UDPATE 2:08 pm: With 48% reporting, it's Obama 61%-Clinton 38%.
UPDATE 2:16 pm: With 57% reporting, it's Obama 58%-Clinton 41%.
UPDATE 2:58 pm: With 70% reporting, it's Obama 58%-Clinton 41%.
UPDATE 3:15 pm: With 78% reporting, it's Obama 59%-Clinton 40%.
UPDATE 6:30 pm: With 96% reporting, it's Obama 59%-Clinton 40%. Obama wins the Wyoming caucuses.
UPDATE 8:45 pm: With 100% reporting, it's Obama 61%-Clinton 38%.
Go Obama!
Maybe the Obama campaign had them all flown in from North Dakota, since Obama leads McCain head-to-head there. (even though it doesn't count)
... Errr, wait, or is the message supposed to be that she's competing everywhere now? I get confused. The nice thing for her in Mississippi is, she can win (actually, she almost certain can't) -- or she can just blame it on blacks again.
Winning Ohio makes life much easier for the Dems in 2008. A broadened map though expands the Dems possibilities as well forcing the GOP to play defense in a lot of areas that they wouldn't otherwise need too.
Clinton starts the GE behind in the Kerry states of Washington, Oregon, and New Hampshire to McCain -- which combined equals 22 electoral votes to Ohio's 20. In addition to needing to flip Ohio, Clinton would be in a must win situation in Florida in order to off-set these potential loses.
Obama also has a substantial lead relative to Clinton in Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Michigan, and Colorado -- amounting to 61 delegates.
Clinton's advantages versus Obama are mostly in the southeast where she would start the election at a 10%+ point deficit against McCain in all but Tennessee and Arkansas. That's a swing of 17 electoral votes in a best case scenario -- with none of the potential benefits in the mid-Atlantic, the heartland and the northwest.
Wild and crazy Saturday night!
Is Virginia a 'red' state?
The fact is, the coalitions of states that form majorities in Presidential elections is always shifting. The 'red/blue' divide of the Bush years will soon be replaced with something different, perhaps markedly. If you don't believe me, look at some of the states that Bill Clinton won in 1992 and 1996.
Who exactly gets to decide which states are worthwhile? Barack decided early on to contest every single caucus and primary, to work in every state -- because he knew that he couldn't beat Hillary by competing in the very large states that make up the plurality of the Democratic coalition where he was a virtual stranger. Hillary is the consummate insider, and she knew what the rules were. She decided to play the 'inevitability' card, and go for the knockout on 2/5. It didn't work. Now she, and supporters like you, are whining that certain votes ought to be discounted because those states won't go blue in November.
I find that argument highly elitist and insulting. If we're to follow the logic of your argument, any state in which Hillary lost, she won't be able to carry in November. Well, good luck forming a coalition without Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, and Maryland -- not to mention Virginia and Colorado.
The SUSA polling clearly shows that Barack maintains a much more solid base of strong Dem states, and makes many, many more states competitive, than does Hillary. Hillary's strategy rolls the whole dice on Ohio and Florida, while she is much riskier in states like IA, WI, MN, WA, NH, and OR. Barack's strategy tells tens of millions of people in 15-20 states, "I need your help and your vote to dramatically change the direction of the country." Oh, and the SUSA polling (which is not sancrosanct, and needs to be affirmed by other polling) indicates that both candidates do equally well against McCain head-to-head.
So, what's your argument, again?
As to the specific states you mentioned -- no, I don't think Barack will be carrying Wyoming, Idaho, or Alabama in November. But he runs much, much better in Wyoming and Idaho than Hillary does, and there are important Senate and House races out there where he might help us get a few more quality representatives/senators into office. Regarding Alabama and Georgia -- those are base Republican states, no doubt. But Bill Clinton carried Georgia, Montana, and Colorado in 1992; and he carried Arizona and Florida in 1996. From the states that went red in 2000 or 2004, he carried West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Ohio both times.
As for North Dakota and Nebraska -- polls indicate Barack would be competitive there, while Hillary would not. Similarly, Hillary and Bill obviously are well-liked by large segments of the populace in Appalachian states like WV, KY, TN, where Hillary would be competitive but Barack wouldn't. Should their votes matter? Those are considered 'red' states. Same with Arkansas, Oklahoma, Arizona, all states that Hillary won.
