Let's hope they are right

We'll see if it pans out, but...

I think its over anyway, but +50 more would be really be big if it happens.

Jon Alter's Newsweek article today has a good recap of HRC's unrecoverable deficit at this point.  She has to win each of the 12 remaining states by an average of +23% each.  http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010

I'd like to see the nomination contest go on 'til Oregon and Kentucky on 5/20. I mean, we're going until at least 4/22 anyways. I think it's good for our chances to knock of Elizabeth Dole, Gordon Smith, and Mitch McConnell that the primary fight reaches those states -- that's infrastructure building and excitement that just won't happen otherwise.

After 5/22, I believe only Montana and South Dakota have caucuses in June, and then Puerto Rico's primary (which really shouldn't be decisive, but I doubt it will be).

Re-dos in Michigan and Florida in early June would also be interesting, and potentially helpful for our chances in November (I say potentially because I think Michigan goes D either way, and I think Florida goes R either way).  

after the Texas/Ohio results.  

reports that Clinton's victories on Tuesday have "seemed to slow the Democratic Party establishment's move in his direction while giving her campaign time to try to turn the race in her favor."  

But for now at least, aides to both campaigns said, Mrs. Clinton appeared to have frozen the race in place, and slowed the flow of superdelegates into Mr. Obama's camp. Mr. Obama's aides had hoped that a poor showing by her on Tuesday would result in a quick move of superdelegates to him.

Frozen in place...that's where we seem to be at least until Pennsylvania on April 22.

disrespect Wyoming and Mississippi. They vote in the next few days. Time for Obama to pick the Mo back up.

That they are going to hold back until after WY and MS.  Then they will release fundraising numbers and the superdelegate info all for maximum impact.

Over here:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.co...

the number of superdelegates for Obama has now crossed the 200 mark, and Clinton hasn't gotten any in weeks (she is at 240).  Only 40 down in terms of superdeletates right now.

And if there was no significant super delegate movement after that, then I predict Obama will hit 2,025 delegates on May 20th.  That's including both pledged delegates and declared super delegates.

Do the math and fiddle with Slate's calculator. When you include declared super delegates, assuming that Hillary Clinton wins everything except Mississippi, Oregon and Wyoming by small margins (with Obama winning those 3 states), then Obama hits the magic number no later than May 20th. Possibly earlier.  But again, that is only if he really has those 50 super delegates ready to announce.

with so many undeclared superdelegates. As much as we want the voters to decide this; if superdelegates sit back and wait, this is going 'til June.

If Edwards endorsed Obama now, then Obama may get the momentum back- that may cause these "frozen" delegates to "thaw"

1. Win Mississippi
2. Win Wyoming.
3. Win Pennsylvania
4. Win some more.

That's it -- if Obama wins, he wins.  If he loses, he loses.  As it should be.