Want Dems to Take 60 Seats In the Senate? Obama Must Be the Nominee

For example:  

2. New Hampshire (John Sununu)
Challenger: Jeanne Shaheen

Primary winner: Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama split the delegates here 9-9)
Margin: Clinton +3%
2002 Margin: GOP +4%

Analysis: Clinton eked out a surprise upset win here (although they technically split the delegates) and it's possible that Clinton and Shaheen at the top of the ticket could help galvanize a big turnout among woman that could also help Carol Shea-Porter win reelection to her House seat. On the other hand, the New Hampshire GOP is demoralized and in retreat. Perhaps nothing could reenergize them more than the prospect of another Clinton presidency.

4. Minnesota (Norm Coleman)
Challenger: Al Franken

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +34%
2002 Margin: GOP +3

Analysis: Al Franken is now the heavy favorite to become the DFL nominee here. A recent poll shows Franken trailing Coleman by a single percentage point. Obviously, coattails could be critical in this race. Obama's 34% caucus margin over Clinton is as clear as day. An Obama ticket could be just the thing to put Franken over the top.

5. Colorado (OPEN SEAT- Wayne Allard)
Challenger: Mark Udall

Caucus winner: Barack Obama
Margin: Obama +35%
2002 Margin: GOP +5

Analysis: Udall is widely seen as a modest favorite in this race to replace the retiring Wayne Allard, but a recent Rasmussen poll had him trailing 43%-44% to former Rep. Bob Schaffer. Another recent poll showed John McCain clobbering Hillary Clinton in Colorado by a 14% margin while losing to Obama by a 7% margin. Obama's 35% advantage in the Colorado caucuses is quite convincing. Clinton could easily cost Udall the election, while Obama might provide enough of a boost to put him over the top.

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