(Image from Pollster.com.)
Texas has been called Sen. Clinton's firewall state, though the reality of that statement is quite questionable. It's one of those funny conventional wisdom things, where people say it as if it is assumed to be true, even as it is debunked by the self-same commentator. This is, of course, a classic straw man arguement. If someone can find a statement by the Clinton campaign that Texas is a "firewall" or a must win, I have not seen it. The closest is this statement from Mark Penn.
Although the remaining February map will favor Obama, the remaining three large primary states - Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania -- are states with a lot of delegates, strong support from elected officials there (governors of Ohio and PA), and who see Hillary as the candidate with the solutions to the problems they face. - Mark Penn, "A New Day"It takes a lot of interpretation to get from that to "Texas is Sen. Clinton's firewall." Nonetheless, the narrative is in play, so attention turns to Texas. And the news there is not good for Sen. Clinton.
All strategies based on superdelegates and winning majorities of delegates in remaining big states are predicated on, well, winning. And not just winning small, as the Democratic system of proportional delegate allocation means that Sen. Clinton needs big victories to catch up in the delegate counts. That needs to start with Texas.
While Sen. Clinton is maintaining her 50% majority in Texas, Sen. Obama's trendline is extremely dangerous to that bare majority. As a matter of fact, Sen. Obama's trendline in Texas threatens to cross Sen. Clinton's 50% and push her into second place as time passes, and Sen. Obama has nothing but time between now and March 4th.
Greater minds than mine will have to parse the details, but that line is a upthrusted dagger, pointed at the heart of Sen. Clinton's nomination.
(Crossposted from Leesburg Tomorrow.)