Obama Wins Wisconsin. Hawaii Open Thread.
By: Lowell
Published On: 2/19/2008 7:12:00 PM
What I'm hearing so far is:
*In Wisconsin, "State election officials expect turnout to be about 35% of the voting-age population, which would rank Wisconsin near the top of states that have voted."
*Early exit polls indicate that "far more voters were participating in the Democratic than the Republican contest" and that for "about one in seven Democratic voters, Tuesday was the first time they were voting in a primary."
*In Hawaii, I hear the weather is really rough -- 73 degrees, light winds, mostly cloudy. Could this reduce turnout or what? Ha. :)
Polls close in WI at 9 pm ET, in Hawaii at 12:30 am ET (unless I did the time zone math wrong). Please use this as an open thread for news about today's primaries. Thanks.
UPDATE: George Stephanopoulos just reported that voters who care about electability are going strongly for Obama in Wisconsin.
UPDATE #2: Preliminary ABC News exit poll findings are here. On the Democratic side, "nearly half the voters are liberals," "more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race," "someone who can 'bring about needed change' is tops by far for Democrats," "about four in 10 voters have college degrees."
UPDATE #3: Over at The Politico, Ben Smith writes, "Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Sen. Obama looks like he's headed for a huge win in today's Wisconsin primary." We'll see.
UPDATE #4: CBS News exit poll results have Obama winning 61%-35% among men, 51%-49% among women. Given that men made up 43% of the voters, that equates to about 55%-45% for Obama overall if the exit polls are accurate.
UPDATE 8:51 PM: I'm hearing exit polls ranging from a 10-point Obama victory to an 18-point Obama blowout. I'll believe it when I see it.
UPDATE 9:00 PM: NBC and CNN call it for McCain, too early to call for Democrats. ABC says Obama is "leading in the Democratic primary." CNN exit polls here -- Obama wins 61% of men and 51% of women.
UPDATE 9:19 PM: MSNBC calls it for Obama!
UPDATE 9:44 PM: With 12% reporting, Obama's leading by 11 points, 55%-44%.
UPDATE 10:03 PM: With 25% reporting, Obama's leading by 13 points, 56%-43%.
UPDATE 10:31 PM: With 44% reporting, Obama's leading by 12 points, 55%-43%.
UPDATE 6:00 AM: With 99% reporting, it's Obama by 17 points over Clinton, 58%-41%. A blowout!
Comments
Weather Is Going To Be A Bigger Factor in Hawai'i Than Wisconsin (HisRoc - 2/19/2008 7:22:52 PM)
Here's a link to Triumph the Wonder Dog giving the forecast for Hawai'i:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
;-)
WI Exit Poll (Flipper - 2/19/2008 7:32:30 PM)
1 in 7 voters first time voters - 14.2%. That appears to be low if in fact it is correct. What time of day was exit poll as of.
Virginia first time voters made up 35% of electorte on primary.
As goes Wisconsin, so goes Ohio (The Grey Havens - 2/19/2008 7:57:25 PM)
I predict that the results coming out of Ohio on March 3 will be within 3 points of tonight's results coming out of Wisconsin.
I've just got a feeling.
Anyhoo, looks like the dirty tricks from the Clinton campaign haven't hurt Obama's standings so far. He's still trading at post-iowa/pre-new hampshire levels on inTrade.com.
Oh! And it turns out that Deval Patrick ASKED Obama to use his words.
When a man is just a man, it's really really tough to portray him as a golden idol with feet of clay.
Deval Patrick: "I Asked Obama to Use My Words"
Speaking of Ohio (DanG - 2/19/2008 8:02:57 PM)
SuSA claims the Obama is closing the gap:
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...
Clinton by 9. Into the single digits. Though I think an Obama win in Ohio is unlikely, with some campaigning maybe he can virtually split the delegates, and force Clinton to win PA by 70 points to have any hope.
Rock 'n Roll! (The Grey Havens - 2/19/2008 8:41:29 PM)
It's all happening!
March 4 (elevandoski - 2/19/2008 8:15:05 PM)
Are you "plagiarizing" Gov. Kaine?? (proudvadem - 2/19/2008 8:35:36 PM)
Hey Grey Havens,
You didnt use quotes when you said "I've got a feeling" above.
Aren't you "plagiarizing" Tim Kaine's JJ speech? Hehe....
;-)
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett
Woops... (The Grey Havens - 2/19/2008 8:37:58 PM)
Looks like I'm not qualified to comment on blogs.
I guess I'll just fold up shop and head home =)
Exit polls numbers from Time Online (DanG - 2/19/2008 8:15:19 PM)
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%
Again, these are just exit polls, not the final results. But if these trends hold, Obama should probably win pretty solidly. Not Virginia numbers, but solidly. The number that concerns me is the Senior Citizens, especially because there were apparently a lot of them today.
