I know we are all focused on the Presidential race. However, we can all agree that strong performance in the House races will be key to electing a Democratic President a 2nd Democratic Senator in Virginia and maintaining a strong Democratic majority going forward in Virginia and throughout the country. The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it. However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006. Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats. Over 25 GOP seats are now open seats, and another GOP rep seems to retire every couple weeks. Far fewer Democratic seats are open.
Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 27 seats that may be vulnerable, with 16 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 49 seats that may be vulnerable, with 23 that are clearly vulnerable. Among the 23 that are clearly vulnerable are the Virginia's 11th District, with Tom Davis' retirement, and Virginia's 2nd District, with another strong challenger against Thelma Drake. Virginia's 10th District is slightly vulnerable at this point.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (10)
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Democrat Christine Jennings may have actually won in 2006, but Buchanan was the one who moved to Washington. Maybe this time, all votes WILL be counted in this coastal district in West Florida.
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district big time for the Democrats.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg will likely face a much stronger, and well-financed Democratic challenger in 2008.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic-leaning district. Saxton's retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) - Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) - With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 and her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race is a strong target for the Democrats. Sate Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri has emerged thus far as the leading Democrat.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) - Tom Davis' retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover we have all been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia's 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005, and Jim Webb won big here in 2006.
Vulnerable Republicans (13)
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He likely faces a strong primary challenge. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich may run for Senate, but if he instead runs for Congress, he may also bring the Democrats a victory.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat, Arizona's largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi's indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who'll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will help GOP the candidate a lot, however.
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California's Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring at the end of his term it is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in the rural southwest corner of New York State.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006, Larry Kissell, who plans to run again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio's southwestern corner, but he may face a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus, if he runs.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Now the Democrats have a new candidate who may be formidable in former diplomat, Glenn Nye.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (26)
Arizona 03 (Shadegg) - Shadegg retired, then unretired and decided to fight on. This race remains compelling, although this district north of Phoenix remains strongly conservative.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.
Colorado 06 (Open Seat) - Not only will there be no "President Tancredo" on the ballot, there is no longer a "Congressman Tancredo" on the ballot. The Democrats may have an opportunity in this conservative-leaning district between Denver and Colorado Springs.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, he may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida's eastern coast.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could easily slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) - Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, the Democrats still have a chance in the suburbs west of Chicago.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in suburban Chicago, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Open Seat) - Hastert's retirement opens up this seat in northern Illinois for which the former Speaker of the House faced a spirited challenge in 2006.
Indiana 03 (Souder) - Souder faced a strong challenge out of nowhere in 2006.
Kentucky 02 (Open Seat) - In 2006, this was expected to be a close race, but Congressman Ron Lewis was able to win by ten. He decided to retire before the filing deadline leaving this seat open, and a potential pick up for Democrats, who except to bring a strong challenger for this seat.
Kentucky 04 (Davis) - Davis' strong defense of his seat in 2006 makes him less vulnerable in 2008
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Knollenberg's 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) - Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor, this district may have some potential with a strong Democratic State Rep already in the race.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - The Democrats didn't mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
New York 26 (Reynolds) - While the Foley issue lingered in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign, it is hard to believe that was the only reason this race was so close.
Ohio 07 (Open Seat) - Despite an easy GOP victory in 2006, the retirement of Dave Hobson leaves this seat open to potential Democratic takeover in this south central Ohio district.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) - LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio's northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2.
Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) - Dent faced a decent challenge in 2006 from out of nowhere, and if the Democrats make an effort this time, they may have a chance.
Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy) - Murphy has some ethical challenges, but pulled off a 16 point victory in 2006 in this swing district.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.
Washington 05 (McMorris) - McMorris fought off a potentially tough challenge from an under-funded Democratic challenger in 2006. However, if the Democrats make a serious run this time, she could be in trouble.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat only due to the Democratic wave.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was this victory a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship?
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) - With Bob Ney long gone, and with the GOP having time to find a decent candidate, Space's good fortune is gone in this conservative-leaning district east of Columbus.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) - Darlene Hooley's retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once. Democrats will need a strong candidate to keep this seat.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania's northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay's old seat south of Houston. Now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Vulnerable Democrats (7)
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil.
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - This may be a rematch with Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is easy.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election to a second term in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. Gillibrand looks to be in good shape for now, but may still face some decent opposition in 2008.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (11)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 against Mitchell, in what remains a swing district in the Phoenix suburbs.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - While Giffords had a strong victory in 2006, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable in this border district in Southeast Arizona.
