Obama, Webb, Kaine and Wilder

By: chicagodan
Published On: 2/27/2008 6:21:35 PM

Okay, this is going to sound complicated, but bear with me.  I'm a former speechwriter for Gov. Wilder and have been out of Virginia for some time, but I follow Virginia politics closely and have a theory about how the Obama veepstakes will play out.

I think Webb is going to be the choice.  The main barrier to his pick will be getting Kaine's okay ... because Obama owes Kaine big time for the early endorsement.  But I think Gov. Kaine will be fine with it.

If Obama/Webb wins, the Senate seat opens up.  Now, it's a tricky situation ... Gov. Kaine will have to appoint someone, but then there will be a special election in 2010 ... and then a regular senate election in 2012.  Kaine's gubernatorial term expires Jan 2010, so my guess is that he would rather finish out his term than jump to the Senate in 2009 ... Virginians don't like their governors messing around with their one term in office.

But if Kaine wants to run in 2010, he'll need to appoint someone who will promise to step aside.  The perfect person to serve as a two-year fill in is Doug Wilder, capping his career with a two-year stint as a U.S. Senator.

So there's my theory ... Webb to VP, Wilder as interim Senator, Kaine to the Senate in 2010.


Comments



Perfect Timing to Tap Webb for VP (b crowe - 2/27/2008 8:10:00 PM)
I like your analysis of the political chess and the outcome. Here is why I believe Senator Webb is right for the job right now.

This is the most important election of our lifetime because the very survival of the principle of three equal branches of government with checks and balances hangs in the balance. The enormous powers the Bush/Cheney administration has usurped for the Executive must be decisively repudiated by defeating the Bush clone, McCain.

Jim Webb was talking about this unconstitutional accumulation of power in his campaign here in Virginia, so he understands and can articulate the issue of abuse of executive power.

Webb's rational and pragmatic approach to foreign relations, including when and how to use military force is the perfect contrast to the McCain/Bush irrational and illegal actions and policies.

The Senator's military career in Vietnam and subsequent service at the Pentagon gives him the credentials to formulate, advise, understand, and carryout national security policy.

Jim Webb will stand his ground and hit back when the Republicans try to swiftboat. E.g., he is not afraid to give the President a piece of his mind in person at the White House about the Iraq war, when Bush asked about his son then serving in Iraq.

Webb resigned on principle, as Sec. of the Navy, I think, when he did not agree with a Reagan decision. This indicates to me that he will not be a career politician because he wants to get things done, and his personality is not suited for an extended stay in the slow moving Senate. Therefore, now is the perfect time to tap his abilities for this crucial role in the history of American politics.

The time is now, because to Senator Webb's credit, it is likely he will not stay available as an elected politician very long.



Kaine and the Senate (The Grey Havens - 2/27/2008 10:02:46 PM)
You gotta guess that from Kaine's point of view, the one microscopic downside of the Webb phenom was the loss of job mobility.  With Allen gone, there's no place for Kaine to go.  Kaine would love to go to Washington (of course!), whether as a Senator or VP or in the Obama cabinet...

Honestly, if Webb stays in the Senate, my money's on Kaine for Secretary of Transportation after he leaves Richmond.



This is an excellent theory (True Blue - 2/28/2008 11:52:32 AM)
If Obama, Webb, Kaine, and Wilder could manage this it would be a triumph.


I actually came to that exact conclusion (Chris Guy - 2/29/2008 1:48:57 AM)
several months ago. Here's the link to prove it.

Great minds...



Good idea (Evan M - 2/29/2008 1:36:54 PM)
This is good analysis and a good idea.

Personally, I'm a little nervous about Webb's ability to retain the seat in 2012, given his disdain for campaigning and retail party building (where was he at the JJ?). I think he is a FANTASTIC Senator, but only a perfect storm got him elected.



Obama, Webb, Kaine, and Wilder (mjames - 2/29/2008 2:02:29 PM)
Awesome! I hatched a similar theory earlier and posted it here on RK (sorry, I cannot find a link to the thread), but I suggested Deeds or Peterson as the 2-year seat holder for a Kaine run in 2010. Of course, other readers rightfully questioned whether either of these pols would be willing to keep a Senate seat warm for Kaine rather than keeping it themselves. The idea of Wilder as the 2-year replacement is brilliant!


Good Grief!!! (Pru - 2/29/2008 7:40:53 PM)
Does anyone really think that keeping that Senate seat in the Democratic category will be that easy if Webb steps aside?  For heaven's sake, George Allen almost won the last election even with the Macacca moment, and with Sen. Webb as his opponent.  I'm a huge Kaine fan, but a victory would be HIGHLY uncertain, and George Allen is certain to rise from the ashes and will not make the same stupid mistakes he made in the last election.  I for one have no desire to have to defend that seat again or work on another campaign to keep Allen from having that seat.  Webb is great, but there are other great people Obama can tap without jeopardizing that seat.  I think this whole theory is insane.