I'm a bit concerned with the senior vote as well (JennyE - 2/19/2008 8:37:43 PM)
The high turnout among seniors coupled with the margins Hillary is drawing worries me. I guess we have to wait for the final numbers.
If Obama truly won the female vote, it's over (DanG - 2/19/2008 8:53:24 PM)
White men have been trending heavily Obama. And when it comes to gender, their are only two options. So if he truly won the female vote, he can only go higher (unless there is a HUGE break in the trends coming up soon).
The exit polls tend to inflate Obama's real numbers (JennyE - 2/19/2008 8:56:13 PM)
I'd wait for confirmation. btw, did Hillary carry the women vote in Virginia?
nope, not even close (Chris Guy - 2/19/2008 11:13:32 PM)
Obama by 16%. Here's a
link
Do you have a link? (SWVA.Observer - 2/19/2008 8:42:36 PM)
Those numbers are interesting, and I'd love to see the poll they came from.
Link (DanG - 2/19/2008 8:48:56 PM)
http://thepage.time.com/fox-pr...
Hillary also does incredibly well in the "experience" category. Unfortunately for her, apparently, that just hasn't been that big of an issue for her, and other exit polls suggest that both "change" and "electability" were much more important.
I think I saw where there was good turnout from independents (aznew - 2/19/2008 8:55:44 PM)
on the Democratic side. If so, bad news for Clinton.
Also, I saw Howard Wolfson on MSNBC talking about how much the Clinton campaign was looking forward to Texas and Ohio. That's a bad sign.
That all said, I don't like predicting, because, really, what's the difference -- in an hour it won't matter --and the exit polls and actual results have been at odds before.
I think it was about a third (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:00:17 PM)
Independents and Republicans made up about a third of Democratic voters in Wisconsin. Or at least that's what I've heard.
If Obama won the women's vote in WI (Lowell - 2/19/2008 8:56:41 PM)
He's gonna carry the state by a very comfortable margin.
I can't believe I missed that (aznew - 2/19/2008 9:02:58 PM)
but yeah, hard to argue with that.
What do you think is the margin that causes, for lack of a better expression, the powers that be (as opposed to the "Obama partisans," to think that it is all over for Clinton?
None (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:07:27 PM)
I'm assuming that by "powers that be", you mean Dean, Gore, and some of the other big wigs not yet taking a side.
As for a margin to assume it's all over, there is none. Regardless of what happens tonight, the race goes on. That's why Hillary already made it quite clear that Texas and Ohio are her firewalls. Now, should she lose one or the other, THEN somebody might start making phone calls. Until March 4th, however, don't expect any talk of her dropping out.
Yeah, that's what i meant - and thanks (aznew - 2/19/2008 9:09:46 PM)
100 points? (Lowell - 2/19/2008 9:07:56 PM)
Seriously, though, I doubt there's a margin tonight that would end it for Clinton. However, if she loses big in Wisconsin -- a state tailor made for her in terms of its demographics, and also a state where she put considerable resources -- it's gotta hurt.
The problem is that it is now expected (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:16:00 PM)
Everybody expects Obama to win. Unless he pulls off a double-digit win with impressive exit polls, there's not much that can come out of this for the campaign. A five point win can be spun by Clinton. 10 points? Much harder.
Men were 43% of the vote? (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:25:09 PM)
Where have all the dudes gone? Man, and we wonder why they call us the Mommy Party?
This gender gap has been pretty standard (Lowell - 2/19/2008 9:26:57 PM)
throughout the Democratic primaries and caucuses this year. It's the exact opposite on the Republican side.
Republicans are from Mars, Democrats are from Venus?
Then where my damned Martians at? (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:30:07 PM)
Seriously, I understood it at the beginning of the race. But the GOP race is freaking over. Why is anybody even bothering to vote in that thing?
I'd ask them, but... (Lowell - 2/19/2008 9:30:46 PM)
...I don't speak Martian. :)
Everyone should read that ... (TMSKI - 2/19/2008 9:34:45 PM)
That was funny as hell .... classic.
Thank you for that, Lowell (FxbAmy - 2/19/2008 10:08:19 PM)
In these stress filled last moments, I needed that laugh. Absolutely fantastic!
Dan G ... the dudes (TMSKI - 2/19/2008 9:29:53 PM)
where shoveling snow ...
Take a 15 minute break to go vote (DanG - 2/19/2008 9:31:40 PM)
Seriously, son, it's just gonna snow again tomorrow. You can take a break to go determine the future of the country.
Yeah really ... (TMSKI - 2/19/2008 9:35:50 PM)
I was just making excuses for them Cheeseheads ...