Connecticut 02 (Courtney) - Courtney won by the slimmest of margins in 06, but given the voters in the district, he probably won't have as much trouble this time
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) - While his 8-point victory was impressive, it isn't enough to keep the GOP from mounting a serious challenge in 2008.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) - The death of Julia Carson leaves an intriguing opening for the Republicans in Indianapolis. This district could be heavily influenced by who are chosen as the Presidential candidates. It is hard to say how this will race play out until later in the campaign season.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) - Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) - I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) - Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) - While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Notes on the House races
By the way, the only reason I have time for this analysis is because I am a darn good researcher and because I am fascinated with the 2008 Congressional race. 2008 will show that Congressional elections are not only about which party has momentum, but how the races are shaping up. The fact that so many Republicans are retiring gives Democrats a unique opportunity to dominate the House by perhaps as many as 50 seats.
Remember in 2004 when we couldn't believe that people still liked Republicans after all that had happened? Well, people got fed up with them very quickly, and if Obama is surging to a big victory, he could take a lot new Democratic challengers with him to Washington.
In the House, you just need a majority and tight control of the caucus. Controlling the Rules Committee means everything. I mean what is the significance of a wider margin of seats there? Not that I wouldn't be happy.
All the inroads that Bush and Rove made into the Latino and African American communities, the Republican Party has pissed away with their short sightedness. It is cold comfort being "right" when it is depleting your electoral chances.
We'll see what happens. Though I agree that it an uphill battle to get to 60. But then who thought we would win the Senate in 2006?
The NRSC is way behind the DSCC, but that also represents a fundamental difference between the two parties. For the Democrats, the DNC raises little money, while the two wings--the DCCC and the DSCC--are the primary campaign strategy organizations. On the Republican side, the RNC is the massive cash cow, and the NRSC and NRCC fundraise on the side. Then the RNC gets involved in races in both Houses. Looking at just numbers for DSCC vs NRSC isn't getting the whole picture. And in the last year, the RNC has remained the huge frontrunner for fundraising among political organizations.
We'll see what Latinos do in 2006; Cuban-Americans love him, and coming from Arizona, he has built-in support. Hispanics may be moving away from the Republican Party, but I think McCain will attract a lot more than expected.
Also, he is currently tied up in the Public Financing System. And we don't have word yet on whether he will be released from that. If not, that puts him at a huge disadvantage to the massive amounts of money the Democratic presidential candidates have.
In enthusiasm, depression does keep folks home. And its not the Club for Growth folks I'm talking about. I think it is more the evangelical Christians that may turn away from politics again. And lack of enthusiastic support again puts Republicans at a disadvantage, when there is such massive enthusiasm on the Democratic side.
To your fundraising point, I encourage you to look at cash on hand in the most current FEC reports for the DSCC, the DCCC, and the DNC and compare that to the NRCC, NRSC, and RNC. Even with a funding advantage at the RNC level that is not overcoming the disadvantage of both the NRCC and NRSC. Talk up the RNC as much as you like, but Republicans are still at a cash disadvantage to Democrats. And they have a lot more seats to defend with all those retirements. I know they can get a lot of money from billionaire casino owners, but they better get to work on that if they want to bridge the gap before September.
As far as Latinos go, they are a diverse group. And surprise, surprise on Cuban-Americans, they are a traditional Republican constituency. But on the whole, I don't see any built-in advantage that McCain has. Being from a border state doesn't automatically give you inroads into that community. McCain has disavowed the immigration legislation of last year. Now it is all about tough border enforcement. And really what has he done to ingratiate himself to that constituency?
For fundraising, I never said that Republicans had more money than Democrats this cycle. My point was that just comparing the NRSC to the DSCC totals is misleading, because the NRSC typically relies on the RNC for money in an election cycle, while the DSCC does not.
I never said that McCain would automatically attract Latinos because he's from a border state, but he definitely attracts them more than a typical Republican would. He hasn't "disavowed" his legislation; he still believes in comprehensive reform, in allowing a path to citizenship for those in the country, and for reforming the system. He just wants more border security as well, which is exactly where a majority of American voters are at. Taking a lead on the issue--while ignoring the Tancredo-esque rantings of the far right--is exactly what he's done to ingratiate himself.
