Iowa (7 electoral votes):
McCain +11 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCainMinnesota (10 electoral votes):
McCain +5 over Clinton
Obama +15 over McCainWisconsin (10 electoral votes):
McCain +7 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCainOregon (7 electoral votes):
McCain +3 over Clinton
Obama +9 over McCainPennsylvania (21 electoral votes):
McCain +2 over Clinton
Obama +10 over McCainNevada (5 electoral votes):
McCain +9 over Clinton
Obama +12 over McCainColorado (9 electoral votes):
McCain +14 over Clinton
Obama +7 over McCain
That's 69 electoral votes that we will most probably win with Obama as the nominee, and probably lose with Clinton as the nominee.
More importantly for us, if Obama has these big leads in these states, he can focus attention on redder states... like, I don't know... Virginia?
However, if Clinton has to fight in these states, what do you think the chances are of her competing in Virginia? Not very likely, I'd say.
UPDATE: New Survey USA Poll has McCain +3 over Clinton here in Virginia, with Obama +6 over McCain! I've updated the title to reflect that.
In total that's a shift of 164 electoral votes, depending on who our nominee is.
For example, Hillary would have to win the Kerry States plus Ohio or Florida. (I think that's her plan)
While it appears Obama won't do well in Florida, he's still very close in Ohio, and his leads in states like Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia provide some alternatives. Rather than placing all your bets on two states, we can move all over the country and try to win everywhere! For example, Virginia and Colorado would provide more votes than Ohio. Or Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. Or maybe Obama can win New Mexico or Missourri, add those to the list.
Some key conclusions:
McCain vs. Obama -- Obama starts with 273 electoral votes, McCain has 207, 58 are up for grabs. Note that this writer's map includes Virginia as going for McCain -- based on the latest polls, if we switch that to Obama, that makes it Obama 286, McCain 194, with 58 up for grabs.
McCain vs. Clinton -- McCain starts with 245 electoral votes, Clinton has 199, with 94 up for grabs.
That's not to say that Hillary CAN'T win -- but why on earth would we nominate a candidate that puts the Republicans 90 percent of the way toward winning in 2008?
Its a few weeks later and I am still thrilled about the huge rally in Thelma Drake's backyard!
Speaking of Drake, I hope to God that whoever our nominee is has some serious coat tails. I'd like to see that monster gone. She's horrible, her office is horrible, and she needs to go.
And while I'm ranting, I'm sorry but I just don't like the fact that my Congresswoman ONLY has a GED. Granted college doesn't "make" a person smart but I prefer a representative with some education.
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett
Shrub was a C student that became an "F" President.
The 2nd does needs long coattails.
-Maria
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett
-Maria
"We are the people our parents warned us about"-Jimmy Buffett