In a Raising Kaine exclusive, the Gerry Connolly campaign is about to release a poll showing Connolly with a commanding 23 point lead. The head to head poll ("Who would you vote for if the election were held today?") shows:
Connolly: 45
Undecided: 32
Byrne: 22
Denneny: 1
The Polling Memo is below the fold and more thoughts to come on the contradiction between this poll and Leslie's poll showing her with a 10 point lead.
To: Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri
Subject: Democratic Primary Poll Results from VA's 11th CDA new Lake Research partners's survey of likely voters shows that Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is the strong favorite in the Democratic Primary in Virginia's 11th Congressional District. Connolly is better known and better liked than Leslie Byrne, and has a commanding lead in the trial heat.
Connolly, fresh off his enormous countywide victory last November (60% to 36% for the Republican), is well known. Seventy-nine percent of primary voters know him well enough to rate him. Seven in ten voters (71%) rate him either very favorably (34%) or somewhat favorably (38%). Only 8% rate him unfavorably, for a favorable ration of 8.8 to 1.
Comparatively, Leslie Byrne has a weaker profile despite representing this district in Congress, serving in the House of Delegates and State Senate, and being the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2005. Only six in ten voters can rate her (63%) with 50% rating her favorably and 13% rating her unfavorably for a favorable ratio of only 3.8 to 1.
Voters are also impressed with Connolly's job performance as Chairman. Sixty-six percent say he has done an excellent (22%) or good job (44%). Only one in five are critical (13% just fair, 5% poor). On the other hand, Byrne receives lukewarm ratings for her time in the House of Delegates and State Senate (9% excellent, 30% good) or her time in Congress (12% excellent, 29% good).
The real demonstration of Connolly's strength is the head-to-head race where he leads overwhelmingly. Forty-five percent of voters say they would support Connolly today while 22% say they would support Byrne (32% are undecided and 1% supports Doug Denneny). Among voters who know both Connolly and Byrne, Connolly leads 47% to 29%, indicating that even if Byrne has the resources to introduce herself to voters, Connolly will still have the advantage. More importantly, when voters hear balanced positive profiles of both candidates, Connolly surpasses majority support and leads 51% to 25%. Notably, by a ratio of 3 to 1, primary voters believe Connolly is "the Democrat with the best chance of winning", (56% Connolly to 17% Byrne).
Gerry Connolly is the strongest candidate in this primary. Primary voters know him and they like him. They respect the job he has done as Chairman, and they are ready to support him in his potential race for Congress.
Methodology: Lake Research partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey was conducted among 400 registered voters in Virginia's 11th CD who have voted in past primaries and are likely to vote in the 2008 Primary Election. The survey was conducted January 7-10, 2008. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-4.9 percentage points.
2. Why is a two-month-old poll being released now?
3. This poll totally contradicts the one for Leslie Byrne. At the minimum, I'd like to know exactly how the two polls were conducted before jumping to any conclusions about why they're so different.
4. I find it interesting that Gerry Connolly was already running for Congress even as he was being sworn in for another 4-year term as Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman.
5. Since Connolly obviously knew all along that he was runnig for Congress, why didn't he use some of his $1 million warchest to help Democrats who needed it, like Janet Oleszek?
But as you pointed out Leslie has her numbers too..... we have 4 credible candidates..... the next few weeks should be interesting....
Particularly Josh Ulibarri who it appears was the lead guy on this survey.
The variation could come in what people decide is a "likely primary voter."
The results really are not that surprising when you consider this...
In 2005, Byrne only got 46% of the vote in the 11th CD during the LG primary. This is despite holding multiple offices in the area for many years.
Chap got 42% despite only being a state delegate. Take Chap, add $1 million and double his name recognition and you've got Gerry.
For instance, the above analysis says:
"More importantly, when voters hear balanced positive profiles of both candidates, Connolly surpasses majority support and leads 51% to 25%."
Gawrsh, Mickey, maybe they could reveal those candidate profiles to the folks they are trying to impress with the results of this poll...just to see how balanced and positive this question was...
The important part of the poll was released, the initial ballot.
On the positive side for Connolly, there are only 3 months until the primary so (knock on wood) the economy shouldn't tank too much.
All in all, I really think that this is going to be a relatively close campaign -- and almost all of the people I've talked to about the race seem to agree. Now granted my conversations aren't exactly a scientific poll, but one would think that I would have noticed a general leaning towards Connolly if he's lead were honestly this high. That hasn't been the case at all.
When you combine that with the fact that Connolly's campaign waited two months before publishing the results and that there have been some smaller straw polls taken that show the exact opposite of what Connolly's camp is saying, I tend to have a great deal of doubt about the credibility of these results.
I suspect that it's something like 35-30 Connolly, just based on these two polls and what I hear around my neck of the woods--although my neck o' the woods is decidedly pro-Byrne, whereas areas around Fairfax, Providence, and other areas I would expect to be decidedly pro-Connolly.
We'll see. Interesting race it will be.
Oh, I'm sorry...we're in March! That's right.
Will this be followed up by any more exclusives like "Obama wins Virginia" or "McCain Secures Republican Nomination"?
I say this as a huge fan of Teddy Roosevelt. I have no personal vendetta against moustache guys in politics.