In today's Washington Post, Tim Craig has an article entitled, "Democratic Duel Complicates Life Further Down the Ticket". The central thesis is that if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee this fall, it could spell trouble for several, otherwise "favored" Republican congressional incumbents.
But if what has been described by some as "Obamania" persists into the fall, there are at least three GOP congressional incumbents who shouldn't take anything for granted.Reps. Thelma A. Drake, Virgil H. Goode Jr. and Frank R. Wolf are favored to win reelection, considering that Republicans drew their district boundary lines.
Each of those districts, however, could be susceptible to an uptick in Democratic turnout if Obama is at the top of the ticket.
On Virgil Goode, the article notes an upsurge in turnout for Barack Obama in Charlottesville, as well as in places like Danville, which is 45% African American. Overall, Goode's 5th district is 24% African American. With Barack Obama as the Demoratic nominee, African American turnout should be huge. In other words, watch out Virgil Goode and go Tom Perriello!
In the 2nd CD, Craig points to "traditionally conservative Virginia Beach, [where] 51,000 voted in the Democratic primary this year, compared with 30,000 in the GOP primary, suggesting more Democratic votes could be there than previously thought." The main challenge is for Democratic challenger Glenn Nye to raise a lot of money fast, and that won't be easy. Still, the guy Craig calls "Phil Kellman" (uh, that would be "Kellam") came close to defeating Drake in 2006 despite running a less-than-optimal race. We'll see.
Finally, on Frank Wolf, Craig writes that the 10th district "includes a lot of young professionals in western Fairfax and Loudoun counties, which could dilute the solid GOP advantage in the rest of the district." With Obama motivating these young professionals to vote Democratic, while simultaneously not motivating Republicans to vote against him, this could give a boost to Judy Feder as she tries for the second time to unseat Wolf.
Is this too optimistic? Not according to J. Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, who says that Obama at the top of the ticket should "be a reason for Republicans all the way down the ticket to be worried."
The bottom line is this: Barack Obama swept Virginia on February 12, turning out huge numbers of people, including ones who had never voted before. If this excitement continues through November, the effects of "Obamania" on Democrats running "downballot" could be highly positive, especially combined with the presence of Mark Warner -- Virginia's most popular politician -- on the ballot as well.
Step #1, of course, is for Barack Obama to clinch the Democratic nomination for President, which he hopefully will do in 1 1/2 weeks. Then, the pieces start falling into place quite nicely for people like Tom Perriello, Judy Feder, Glenn Nye, and possibly others as well. (Note: I'm assuming a Democratic pickup in the 11th CD regardless of who the Democratic presidential nominee is)
Check out "Frustrated By U.S. Policy, Foreign Service Veteran Challenges Virginia GOP Incumbent" in CQ Politics.
"[Glenn] Nye could give her [Thelma Drake] a competitive race this year", writes Greg Giroux.
Pointing out Judy's accomplished history in government and academia, as well as the fact that her health care proposals are completely in line with both Clinton's and Obama's. Neither of their plans are government single payer systems even, let alone anything close to "socialized" medicine. Socialized medicine would mean the government doesn't just run the payment and service price bargaining system, but regulates treatments and care cycles, and attempts to get into the government-spurned innovation side as well. Single payer does NOT mean government bureaucrats will hamper treatment by doctors or hospitals, make medical decisions, or stifle innovation and research. It merely means they'll barter for pricing on services, and get industry agreement on best practices that will result in the best patient treatment for the buck. Patients and doctors and their medical staffs will still have all the control over medical treatments.
Anyway, health care is just one issue where I am certain that the Wolfmen will be out trying to paint Judy as the scary feminist academic bureaucrat who is coming to make your life government-run. I say, bring it on, boys, I'm ready to battle ya!
There is nothing remotely scary about it.
Heck, there's nothing remotely scary about a government single-payer system to provide better cost controls and bulk bargaining for consumers, but I think that is several years away from political reality. However, I certainly think that a non-profit health care system is needed as well.
Anyway, Judy's biggest issues that she also should continue from 2006 that are a good fit for the district are fighting dependency on foreign oil, energy conservation, and fighting global warming, as well as insuring that the federal government plays a supportive and constructive role in bringing efficient and workable transportation and mass transit solutions to the 10th District.
I personally would love it if she used a mantra of "human rights start at home" to point out that for all of Frank Wolf's preaching worldwide about the atrocities of some government oppressing people's freedoms, he doesn't even support the freedoms and equalities for GLBT people in his own district.
Hypocrite!
Do you believe?