And it wasn't 'my logic' that I was following -- I was extrapolating your line of reasoning. Please answer me a simple question: Which states matter?
The elitism and arrogance of discounting entire sections of the country, and swathes of voters, is quite irritating.
Polls show Barack does better than Hillary in either Nevada or New Mexico, even though Hillary won those caucuses. He makes states like VA, NC, SC, and TX competitive in the south, and states like ND, SD, and NE competitive in the midwest and plains -- and even Alaska way out west. Hillary makes states like AR, KY, TN, OK, and WV competitive that he does not. So, again, which of these states votes shouldn't count in the primaries?
as for you list of states that matter:
Colorado (there may just be enough elitist,birckenstock wearing, subaru driving white voters to pull it off for barak there)
Florida
Ohio
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Nevada
Pennsylvania
these states make or break presidential elections.
ps. your idea of picking a presidential nominee on the grounds that he would help a senate or congressional race in idaho is just whack.
I do however like your ability to selectively pick data points from one massive poll. "Those results in Washington and Oregon must be wrong -- there's no way our tactic of dismissing entire sections of the country would piss off people in certain states that are part of those ares of the country."
Hillary's Supporters' America -- some states and voters are more equal than others!
ps. the scenario you described about a day of washing the volvo and doing some shopping in clarendon sounds kind of nice. sounds nice compared to someone's day going in to a mining or factory job in soutwest va who probably doesn't even have time to vote.
On the other hand, if Obama gets into office, there's a pretty good chance that Virginians from all regions will have an ally like Tim Kaine sitting somewhere in an Obama cabinet.
Clinton was the known candidate -- and it probably is true that a message of "hope" doesn't resonate in some places as well as others. Boucher gave Obama his backing -- but I don't believe he did any heavy campaigning for him. If Obama makes it to the general election, I would not be surprised to see him making an investment of time and energy in the southwest of the state.
Are the "secret Muslim" b.s. and race a factor? Yeah -- I'm sure it was a factor for some of the voters. I wouldn't be surprised if there were GOP voters participating in the Democratic primary as well. If Democrats vote their interests they vote Obama. In order to known that he's the best choice, he needs to do more outreach.
Obama leads in both delegates AND total votes cast. He has played the game by the rules better than Hillary has, and he has inspired more people to vote for him. Eventually, in a democracy, that makes him the winner. If Hillary can acquire more delegates than him after the contests in Pennsylvania through Montana and South Dakota and in fair re-dos of Florida and Michigan, then she deserves to be the nominee. But it seems very unlikely that that scenario is going to come to pass, so instead you decide to cry about the rules. Spare me. Hillary was as big a favorite as you'll ever see in an open Presidential election, and she got out-worked and out-organized.
And I think it's hilarious that you made a dig about my parody of your nonsense, comparing some 'elitist' in Arlington to the coal miner in Southwest Va. I don't suppose you see the irony in trying to tell me that that miner's vote in the 9th CD is inherently worth more than the voter in Arlington while simultaneously telling me that Democrats and voters in rural red states shouldn't have their votes count as much as those Democrats in the states that matter.
And just so as we're clear, I drive a truck, drink cheap domestic light beer, and don't drink any coffee, generally -- although I have been known to sample some nice pinot noir from time to time.
1. Turnout. In those areas where Clinton won landslides in southwest VA turnout was in some cases 12%. The average was 15%. The state average was 22%. In African-American areas the turnout was as high as 30%. 14% turnout in an election where the average state turnout is 22% doesn't tell me that there is a ton of enthusiasm for the candidate -- regardless of whether there's a blow out. I'm sure there was a ton of enthusiasm amongst the 14% that showed up, but that won't be sufficient during the election.
On the other hand, when a candidate is getting 33% turnout in some areas in an election where there's 22% turnout across the state -- that tells me that that area is excited about their choices and that they WILL show up in the general election if the candidate who they overwhelmingly support gets the nomination.
2. Independent support. Clinton struggles with the independent vote. The only state where she has not lost independents 60 to 30 to Obama was in Massachusetts (this includes Virginia). A Democrat cannot win an election in Virginia without getting a majority of the independent vote. In 2006 Jim Webb would have lost the general election if he hadn't split the independent vote 56 to 44% versus Allen. The difference in the independent vote was the margin of victory for him in the state.
