Obama vs McCain: If the election were held today

By: Terry85
Published On: 3/10/2008 3:33:23 PM

It took me a few hours to put this together but it probably wouldn't have been possible and certainly wouldn't be nearly as up to date if SurveyUSA hadn't released a similar poll last week.  However, SurveyUSA isn't the best polling source so I averaged all polls I could find that were current within the past month.  The two biggest headlines you could take from this would be that Obama carries Virginia and that even Texas appears to be in play.  


View the state by state results after the jump!

Instead of the traditional list in alphabetical order, let's take a look at each state by order in which they joined the union:


Delaware (3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 51, McCain 41


Pennsylvania (21) (RCP Average) - Obama 43.3, McCain 41.3


New Jersey(15) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 43, McCain 44


Georgia(15) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 54


Connecticut(7) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 55, McCain 34


Massachusetts(12) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 49, McCain 42


Maryland(10) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 40


South Carolina(8) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 45, McCain 48


New Hampshire(4) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 36


Virginia(13) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 47


New York(31) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 52, McCain 38


North Carolina(15) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 45, McCain 47


Rhode Island(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 38


Vermont(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 63, McCain 29


Kentucky(8) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 33, McCain 54


Tennessee(11) (MTSU & SurveyUSA) - Obama 37, McCain 52


Ohio(20)* (RCP Average) - Obama 42.7, McCain 42.7


Louisiana(9) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 54


Indiana(11) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50


Mississippi(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 54


Illinois(21) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 60, McCain 31


Alabama(9) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 40, McCain 54


Maine(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 53, McCain 39


Missouri(11) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 45


Arkansas(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 33, McCain 53


Michigan(17) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 46.5, McCain 32


Florida(27) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50


Texas(34) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 46, McCain 47


Iowa(7) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47, McCain 41


Wisconsin(10) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47.5, McCain 41.5


California(55) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 61, McCain 34


Minnesota(10) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 51, McCain 40


Oregon(7) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 49, McCain 40.5


Kansas(6) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 41, McCain 50


West Virginia(5) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 35, McCain 53


Nevada(5) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 39.5


Nebraska(5)** (SurveyUSA) - Obama 42, McCain 45


Colorado(9) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 40


North Dakota(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 46, McCain 42


South Dakota(3) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 40.5, McCain 47.5


Montana(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 47


Washington(11) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 48, McCain 41.5


Idaho(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 52


Wyoming(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 35, McCain 54


Utah(5) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 50


Oklahoma(7) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 34, McCain 57


New Mexico(5) (Rasmussen & SurveyUSA) - Obama 47, McCain 43.5


Arizona(10) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 39, McCain 51


Alaska(3) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 43, McCain 48


Hawaii(4) (SurveyUSA) - Obama 61, McCain 31


Washington, DC (3)***- Obama n/a, McCain n/a

Electoral College Estimate - Obama 281, McCain 237


*The average in Ohio was a tie between Barack Obama and John McCain.  The electoral college estimate does not reflect Ohio's 20 votes.  If, for the sake of argument John McCain were to be awarded the 20 votes, Barack Obama would still win the presidency by a electoral vote of 281-257.

**Nebraska awards it's electoral votes based partially by congressional district.  Obama would likely carry two of the state's three Congressional districts meaning Obama carries two of the state's five electoral votes.

***No polling data was available for Washington, DC but Barack Obama is the presumptive winner.

Comments



Something I noticed (Rebecca - 3/10/2008 3:41:28 PM)
I can't help but notice that some of the states Hillary won show McCain way ahead of Democrats in the general. I think that refutes the idea that she would help in these states. It looks to me that Obama would win every big Dem state that Hillary would, so what would we gain with Hillary other than another four years of non-stop scandals, that is if she can win at all?


Not necessarily (Hugo Estrada - 3/10/2008 5:15:57 PM)
we need to have a similar breakdown with Hillary polls to see if it would make a difference.


I didn't do one for Hillary (Terry85 - 3/10/2008 5:48:30 PM)
because I don't plan to vote for her (and also because I don't have the time).  However, the SurveyUSA poll shows Hillary losing to McCain by like 200 electoral college votes.


I understand, Terry85 (Hugo Estrada - 3/10/2008 8:13:01 PM)
I understand that it takes a lot of time to make a single one of these. Thanks!

I was addressing Rebecca's statement that the states the Hillary won had McCain strongly ahead from Obama and that this would refute the idea that Hillary would win those states.

What I was saying was that we cannot deduce that from looking at the data that you made about Obama. We would need a similar table for Hillary to make such a statement... And of course, this doesn't mean that you must create it :)



Say What?!? (Ron1 - 3/11/2008 1:58:41 AM)
The S-USA polls had Hillary winning the Electoral College by nearly the same margin as Barack. She flips Arkansas, New Mexico, Florida, and 0hio -- but loses a number of states from the current 'blue coalition.'

The major difference is that she makes McCain's solid states more solid, and her solid states are much lower in EV total than Barack's -- hers is a much riskier proposition (in my opinion). Her gambit rests almost entirely on Florida and 0hio (but to be optimistic on her behalf, I think she'd put WVa, KY, and TN in play as well), while Barack's expands the playing field all over the place, and dramatically solidifies states like WI, MN, NH, IA, WA, and 0R.  



Sorry, (Terry85 - 3/11/2008 12:33:52 PM)
You are right, I was looking at something different on their web site.  :)


Something else worth noting (LT - 3/10/2008 3:56:09 PM)
The 281 could expand into a 292, b/c Missouri isn't too far out of reach (45-41 for McCain).


Or 301 with Ohio... (Terry85 - 3/10/2008 4:20:34 PM)
I didn't take in to account any margins of error because there would have been way too many ties.  One could also make the argument that New Jersey would go to Obama too.


What surprises me is South Carolina (thegools - 3/11/2008 10:44:22 PM)
It is far closer than I would expect.


THere are so many close states (humanfont - 3/11/2008 1:17:22 AM)
Heck south carolina is within 4, NC is within 2.  If Obama can win the nomination, and keep the green rolling in, he can run a truely national campaign where 40 states could be in play for him.  McCain with his age and lack of money will be in serious trouble.


to bring about change ... (j_wyatt - 3/11/2008 1:41:19 AM)
we need a landslide.

With Barack Obama (and Jim Webb as VP), there's a chance.  With Hillary Clinton, there is no chance.  It's as simple as that.



McCain will have plenty of money. (thegools - 3/11/2008 10:45:56 PM)


Texas, NJ, and South Carolina? (thegools - 3/11/2008 10:57:03 PM)
I can understand NJ being close, but TX and SC are nice surprises.  It has been a very long time since TX or SC went for a democrat for PROTUS.  1964 was the last I believe.


Texas and South Carolina (SullyEsq - 3/13/2008 10:36:09 AM)
Texas went for Humphrey in 1968
South Carolina went for Kennedy in 1960.  
I believe that those are the last Democratic victories for President in those states.


Texas and South Carolina (SullyEsq - 3/13/2008 12:31:25 PM)
I was incorrect.  Both Texas and South Carolina voted Democratic in 1976 for Southerner Jimmy Carter.  They didn't go for him in 1980, though.