For March 4 - a look at Rhode Island

With its many working-class whites, women and retirees, Rhode Island is friendly turf for Mrs. Clinton, who has the support of most Democratic leaders here and maintains a slight lead in the polls. But The Providence Journal reported that almost half of the 43,000 new voters who had registered here in the last year were ages 18 to 29, a demographic Mr. Obama has pursued with great success in other states.

In another potentially bad sign for Mrs. Clinton, who does best with loyal Democrats, most of the new voters registered as unaffiliated. If they turn out heavily on Tuesday and Mrs. Clinton loses Rhode Island, she will lose more credibility, even if Ohio or Texas ends up in her column.

Those paragraphs caught my eye when I was reading In '08 Politics, Rhode Island Defies Its Size by Abby Goodnough in today's New York Times.   Rhode Island has gotten much less attention than Ohio and Texas, but since as of today both candidates and their spouses will have visited, I thought it might be worth a closer look.
I will return to the NY Times piece anon, but after reading it, I decided to take a look at the Providence Journal, and it is clear that there is a real fever about the primary.  As I write this, their home page begins with a box entitled "On the Political Front" in which we find, in this order, links for the following stories:

Chelsea Clinton stays on target at Roger Williams, in which we read that

The former First Daughter -- now 28 -- answered questions from an attentive and alert audience of about 325 students assembled in a former cafeteria at the school.

They asked, and she answered, questions about Senator Clinton's positions on policies ranging from the war on drugs to the war in Iraq.

The next story is entitled Bill Clinton makes the case for Hillary in Rhode Island.  This newspaper piece reminds people of the various visits to the Ocean state, in the recent past and the forthcoming event with Obama today.  It describes the content of Clinton's remarks, and also gives us information on crowd size:

About 2,600 people packed the gymnasium in the Chace Athletic Center - 2,000 students and faculty and staff members and 600 members of the public, according to Tracie Sweeney, director of public relations at Bryant.

Another 330 people packed a room on the other side of the athletic center, where the speech was simulcast for the overflow crowd.

Next is a link for a photo of Kennedy father-son appear on Obama's behalf, with Sen Ted Kennedy and son Rep. Patrick Kennedy appearing on behalf of Obama at the University of Rhode Island's Providence Campus.

Like the first item from the Journal website, the fourth is from the news blogs, and is entitled Obama will hold rally at Rhode Island College Saturday and gives the details for today's event at Rhode Island College in Providence.  This blog entry has a number of comments, all complimentary of Obama, from which I offer a snip, and a complete comment.  First:

Obama didn't need to do this - he didn't need to make this appearance. Obama's ahead in the national delegate count, and losing tiny R.I.'s delegates to Clinton would hardly cost him the nomination.

But Obama knows the value of the 50-state strategy, and his campaign has energized millions of new voters wherever he has appeared.

I must admit that I was a Hillary fan first (and foremost). I like her stance on the environment and healthcare. I also liked her because of Bill Clinton. He was a good president in my eyes.

I had no idea what Obama stood for. However, after watching atleast one of the debates, I find that I like him too. He and Hillary have similar ideas on so many issues. What I also like about him is the same thing I don't love about him. He is "new" to the Washington machine of politics. But that makes him seem fresh and full of promise. Perhaps less tainted by the "system." What he lacks in experience he makes up for in his outlook, drive and determination to bring about change for the better. Now, I'm not saying that Mrs. Clinton isn't gung-ho to bring about change for the better...it's just that she'll have to go through some of her husbands ole naysayers to do it.

So, Obama has my vote!

There is also a link for an AP story entitled Can Clinton overcome Obamania? that offers some fairly standard fair, but does begin with how overwhelming the Clinton inevitability seemed only a few months ago.

Finally, the Projo (for Providence Journal) offers a survey on which of the three (including McCain) candidates you prefer - you do have to be signed in to vote or to see it. The results as of when I looked at this totally unscientific survey were:

Clinton 29.79% 560 votes

McCain  29.41% 553 votes

Obama   38.56% 725 votes

Returning now to the NY Times piece, it notes that last cycle barely 6% of the voters participated, but now, as it notes, "the candidates are lavishing attention on Little Rhody."  It lists all the visits - HRC last Sundday, and the visits already noted in the Projo by Bill and Chelsea.  ON the other side we read

Senator Barack Obama's wife, Michelle, stopped here on Feb. 20; she was introduced by her brother, who happens to be the men's basketball coach at Brown University. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, will hold a last-minute rally on Saturday in Providence.

Mr. Obama has spent $311,000 on advertising here compared with $130,000 for Mrs. Clinton, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group. His ground campaign, using college-age volunteers, is at least as fierce as hers.

I found the following snippet of interest, even as I acknowledge that it is anecdotal:

But even at the Clinton rally, there was evidence of fervor for Mr. Obama. Brian Campbell, who took his grandmother, a die-hard Clinton fan, to the rally, said he much preferred Mr. Obama's style and personality.

"When she speaks I don't feel the same sincerity or the same belief in her words," Mr. Campbell, 30, said of Mrs. Clinton.

After hearing Mr. Penn's pitch for Mr. Obama, Bo Tao, a senior at Brown, said he was leaning toward Mr. Obama despite some trepidation about the excitement around his candidacy.

"I know there's a lot of hype that might be factoring into it," Mr. Tao said, "but at the same time I have a gut feeling that he's very unique, and America hasn't seen anything like that in a long time."

The piece ends with a warning from a local political scientist that half of the kids showing up at the Obama rallies are from out of state, and may not be registered to vote in Rhode Island, although I note we have seen in some cases (Iowa, for example), that a significant number of out of state students who choose to vote where they attend.  And since most out of state students at RI colleges are likely to be from nearby states, unless they are from NH they also live in heavily Democratic states so they do not have more motivation to to vote at home rather than in RI.

I am not predicting an Obama win in RI.  Not yet.   I will be interested to see the size of his crowd, and the coverage he gets for his visit today.  I did note the size of the crowd that Bill Clinton got, but I tend to discount his crowds -  the day of the Jefferson Jackson dinner in Richmond he also made an appearance across the street from the hotel that was the base for most of us, and I know of many Obama supporters who went to see him just because he was a former president.  I think the more fair comparison will be between the crowds of the two candidates.

What is most interesting is that both campaigns apparently see Rhode Island as competitive enough to warrant having the candidates and their family surrogates take time away from the two big states in order to ramp up their own vote.  The polling data still shows Clinton clearly ahead, but it is not clear how accurately the polls can measure in a situation where the turnout is going to be multiple times that of any previous cycle:  is the data adjusted for expected shape of turnout?  

I hope this brief look at the news coverage is of some use.  And if anyone reading this is on the ground in RI, your comments would be especially appreciated.

Peace.

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