Exit Polls updated.. (NGB - 2/19/2008 10:15:49 PM)
Obama wins men with 66% and loses women with 48%
Damn (DanG - 2/19/2008 10:18:26 PM)
Was hoping we could pull of the win there. Still, a virtual tie is just as good in this case, and if Obama can continue to keep it that close amongst women and win so big amongst Men, he'll keep on rolling.
That would equate to 56% (Lowell - 2/19/2008 10:19:13 PM)
for Obama, 44% for Clinton. A 12-point victory? I'll take it! :)
NBC News calls it for Obama! (elevandoski - 2/19/2008 10:20:20 PM)
NBC news just called it... (proudvadem - 2/19/2008 10:20:33 PM)
In WI for Obama...
9 in a row!!!!!
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett.
I thought (Terry85 - 2/19/2008 10:21:22 PM)
this was the 10th? Or is that assuming he wins Hawaii?
It will be 10 in a row (Lowell - 2/19/2008 10:23:07 PM)
when Obama wins Hawaii.
Was just about to say.. (Terry85 - 2/19/2008 10:24:12 PM)
Olbermann just answered it for me, lol.
Hawaii would be the big 10 (DanG - 2/19/2008 10:23:54 PM)
Results should be in around 12:30-1:00 AM.
USVI (Ingrid - 2/19/2008 10:27:06 PM)
Sen. Obama won the US Virgin Islands as well. This win hardly ever gets mentioned. Small number of delegates, but a win all the same.
Hey, how many islands ARE there? (Lowell - 2/19/2008 10:29:07 PM)
Maybe we can count that win as more than one? LOL
MSNBC just called it (FishHead Dem - 2/19/2008 10:20:35 PM)
for Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Uninstructed" (proudvadem - 2/19/2008 10:32:46 PM)
What is that? On MSNBC it shows Obama, Clinton, & Uninstucted.
Is that like uncommited?
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett
C'mon Wisconsin! (True Blue - 2/19/2008 10:50:45 PM)
Let's see ikf the later precincts can push Obama to 57-58%.
Big win, more delegates, no whammies!
He's at 56% right now (Lowell - 2/19/2008 10:56:20 PM)
with 18% reporting.
Watch Dane County (Lowell - 2/19/2008 11:00:11 PM)
That's where Madison is located. Right now, it's 20,637-11,743 Obama with 22% reporting. Extrapolate that out and you get another 40,000 votes or so for Obama.
I think Public Policy Polling will be closer (DanG - 2/19/2008 11:50:27 PM)
In the end, PPP said 13%. I think they'll be right on the money.
Another Prediction (The Grey Havens - 2/19/2008 11:41:19 PM)
I predict that Edwards will endorse Obama at least a week before Ohio and Texas.
I hope so... (proudvadem - 2/19/2008 11:43:23 PM)
I really do. That could be HUGE in OH.
Now thanks to the Ben & Jerry endorsement yesterday, I feel good about VT :-)
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett
I was thinking the same thing about Edwards (vadem2008 - 2/19/2008 11:47:55 PM)
That would be the best thing Edwards could do for Obama.
It was remarked by the talking heads (elevandoski - 2/20/2008 12:14:45 AM)
that Obama is winning the white male voter that would have otherwise gone to Edwards. Just thought I'd throw that out.
Delegates (DanG - 2/20/2008 12:20:48 AM)
THAT's what matters. Edwards has 20 or so delegates, all very loyal. It's like a primary in itself.
Obama doing better than McCain? (Keith in Arlington - 2/19/2008 11:56:37 PM)
Has anyone else noticed that -- with 60% of the vote in -- Obama is getting a larger share of the vote in a still-active Democratic competition with Clinton than McCain is getting in a Republican race that's essentially over and done with? What does that say?
Hawaii and Wisconsin (DanG - 2/19/2008 11:56:41 PM)
Hawaii is likely to go to Obama.
How many delegates will Obama pick up tonight? If we're lucky, maybe we'll get +20 delegates out of the night. That would be a pretty big deal, push Obama up into some good numbers before Ohio and Texas (I still expect to lose both).
Politico has a 16+% spread with 80% of precincts reporting (jlmccreery - 2/20/2008 12:38:53 AM)
Not a victory, a romp.
CNN has 17% lead (DanG - 2/20/2008 1:40:07 AM)
With 93% in.
The big question: how many delegates are we gonna get out of this?
HI: Obama 77%, Clinton 23%.... (Flipper - 2/20/2008 5:34:09 AM)
with 8% of precincts reporting. Looks like a blowout.
WI: A Cool Map (Flipper - 2/20/2008 6:23:33 AM)
The link has a map of Wisconsin showing counties won by Obama and Clinton in Wisconsin. It truly puts Obama's victory here into perspective. Clinton won only 9 counties statewide, mostly in the far corners of the state. Of the 9 counties won by Clinton, she won 3 of them by 1%.
http://politics.nytimes.com/el...