"They say in Harlan Co., there are no neutrals there..."

By: IechydDa
Published On: 2/13/2008 12:50:26 AM

Astonishingly, very few localities broke evenly or within even a 10% difference between Obama and Clinton tonight. The conclusion I come to is that aside from the 90% black vote for Obama, rural voters, from the Shenandoah Valley eastward, punished Hillary tonight for what Bill did to their sensibilities ten years ago. They had not been able to punish him at the polls following the Monica Affair, so they took it out on her (not fair but very typical to blame the wife for the husband's misdeeds), and, yes, there was some of the "audacity of hope" vote for Barak, but I don't think it can account for these huge margins.  
Obama won Virginia, 64 to 35%. He won in every congressional district, typically by two or three to one margins, except in my 9th where Hillary won 2 to 1. Hillary's coal field county margins started at 4 to 1 and trended up to 10 to 1 in Buchanan Co. (where, until 30 years ago, blacks were told by a sign not to spend the night). Only Montgomery & Floyd Cos. & Radford went for Barak in the 9th.

There are some really curious voting patterns that defy expectations based on past experience:

Obama won decisively with 55-65% in Highland & Augusta Cos., Staunton and Waynesboro, and even more surprisingly in Harrisonburg (70%!) and Rockingham and the Richmond suburbs of Chesterfield (70%) and Henrico (72%), some of the most conservative voters in Virginia. Obama eked out victory in Frederick Co., but won by 60% in adjacent Winchester (home of Harry Byrd's newspaper) and by 57% in Byrd's home Clarke Co.
Admittedly, these areas are becoming (all too regretably) part of the NoVA sprawl.

Vote rich NoVA counties & cities went 60% for Barak, despite all the hype about his strength up there (which is really down thar).

Elsewhere, in rural and urban Piedmont, Southside, Northern Neck, and Tidewater Virginia vote percentages for Obama ranging between 75-80% or much higher are commonplace. In rural counties in those parts of Va. Obama won in the 60-70% range.

In Southwest Virginia voter participation was by far the lowest. I fear prejudice (the choice between a woman and a black) and frustration with Bill depressed voting. Coalfield devotion to Bill, despite all, won the day, here.

Wild, wonderful Southwest Virginia aside, these results could herald a significant shift in party politics in Virginia.

Statewide voter turnout favored Democrats by a two to one margin. Of course, the lack of a real contest on the Republican side depressed vote totals.

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