There's not much McCain has to do to show he is in line with the majority of voters? On what issues in particular? He is proposing a tax increase by taxing health care benefits provided by employers. I don't see how that appeals to his base or independents. He wants to cut the corporate tax rate to 25%. Again is this where the majority of Americans are? In times of economic trouble, do Americans really want government non-intervention? What position does he have that the majority of Americans have?
Not that I think any of that is important. It is not an appeal to logos that wins elections; it is an appeal to pathos. Personality wise, Romney would have been the better choice. Well, Huckabee would be the best choice.
On fundraising, in the case that I brought up, NRSC and DSCC, it was not misleading. So, I am at a loss as to why you brought up RNC v DNC at all. I thought you were trying to challenge my point rather than just school me on how Republican fundraising works.
Disavowed is poor word choice on my part. Instead, he has really changed his position. Compare his statement on the Senate Floor on the immigration bill:
However, I do not believe the Senate should or will pass an "enforcement only" bill. Our experiences with our current immigration system have proven that outdated or unrealistic laws will never be fully enforceable, regardless of every conceivable border security improvement we make. Despite an increase of border patrol agents from 3,600 to 10,000, despite quintupling the Border Patrol budget, and despite the employment of new technologies and tactics-all to enforce current immigration laws- illegal immigration drastically increased during the 1990s.While strengthening border security is an essential component of national security, it must also be accompanied by immigration reforms. We have seen time and again that as long as there are jobs available in this country for people who live in poverty and hopelessness in other countries, those people will risk their lives to cross our borders - no matter how formidable the barriers - and most will be successful.
To his speech to CPAC this year:
I accept that, and have pledged that it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first, and only after we achieved widespread consensus that our borders are secure, would we address other aspects of the problem in a way that defends the rule of law and does not encourage another wave of illegal immigration.
I mean if we cannot be successful "regardless of every conceivable border security improvement we make", then how will we ever achieve "widespread consensus that our borders are secure"? Which is it? Doesn't seem like you can have it both ways. And it seems very much like a flip-flop and pandering. What became of the Maverick? And this is the position that will win him Latino support?
I was thinking of Andrew Horne -- he seemed to be the candidate most favored by the Kentucky grass-roots activists.
Al's "qualities" were Craziness, Craziness, and more Craziness. I remember shaking my head damn near weekly because Al Weed had done something else that just made no freaking sense (just review NLS for crazy Al Weed stories, there are a lot of them).
Periello seems lightyears better than Weed, and is raising a fair bit of cash. I still think he's the heavy underdog, but to use Al Weed as a base for comparison is, in my mind, foolish.
Bad thing because Goode is dumb as a brick and one of those former Democrats who feel the need to go far right to prove their conversions.
They are not at all dumb.
The 2008 election is different. It is, or IMHO it ought to be, about whether you have an effective representative for your interests in Washington DC. For a variety of reason, Virgil Goode cannot provide that, but it is not for lack of intelligence on his part.
CA-04: With Doolittle's retirement, this should drop down to "Slightly Vulnerable" at best.
NY-29: I've heard absolutely no developments from this race. If Kuhl was able to win in 2006, I don't know why 2008 would be any worse for him.
VA-02: Despite RK's coverage, there's no proof that Nye will be a strong challenge. On top of which, Drake is now well-established in the district, and McCain will attract of a lot of military voters at the top of the ticket. I would drop this down to "Slightly Vulnerable" at best.
AZ-03: With Shadegg running again, this won't be much of a contest.
C0-04/C0-06: These are pie-in-the-sky reaches for Democrats, like CO-05 was last cycle. I wouldn't rate them on any scale of vulnerability.
FL-08/IN-03: Many races were "out of nowhere" last cycle due to the Democratic wave. That doesn't indicate a vulnerability among these incumbents, nor is there a strong challenger in place.
ID-01: Without an open seat, this seat seems unattainable. If you're at the point where you're hoping the incumbent makes a career-ending mistake, then this is pretty much off the radar.
KY-02: The filing deadline has passed. State Sen. David Boswell is a credible candidate, but I wouldn't expect the DCCC to sink many resources here.
KY-04: The filing deadline has passed and Davis didn't attract any serious challengers.
NY-26: Yes, the Foley issue was the only reason why Reynolds was ever in danger. Reynolds polling went from a 20-point lead to a 15-point deficit the day after the Foley news broke, before it stabilized again for him.