Clinton does poorly in Nevada -- she won a caucus based on the support of just three counties in the state. Oh, that's right, Nevada doesn't count now. Forgot that. Never mind that Obama does better in every poll that's been taken since then precisely because he has the ability to peel off GOP votes in the rural northern half of the state -- he isn't reliant on the support of illegal aliens in casino caucus sites (amazingly no one had to show any ID in order to vote at those caucus sites).
But what you say again Nevada matters because Clinton won the caucus (by a narrow margin). There are 5 electoral votes in Nevada. It matters.
Yet, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Virginia, Washington, and Oregon -- which have more than 5 electoral votes are somehow unimportant?
No one is saying that Obama is going to win Alabama, Georgia, or Idaho in 2008. Please put the straw man aside for a moment and engage the real argument.
Hillary could lose states like Wisconsin, Iowa, and Washington state. Yes, WASHINGTON. Winning swing states is important, but winning blue states is essential.
I congratulate Sen. Clinton on her wins in "big states" like California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. But I'm going to go way out on a limb and say that Obama would be able to carry those in the general.
She has major bragging rights when it comes to Ohio, but I think McCain will lose that state regardless. The Ohio GOP is in such disarray it's not even funny.
She won Ohio by 230k votes, so what? Obama won Virginia by 276k votes. That's 54% win in Ohio versus 64% win in Virginia (a relatively smaller state). I don't know that a 10% spread in Ohio has some special meaning.
Go Orange for the details.
He said they couldn't fit everyone into the caucus room because it was so crowded and it was pretty chaotic. The energy is really reaching its way down. Much of Wyoming is as hard core Republican as it gets.
Now, onto Mississippi. I have been calling there and have had a good response to date.
This sucks... if Democrats can't read the writing on the wall, what hope will there be for Republicans.
I'm fed up and just taking a nice long break. Wake me up sometime after Labor day. Until then I'm focusing where I can do some good: Virginia politics.
One last thing: I completely blame Obama for this. He got shellacked in the media war leading up to Ohio. All of the volunteers breaking their backs on the ground can't win this without the powerhouse Air action. Dammit all anyway!
1. Yes, things may end up getting pretty nasty between the candidates and the supporters. There may be bad blood left before and after the convention.
On the other hand . . .
2. As nasty as Ohio and Texas were -- Ohio in particular had some underhanded stuff going on below the radar -- did you see the SurveyUSA numbers for Dems in those two states this past week against McCain?
Voters pay attention during contentious elections.
In fact, did you see the numbers that the Dems pulled in every state where they have actively campaigned? This is big especially for Obama who hasn't written off any state this primary season and is effectively introducing himself to an awful lot of voters.
In a swing state like Pennsylvania things could get very ugly between the two candidate. On the other hand, Pennsylvania is likely to be a battle ground state in the Fall regardless of who the nominee is. Both candidates will be investing about 6 weeks in the state setting up volunteer networks and meeting and greeting a lot of voters. We have similar opportunities now in North Carolina, Mississippi, as well as a few other remaining states. North Carolina being a possible swing state in the general if Obama is on the top of the ticket.
Once these candidates leave the states and a few months pass some of the impact of their visits will diminish -- but as far as setting the table before the convention this has the potential to set the Dems up pretty nice in the general election.
Of course things could end ugly, and a large chunk of voters may simply sit out the general election -- or cross the line and voter for McCain.
And yes, in a perfect world I would rather have seen the nomination process having ended on March 4th. But there is another side to this story to keep in mind here too.
I don't think IN will go blue in November (at least not for President), but I agree with you that NC is a dark horse. TX, and (improbably) SC are the other two southern states where Barack can be competitive, if the SUSA 50 state poll is to be believed. I'm also really hoping for a Florida and Michigan re-dos, as that would allow Barack to campaign in those states.
I don't know that he'll ever get Appalachia fully behind him, but he really needs to figure out how to stem the damage in that demo for the general. The next two months allow him the luxury to campaign in those areas and see if his message translates there if given time and resources.
