UPDATE: 82 electoral votes -- Obama wins, Clinton loses

By: Scripple
Published On: 2/19/2008 12:41:45 PM

Courtesy of the latest polls from TalkingPointsMemo:

Iowa (7 electoral votes):
McCain +11 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain

Minnesota (10 electoral votes):
McCain +5 over Clinton
Obama +15 over McCain

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):
McCain +7 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain

Oregon (7 electoral votes):
McCain +3 over Clinton
Obama +9 over McCain

Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes):
McCain +2 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCain

Nevada (5 electoral votes):
McCain +9 over Clinton
Obama +12 over McCain

Colorado (9 electoral votes):
McCain +14 over Clinton
Obama +7 over McCain


These aren't insignificant margins, either -- most of these are leads outside the margin of error.

That's 69 electoral votes that we will most probably win with Obama as the nominee, and probably lose with Clinton as the nominee.

More importantly for us, if Obama has these big leads in these states, he can focus attention on redder states... like, I don't know... Virginia?

However, if Clinton has to fight in these states, what do you think the chances are of her competing in Virginia?  Not very likely, I'd say.

UPDATE: New Survey USA Poll has McCain +3 over Clinton here in Virginia, with Obama +6 over McCain! I've updated the title to reflect that.

In total that's a shift of 164 electoral votes, depending on who our nominee is.


Comments



I think after seeing the results of the primary (DanG - 2/19/2008 12:51:17 PM)
Obama is far more likely to campaign here.  


Also, I might point out (DanG - 2/19/2008 2:00:08 PM)
That options are good.

For example, Hillary would have to win the Kerry States plus Ohio or Florida.  (I think that's her plan)

While it appears Obama won't do well in Florida, he's still very close in Ohio, and his leads in states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia provide some alternatives.  Rather than placing all your bets on two states, we can move all over the country and try to win everywhere!  For example, Virginia and Colorado would provide more votes than Ohio.  Or Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa.  Or maybe Obama can win New Mexico or Missourri, add those to the list.



check this out (Scripple - 2/19/2008 2:22:12 PM)
from DailyKos -- a diary from a Hillary supporter who switched to Obama because he's more electable.

Some key conclusions:

McCain vs. Obama -- Obama starts with 273 electoral votes, McCain has 207, 58 are up for grabs.  Note that this writer's map includes Virginia as going for McCain -- based on the latest polls, if we switch that to Obama, that makes it Obama 286, McCain 194, with 58 up for grabs.

McCain vs. Clinton -- McCain starts with 245 electoral votes, Clinton has 199, with 94 up for grabs.

That's not to say that Hillary CAN'T win -- but why on earth would we nominate a candidate that puts the Republicans 90 percent of the way toward winning in 2008?



Good point DanG (proudvadem - 2/20/2008 11:13:00 AM)
Virginia gave him much love and showed that it is turning blue!

Its a few weeks later and I am still thrilled about the huge rally in Thelma Drake's backyard!
Speaking of Drake, I hope to God that whoever our nominee is has some serious coat tails. I'd like to see that monster gone. She's horrible, her office is horrible, and she needs to go.
And while I'm ranting, I'm sorry but I just don't like the fact that my Congresswoman ONLY has a GED. Granted college doesn't "make" a person smart but I prefer a representative with some education.

"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett



Bush went to Yale (DanG - 2/20/2008 1:58:07 PM)
So don't assume college equals intelligence.  But for this newcomer in the second to win, both Warner and Obama would need to provide major coattails.  Warner certainly will, don't know if Obama can down there in hardcore military land.


Excellent point! (proudvadem - 2/20/2008 2:48:58 PM)
You are so correct. College does not equal intelligence. Let me restate- I prefer someone with stronger credentials not necessarily education, and Drake has neither. I remember when Gilmore put her on the Board of Visitors for ODU (I'm an alum and also work ther), what a joke!

Shrub was a C student that became an "F" President.

The 2nd does needs long coattails.

-Maria

"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett



Thelma is toast (David Campbell - 2/20/2008 3:22:44 PM)
with a Democratic ticket of Barack Obama for President, Mark Warner for Senate, and Glenn Nye for Congress.


I hope so David (proudvadem - 2/20/2008 5:18:20 PM)
Her constituency service is horrible and she's a
Bush lapdog.
I'm planning on volunteering as much as I can to help Nye. He sounds like a good candidate.

-Maria

"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett



Florida (brimur - 2/19/2008 2:06:31 PM)
I think it will be hard for anyone to beat McCain in Florida. And though with any other candidate we'd have had a shot to pick up the west due to the recent Republican anti-immigrant rampage, McCain nullifies that advantage. So Hillary seems to be hanging all of her general election hopes on Ohio.