their track record is pretty awful.

See here.

Still, more than anything, it means there is potential in Texas.  New polls on RCP show Obama down 7 and 8.  Compare this to Ohio, and you see that Texas, rather than Ohio, may be where Obama needs to focus his efforts.

ARG has not done very well this year and there are several other polls which still show Obama trailing in Texas. While I would love to win Texas we must continue to work to make that happen. In Virginia, we can make phone calls using the campaigns tool and we can travel to Ohio to volunteer.

in Maryland.

The really interesting thing is that she's only 2 points ahead among Hispanics. That was the one major demographic that her campaign appeared to have much hope of leading among.

If this poll is substantiated by others, it's looking like checkmate. She's got nowhere left to run. Which probably means she'll have to stand and fight and go hard negative. Whatever. We'll still win.        

(1) That all polls have Obama doing MUCH better than Clinton among independents;

(2) That Texas and Ohio are open primaries;

(3) That with the endorsement of McCain by former President Bush today, the Republican nomination is all but wrapped up -- freeing these independents to vote for Obama.

Bodes well for him, I'd say...

and while the poll doesn't differentiate those likely voters who will vote Democratic, you have to question this:

Clinton is ahead with Dems by 47-42 but Obama leads among independents and republicans 71% to 24%

But I believe since the Repub nomination is all but summed up, alot of normally Repub voters will want to make themselves feel better, vote for Obama because they just hate Clinton, and not bother voting in the Repub primary, giving Obama the state.  I think this is what has been happening in many red states.  

Republicans need to show up to the Republican Primary in Texas.  Huckabee is still in the race.  And if they all assume that they don't need to show up for McCain and can cast their vote in the Democratic Primary instead, then Huckabee could win Texas.

On top of that how do you know which way Republicans who cross over to vote in the Democratic Primary will vote, they could just as easily cast their vote for Clinton in hopes of making it easier for McCain in the general.

McCain or Huckabee?  Besides they are all convinced that McCain will be it, while some remain to protest the seemingly known fact and vote for Huckabee nonetheless.  And, I'm not so sure all Repubs are convinced Obama is a stronger candidate.  They say he would be harder to win against, but do you take them at their word?  

McCain and Huckabee both came into the primaries seeking to secure the moderate Republican vote, and in doing so, the right-wing of the party would go along with them.  Everyone realises that in this election cycle, the American voter has moved stridently towards the left and therefore, a GOP would have be there in the center if their nominee were to have a chance come November.  All this hub-bub about cons not voting for their Repub nominee, ala Ann Coulter and Sean Hannity, not only doesn't make a whip of sense, but it isn't the slightest bit convincing to other conservatives from what I can tell.  Also, there was a survey recently release (can't recall where I saw it) that an vast overwhelming majority of likely Repub voters, like the high 80's, were comfortable/accepting of McCain as their nominee.  

If Obama who is (or will become) more identified as being left of Clinton, is nominated, then more of the middle would be available to whoever the Republicans nominated.  Its not that I'm suggesting the middle will vote Repub, I'm just saying the Repub will have more of a chance with more of the middle up for grabs.  On the otherhand, if it were Clinton, like McCain, the Dems would also have a centrist type nomimee, able to assume the base on one hand, yet still be in position to attract the middle on the other.  

Now this belief, from my perceptive, remains valid unless Obama begins to sound less liberal/progressive and more centrist, once he defeats Clinton.  However, if he is unable to knock Clinton out sooner, he'll have continued being the more liberal/progressive candidate of the two, which he may become his enamored position after he wins the nomination.  The sooner he finishes off Clinton, the more he can work on his rhetoric to attact a wider audience which exists in the middle.  For now, however, he's just taking over the leftmost side of the party, or aims to do so come the convention.  

The same holds true for McCain.  He needs Huckabee to step aside so the GOP can consolidate, and he (McCain) can develop what is needed to compete as a centrist come November.  The longer Huckabee insists on staying around, the longer McCain has to pretend he's a right-wing conservative - not all that good sounding if you are truly an indy or a moderate or a swing voter.  

So I don't know what to make of their polling.

Still, the larger point is that this poll spells trouble for Clinton. As has been widely noted, it will not be enough merely for Clinton to win Texas and Ohio. she needs to convincingly win them, by some 20 points.

the fact that any poll could find results like this should be troubling to her campaign, because it would have to be off by some 26 points. I don't care how poor their record, that is a difficult level of incompetence to achieve.

But he's likely down by less than 10.  That's a very good sign.  If Obama only loses by 7 in Texas, and 10 in Ohio, it makes it impossible for Hillary to catch up.  She needs to win much bigger than that.  

That Clinton needs to win Texas by a lot. This poll, even if it is wrong, is an indication that her lead, wherever it is, is not big enough.

Remember, ARG is a REPUBLICAN polling firm.

For Republicans, no level of incompetence is too difficult to achieve!

...the same poll found that "John McCain is at 41% among self-described Republicans and Mike Huckabee is at 40%."  Another "Huckaboom" in the works?

A new Rasmussen poll released late this morning finds Obama leading Clinton nationally 49% to 37%.

One of the most interesting details in the polls is that Obama leads among female voters by 5 points, with Clinton's lead among white women down to 3 points.

http://www.marketwatch.com/new...

Pollsters are polling people who have already voted in Democratic primaries.  But Texas is an open primary: anyone can show up.

The secret of Obama's success is the Unlikely Democratic Voter.

Young people, independents, Obama-icans.  Ron Paul's supporters don't have anything to do on March 4th.

Have we gotten so spoiled that five points is too close for comfort?  This is a white, blue-collar state.  Hillary should have it in the bag.  The fact that Obama is winning there at all is nothing short of astounding.

I'm just saying that it's close so we need to work hard in WI (and everywhere).

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes...

BIG news for Obama.

Check out another poll from Texas that I added above.