OH-07: The filing deadline passed and no strong Democrat is running in the race.
PA-15: The filing deadline passed and no strong Democrat is running.
VA-10: Frank Wolf beat Feder by 16 points in 2006.
GOP:
KY-03: This is a rematch. The filing deadline passed and Northup is in.
PA-04: Same as above. The filing deadline passed, and former Rep. Melissa Hart is in for a rematch.
NY-20: Gillibrand will have stiff competition from former NY Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell.
CT-02: I wouldn't expect this race to be competitive.
IN-07: If you're ranking this for the special election, I would put this much higher. Jon Elrod is a great candidate who won a deep blue district in '06. This is also less than six months from Greg Ballard's stunning upset in the Indy Mayor's race in 2007, where the district is centered.
I would also include NH-02 as "slightly vulnerable" for Dems.
Democrats
Indiana 08 (Ellsworth), Iowa 03 (Boswell), Pennsylvania 07 (Sestak), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy), Kansas 03 (Moore), Connecticut 05 (Murphy)
Republicans
California 26 (Drier), Michigan 08 (Rogers), Minnesota 02 (Kline), Missouri 06 (Graves), Pennsylvania 03 (English), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy)
Do you know a website where I see can filing deadline results?
Kline in Minnesota is one that is interesting if the Dems get a candidate out there.
Indiana's filing deadline was yesterday, so Monday's edition of the HRH will have a rundown of the candidates declared. Unfortunately, its subscription-only.
Of the races you listed, here are the filing deadlines:
IA: March 14th
KS: June 10th
CT: May 3rd
CA: March 7th
MI: May 13th
MN: July 15th
MO: March 25th
This SSP diary has a sortable listing of filing deadlines and primary dates:
http://swingstateproject.com/s...
In MN-02, Iraq War vet. Steve Sarvi is running against Kline (Kline himself is also a vet), and seems to be the establishment choice to run. Its a sleeper race, but it may turn interesting later on.
IN-08 has Former Rep. Kern's CoS Greg Goode in the race against Ellsworth. I doubt it will be competitive.
In IA-03, Boswell has a spirited primary challenge, but so far no Republican has stepped up to run.
PA-07: Sestak is running against Asst. U.S. Attorney W. Craig Williams (R). I would consider this to be a sleeper race.
PA-08: Murphy has two challengers: a Marine Corps Reservist Tom Manion, and some dude named Joseph Montone.
KS-03: State Sen. Nick Jordan is running against Moore, and appears to be a more formidible candidate than Moore has faced in previous cycles. Might be a race worth watching.
CT-05: State Sen. David Cappiello is doing pretty well in fundraising, but this remains a sleeper race at best.
CA-26: Dreier is running against a businessman Russ Warner. As opposed to previous cycles, Dreier was also able to get broad conservative support for his renomination.
MI-08: There have been literally no developments in the HRH in this race since November 2006. The only speculated candidate is '06 nominee Jim Marcinkowski, who lost by 12 points.
MO-06: Graves is running against former Kansas City Mayor Kathy Barnes. This is expected to be a tight race.
PA-03: English attracted four challengers. No idea who is what, but businesswoman Kathy Dahlkemper drastically outraised the Dem field.
PA-18: Murphy attracted four challengers: Vet Brian Well, businessman Steve O'Donnell, Beth Hafer (daughter of Barbara), and vet. R. Wayne Dudding. No idea who is what.
I don't know enough about Nye to determine whether or not he is a valid challenger. He's young enough that he certainly appears to have a future in the party. The question is whether or not his issues will be a match for the district. I have a horrible feeling that Mr. Nye is just another David Ashe, which is NOT a compliment.
Wolf beat Feder by 16 points in a VERY democratic year after almost equal spending, and better fundraising by Feder. Judy Feder, though a darling of the liberal blogosphere, is TOO FAR LEFT for the Tenth, which is a very MODERATE district. Judy's message hasn't changed. Her monetary advantage will be slightly bigger, but the environment will not be as pro-Democrat in 2008 as it was two years ago. And Mark Warner, for all his glory, doesn't have 16 point coattails. Neither would Obama, and Hillary certainly wouldn't. This race won't be competetive.
In the end, I think that as of now, there is only one competetive race in Virginia, with the possibility of the Second "maybe".
That's not to say he absolutely can't win, just that's he's a serious underdog at this point.