The polls in Ohio are looking pretty bad for Obama. That's just the kind of the blowout that Hillary will need to stay in the race.
Also, the polls in Wisconsin are showing a VERY close race.
Don't get cockey, people! There is still a long way to go.
I think in TX there is still a lot of Molly Ivin-esque people in the Austin area. I just spoke to a former professor of mine from there and he said he's heard of a LOT of grassroots for Obama.
Ohio will be interesting. In PA, I'm wondering if Rendell's comment will come to bite him.
I feel good about RI, and WI. If the youth turnout is as strong as it has been in WI, this will bode well for Obama.
"Politics is not about power. Politics is not about money. Politics is not about winning for the sake of winning. Politics is about the improvement of people's lives. It's about advancing the cause of peace and justice in our country and the world. Politics is about doing well for the people."- the late Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MI)
What are thoughts of how an Edwards endorsement could affect Ohio either way?
Ohio is a strong union state. Edwards had many union endorsements. Would a pre Ohio endorsement make an impact?
Or, do I have too much free time @ work :-)
"Politics is not about power. Politics is not about money. Politics is not about winning for the sake of winning. Politics is about the improvement of people's lives. It's about advancing the cause of peace and justice in our country and the world. Politics is about doing well for the people."- the late Senator Paul Wellstone (D-MI)
Given the institutional support Clinton has in Ohio, Governor Strickland, former U.S. Senator Juhn Glenn, etc., she should do well there. The key for Obama is to make gains with blue collar voters in Ohio who make under $50,000.00 a year, particulalry white males within this group. Obama won these groups in Virginia, which accounted for his landslide win.
Ohio also has quite a few universities throughout the state, with the largest being Ohio State University. But it also has a large number of smaller universities like the University of Miami-Ohio, Oberlin, Kent State, etc., which bodes well for Obama.
The black population in Ohio is much smaller than in many other large states like PA, MI and IL, only 11%, and it's concentrated in 8 congressional districts throughout the state:
District 1 - Cincinatti area - 27.5%
Includes city of Cincinatti (42.9% black), suburbs in Butler and Hamilton counties are quite conservative and middle class but they also contain some affluent, well educated white voters that Obama has done well with across the country.
District 3 - Dayton area - 17%
Includes city of Dayton (43.1% black) and suburbs and exurbs - Warren, Clinton and Highland counties.
District 9 - Toledo area - 13.7%
This CD runs across the western part of Lake Erie and includes Lucas, Ottawa, Erie and Lorrain Counties. TONS of blue collar voters here, some ethnic voters in Toledo (71% black) and home to Oberlin University as well.
District 10 - Western Cuyahoga County - 13.7%
Western Cuyahoga County is the CD represented by Dennis Kucinich and includes the city of Parma. Household income is just a hair over the $21,000.00 median income in Ohio. This district will be an indicator of how well Obama is running statewide with voters who earn less than $50,000.00. Intresting to see if Kucinich actively campaigns for Obama here.
Ditrict 11 - Cleveland area - 55.9%
This CD takes in the city of Cleveland (51% black) and its eastern suburbs. Lots of black voters, Jewish voters in places like Shaker Heights; Obama should run well in the eastern suburbs.
District 12 - Columbus area - 21.9%
Columbus (24.5% black) is the state capital and home of Ohio State University. Large suburbs in Franklin, Delaware and Licking counties. Bush barley beat John Kerry here, 51-49%. Obama should kick butt here.
District 13 - Akron area - 12.3%
This CD includes part of the city of Akron (28.5% black)parts of Lorain, Medina, Summit and Cuyahoga counties and is the CD represented by Sherrod Brown prior to his election to the U.S. Senate in 2006. Lots of blue collar workers in this CD. This CD will give us a good look at how well Obama does with blue collar workers generally across the state of Ohio.
District 17 - Youngstown area - 11.8%
This CD is located in northeastern OH and runs from the border of PA through the cities of Youngstown (43.8% black), Kent and part of Akron.
Black voter make up 20% of the population in VA but on primary day they made up 29% of the voters casting ballots. If Obama can get a simialr bump up in black turnout (9%) so that black voters make up 20% of voters casting ballots on primary day, that would be a good sign.
Ohio has a small Hispanic population, just 2.3%. Ohio has a larger percentage of residents who graduatd from high school, 83% v. 80% nationally. However, it lags behind the rest of the country in terms of college graduates, 21.1% in Ohio v. 24.4% nationally.
Ohio should be an interesting race.
The process is actually a two step process: 126 of the states 228 delegates are allocated based on the primary results on March4, 2008. Those delegates are allotted by a candidate's performance in each of the state's 31 state senate districts. Each district gets delegates based on Democratic turnout in past elections. Most of the remaining 102 delegates are allocated in a caucus system leading up to the state convention in June, making Texas the only state with a twin primary-caucus system.
So some urban districts in Houston, Dallas and Austin with higher Democratic turnout in the 2004 and 2006 general elections could give their winning candidate more delegates than some predominantly Hispanic districts in the Rio Grande Valley and El Paso. This is good news for Obama since these urgan districts have high concentrations of black voters.
Check out the article: