal areas of Northern Virginia," he said.In those areas, prices have dipped slightly, remained stable or, in some cases, increased. Average sale prices in some Arlington County neighborhoods have risen 7 percent in the past year, and one McLean neighborhood's average price has increased 13 percent.
Real estate agents say the foreclosure crisis in Prince William has been exacerbated by local authorities' efforts to crack down on illegal immigrants. They warn that the campaign might have other, more far-reaching economic consequences if homeowners continue to default.Whether out of fear or the perception that they are no longer welcome, Latino families who were already struggling financially have little incentive to fight to remain in their homes. Anecdotes abound of Hispanic immigrants leaving the county for Maryland or the Carolinas.
"What can I do? I've got no choice," said Jose Ruiz, 27, a landscaper and illegal immigrant from El Salvador who bought a Manassas condo two years ago for $200,000. He has been making $2,000 monthly payments for his mortgage and condo fees since then, spending most of his monthly income and all his savings. He and his wife worry that they'll be deported or separated from their daughters, ages 3 and 1. But they can't sell their condo, which Ruiz estimates is worth $130,000 in the current market. So they're planning to walk away rather than risk a forcible removal.