With 6 weeks he should have the opportunity to spend time in the cities, the suburbs, and rural PA. He will not win rural PA, but if he's going to improve on the Ohio numbers he needs to keep his margins close in western PA outside of the cities and the suburbs. The only way he makes that happen is actually spending time in those districts meeting voters face to face and listening to their concerns.
This would also be a real good time for John Edwards to endorse. Some combination of Barack, John, Michelle, Elizabeth doing listening tours in rural and rust belt communities, talking about investing in jobs and education ... well, I think it would do wonders for Barack's candidacy, both in PA and then in NC.
I've been very impressed at how Barack is just shrugging off the bad week, not over-reacting to the smear tactics, and continuing with his plan. He knew that Hillary has natural advantages in many areas, and deftly decided to run an entirely different campaign. The thing about the kitchen sink is, you can really only throw it once. I'd imagine Barack will find a way to smartly parry her latest attacks and tie her tactics to McCain's, and that will appeal again to the people he's already been appealing to.
The Clinton team probably has encouraged supporters to complain directly to radio and cable news stations -- I know they have complained directly to places like NBC and MSNBC. They also stoke the "us against the world" perception, because there is a political upside to doing so. It's a classic technique in sports where coaches "work the refs" to try to get a competitive advantage.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/...
I'm going to take a bit of time to recharge, and then it's time to take the country back.
Obama is going to come out of this primary season with more elected delegates ... the greater popular vote and more states won. The Clintons will be second best .... fair and square.
Do you really think the Al Gores, Ted Kennedys and John Edwards of this party will let that pass? They're going to ensure that those metrics are honored. PERIOD. The Super Delegates will move to the candidate with the most votes, the most delegates and the most states won.... that means Obama.... all things considered.
People have been way to nice to Hillary because she's a woman. But she doesn't hold a candle to Geraldine Ferrarro as an example ... a woman who truly made it on her own. Hillary has been coat tailing Bill her whole life.
Obama has to fine the right line of attack on Clinton to deflate this experience bullshit she puts out. He's on it and that message needs to get amplified. You watch .... Michele Obama will ensure that happens.
Frankly, the number of states as a measure for anything is patently ridiculous. No knock on, say, Wyoming, but to consider with say, California, for purposes of determining who has won the hearts and minds of Democrats just doesn't make sense to me.
1. Michigan and Florida need to hold real contested elections -- otherwise they will equal net nothing.
2. Putting aside Michigan and Florida, Clinton would need to beat Obama 60-40 in the remaining contests. The only way that I see this happening is if there is massive GOP cross-over voting -- or if Obama makes a major stumble (e.g. based on past regional and demographic trends we know if the vote in Mississippi splits 50-50 in Clinton's favor or better for Clinton that there is a huge lurking variable at work in the state's vote).
That margin goes up if Clinton does not meet the 60-40 threshold in Mississippi. Those numbers could jump to something along the lines of 70-30 if Team Clinton hits 55-45 in the PA's closed primary and Obama hits 55-45 in the open Mississippi primary.
I agree with you though that Superdelegates are likely to weigh the popular vote along with the pledged delegate count.
Let's not forget that he (among others) was shut out of health care discussions in '93. I wonder if people like Bradley, Moynihan, and others had been included, would we be closer to universal healthcare.
Also of note, Bradley has been playing a prominent role as an advisor and surrogate for Obama. This makes me wonder if perhaps he would be part of Obama's administration? Since he lost in the Democratic primaries in '00 he has pretty much stepped away from politics, I wonder if this could be a segue back in?
Had she deemed every state important, she would not have thrown in the towel in Minnesota, Kansas, Colorado, Idaho, Washington, North Dakota and Alaska. Obama clubbed her like a baby seal in these states and his deleagte lead today can be traced to his huge victory in these states.
And that is why the Clinton way of conducting a campaign makes her so dangerous as our nominee. Their slash and burn menatality of campaigning so that she ends up with 50.1% of the vote will kill Democratic candidates running further down the ballot. You have to compete in every state in a general election - it forces your opponent to spend time and money there but is also helps Dems running in other races as well.
You and I are with the right candidate for the times, he is going to win the nomination and the general election sweeping in a bigger majority in the Congress as well.
We'll finally have a leader who can lead, work with both sides of the aisle to get things done here domestically that we care about, and, more importantly, restore our image throughout the world that has been decimated by my favorite village idiot.