The reality of delegate math

And there is a terrific diary at dailykos that explains it, by Pocketnines, entitled Slate's delegate calculator sucks, why it's even worse for Clinton

come below the fold where I offer - with permission - the details from that diary

After today, there are 10 states left, plus Guam and Puerto Rico.

Number of 3 delegate districts left: 1
Number of 4 delegate districts left: 19 (including all 8 in Puerto Rico)
Number of 5 delegate districts left: 21
Number of 6 delegate districts left: 14
Number of 7 delegate districts left: 10
Number of 8 delegate districts left: 1
Number of 9 delegate districts left: 3
Number of 10 delegate districts left: 1 (Montana)

Setting aside Guam with its 4 delegates, there are 11 delegate apportionments based on statewide popular vote totals.

Wyoming - 5 statewide
South Dakota - 6 statewide
Montana - 6 statewide
West Virginia - 10 statewide
Mississippi - 11 statewide
Kentucky - 17 statewide
Oregon - 18 statewide
Puerto Rico - 19 islandwide
Indiana - 25 statewide
North Carolina - 38 statewide
Pennsylvania - 55 statewide

In order to cross all thresholds except the initial break that give you a +2 delegate swing, you need to win by an extra 200/X%, where X = the number of total delegates at stake.  Let's see how this works by easy example - West Virginia and its 10 statewide delegates.  200/10 = 20%.  To go from 5-5 to 6-4 there you have to win by over 10% (55-45).  But to get ANOTHER +2 you need to add 20% to your win and win by 30% (65-35).

To work through one more example, Indiana and its 25.  You start with someone winning 13-12.  To get an additional +2 swing (ie, 14-11), you have to win by 200/25%, or 8% even.  54-46 + 1 vote is a 14-11 split.  You can also calculate this way: 13.5/25 = .5400.  14.5/25 = .5800 (58-42 is a 16% win).

So, let's look at if Clinton wins every statewide total by 10%:

Wyoming +1
South Dakota 0
Montana 0
West Virginia +1, giving her the +1 vote benefit of the doubt.
Mississippi +1
Kentucky +1
Oregon +2
Puerto Rico +1
Indiana +3
North Carolina +4
Pennsylvania +5

Total +19 delegates.

Do you see how totally impossible it is, and how completely significant Obama's South Carolina and February blowouts were?  Remember, Obama beat Clinton by 8% in Iowa (a huge win) and netted only 1 extra pledged delegate.

Now, let's assume, in a very unsurgical way, that this 10% is exactly the margin in all the congressional districts.

1 3-delegate district: +1
19 4-delegate districts: 0
21 5-delegate districts: +21
14 6-delegate districts: 0
10 7-delegate districts: +10
1 8-delegate district: 0
3 9-delegate districts: +3
1 10-delegate district: +1, let's give her the 1 extra vote benefit of the doubt.

Total +36 delegates

Overall total +55 delegates.

Obama currently leads by 160 pledged delegates.

Update [2008-3-4 17:25:28 by PocketNines]::  Let me throw in another wrinkle.  Let's assume Clinton wins every single remaining district and statewide vote by 16.5% exactly.  How does this help her in the districts?

1 3-delegate district: +1
19 4-delegate districts: 0
21 5-delegate districts: +21
14 6-delegate districts: 0
10 7-delegate districts: +10
1 8-delegate district: +1
3 9-delegate districts: +3
1 10-delegate district: +1

Total +37 delegates

ONE EXTRA DELEGATE from going 10% to 16.5%!

Statewide, 16.5%:

Wyoming +1
South Dakota 0
Montana 0
West Virginia +1
Mississippi +1
Kentucky +3
Oregon +2
Puerto Rico +3
Indiana +5
North Carolina +6
Pennsylvania +9

Total +31 delegates.

TWELVE EXTRA DELEGATES from going 10% to 16.5%!

So the overall total with 16.5% is a mere +68 delegates.

So with all due respect to Jonathan Alter and wmtriallawyer and all the people who are playing with these numbers, everyone seems to be failing to grasp that it's the BLOWOUTS that matter.

It's blowouts, people.  

All but 6 remaining congressional districts are either 4, 5, 6, or 7 delegate districts.  There are 64 total districts in this range.  Here are the magic numbers:

4 delegates - 25%+ to get from 2-2 to 3-1
5 delegates - 40%+ to get from 3-2 to 4-1
6 delegates - 16.7%+ to get from 3-3 to 4-2
7 delegates - 28.6%+ to get from 4-3 to 5-2

THOSE are the relevant numbers to break out of the incredibly rosy +55 delegate pickup if we absurdly assume that Clinton wins every remaining contest by 55-45 margins.

And I humbly submit that if Clinton IS breaching those numbers and blowing out Obama in states where he will have ample opportunity to campaign, then he has been caught with a live boy or dead girl.

It is over.

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