I wanted to get the VA blogosphere's take on what happened in Las Vegas last night. Im just curious what folks without "campaign goggles" on think and I've found RK to have some of the best analyist out there and out of curiosity just wondering what ya'll think. I'll describe events roughly, but there is much better analysis on Kos and Las Vegas local media (sorry I can't copy links, but if someone wants to throw some in the comments or "update" this diary, please do).
In short, due to logistical screw ups of the worst kind the Clark County convention had to be suspended midway through the proceedings and there will be a "redo" at some yet to be determined date. The problems occurred because Clark County Dems didn't expect all the precinct delegates/alternates to show based on what they had seen in previous years. except oops, this year it REALLY counts. Specifics included delegates not being seated, alternates voting w/o credentials and (get this) a ballot box (with ballots) being found in the women's restroom. Oh and the Firemarshall tried to shut it down a couple of times for overcrowding.
So now we have a redo, almost certainly after MArch 4th. Keep in mind precinct delegates are not "pledged" and can change votes (Hillary has been actively courting Obama delegates, I can only assume Obama is responding in kind) throw in 400 (of aprox 5K I think) delegates that were Edwards and now up for grabs.
I believe Obama will win outright in OH and at minimum the delegate count in TX.
So how will Clark county react...and will it matter? Assuming Obama sweeps 3/4 I'd have to believe that many of Hillary's precinct dels will swap over to Obama perhaps sealing the deal before PA. Overall this snafu should have a minimal (if any) effect on the contest itself but it all depends on the timing of the redux.
If nothing else it sets a preceent for a "redo" of a nominating contest (MI/Florida anyone?) to adhere to DNC rules.
Your Thoughts? Agree/disagree/wtf am I talking about?
The real guilty party, though, is the state party itself. The Nevada Delegate Selection Plan seems utterly FUBAR. The precinct caucus elects unpledged delegates to the county convention, which elects unpledged delegates to the state convention. Also, at the precinct step, each viable campaign group gets to elect unlimited alternates to the county convention, giving them every incentive to pack the hall in a competitive year like this one. Add to that that alternates get picked for voting slots based on their time of registration for the convention and the checkin process becomes a nightmare.
As for precedents for Michigan and Florida, one already exists. Delaware, of all states, tried to muscle its way to the head of the queue in 1996, and the DNC forced them into a do-over. (They also helped pay for it, which helped get the state people in line.) There seems to be some sentiment for this in Michigan, which uses firehouse primaries as its default caucus method, but the Florida state party seems adamant about being allowed to get away with their arrogant violation of the rules.