According to Tom Brokaw, that there are 50 superdelegates ready to go to Obama on Wed if Clinton tries to continue on...

Because Clinton is about to win Ohio and Texas.

Going to be a big game changer as far as the press in concerned.

The press is primed to accept the Clinton spin, because the Clintons have been working them so hard, check this from Josh Marshall:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/a...

It's hard to say just what issues are responsible for the shift in momentum. It's hard to believe the NAFTA stuff hasn't played a role. The Farrakhan/Muslim/anti-Semitism stuff, which Clinton has pushed in concert with key press outlets, also probably plays a big role.

But I think the real story is a very effective working of the refs on the part of the Clinton campaign. Going back more than a week the Clinton campaign has made a concerted and aggressive push arguing that they've been the victim of systematically negative press coverage while Obama has gotten a free ride. Whether or not you agree with that claim there's little doubt that the effort has paid off big dividends. The last week's press coverage has featured a mix of stories on the question of relative scrutiny/fairness itself as well as more probing looks into Obama himself.

Its going to be a rough week or two for Obama supporters.

except I think it will be more than a rough "week or two" if Clinton wins both OH and TX.

well its going to be rough for the whole party because now this thing is going to the convention, pain and simple  

Clinton is going to go even more negative (to try to discredit Obama and win PA big) and Obama is going to employ his own "kitchen sink" strategy, further inflaming tennsions in the party.  Compounding this further, the Clintons will get momentum, which means they will be agitating about Florida and MI again.

I completely understand why Clinton is fighting this thing out, but its not going to be pretty and the math is stacked against her (even with FL and MI)

Oh well.

"pain and simple."  :)

Clinton arguably needs significant victories tonight, or she should begin making plans for gracefully dropping out somehow, for her own sake. It's a close call if she wins, but not by much, but I hope she finds some way to leave the race if that happens.

First, thank you, RuralID, for an honest diary. I could pick nits, but I'm not going to. I think this might the first acknowledgment I have yet seen from an Obama supporter that Obama and his supporters have played a role in sowing intra-party discord among Democrats. It is refreshing and constructive to see.

Obviously, we need to wait and see what happens today, but assuming the result that many seem to predicting now -- Clinton wins in Ohio by 5-6, and maybe squeaks by in Texas, (albeit losing in delegates in Texas because of its unique system), then she will clearly try to make the case that moving on to Pennsylvania is the entirely appropriate thing to do.

I'm not so sure what is to be gained from that beyond, as you note, adding more negativity to the race on both sides and dividing Democrats further, since the outcome of the nomination fight will be clear.

(That said, I would understand the logic of Clinton continuing on if she wins both TX and OH, even by small margins. The five months between now and the Convention are several political lifetimes, and anything could happen.)

All else being equal, and given the impossibility of predicting the unpredictable, for either candidate to lay a claim to the support of the S-Ds under a theory of voter choice/party unity, that candidate must be leading in both the committed delegate count AND the popular vote, AND by a clear margin (draw that line where you like) in one of those categories. I believe this was the Obama formula as well, some time back.

Under most foreseeable scenarios, Obama will control the committed delegate count, so the issue is the popular vote. There are several different ways to count this (see link below), but using the method most favorable to Obama, which I think happens to be the fairest one as well, Obama is ahead by about a million votes.

Clinton needs convincing victories in both Ohio and Texas to close this gap enough. If she doesn't get them, I suspect pressure will build on her to drop out once the news spin cycle plays itself out by the end of the week.

One note: It's possible Clinton could do better at the caucuses tonight than many think. Her campaign has been so burned there you have to think she learned some lessons and will be better organized.

Here is the article from the Center For Politics on the popular vote in Democratic primaries:

http://www.centerforpolitics.o...

She can't win the pledged delegate count with her advantage right now. Without a plurality of delegates, it will look to Obama supporters as if she stole the nomination, even if she is operating within the rules.

Even if she loses in the convention, her long negative campaign will have further alienated her supporters towards Obama.

And if she wins, her nominating campaign will be used against her in the general. She thinks she can handle mudslinging. She can't. She hasn't been tested running a campaign yet. Her behavior fits the conservative stereotype of her.

She is acting in a very auto-destructive way.