A very few thoughts from tonight

By: teacherken
Published On: 2/12/2008 10:32:11 PM

1)  Chuck Todd says Clinton has to carry Ohio, TX and PA by 63% or she's dead.  But she is only up 10% in TX now, before Obama goes into state, and DNC member Steve Ybarra has emailed all Hispanic DNC members because he is pissed that Patty Solis Doyle, a Latina, is out (and by implication when Mark Penn is still around)

2) Look at the vote totals in Virginia with 84% reporting.  McCain had 174K and Huckabee 143K.  But Obama had 423K and  Clinton  241K.

3) The margin is so big that superdelegates are going to start to break, without waiting for WI and HI.  And if Clinton starts to go very negative, that will probably accelerate the process.

Folks -  I think it may be over, as of now.  And we had something to do with it.  


Comments



Is Texas really Clinton Country? (jlmccreery - 2/12/2008 10:48:24 PM)
Not according to this provocative analysis

http://blog.texansforobama.com...

And who knew? That the Texas delegate selection process is so totally weirdly complicated. Guess that's Texas.



As a former Texas caucus delegate... (tseaver - 2/13/2008 4:15:42 AM)
I loved the fact that the primary in Texas only set
the stage for the delegate selection process:  the folks
who really cared showed up at their precinct on election
night to begin the process of reorganizing the party,
including caucusing to select delegates to the state
senatorial district convention for their candidates.

At those conventions, we then caucused again to select
state convention delegates;  at the state convention (I was
a delegate in 1996), we selected our national convention
delegates, as well as presidential electors.  I found the
process profoundly more democratic than the quasi-open
primaries we hold here in Virginia:  ordinary folks got to
participate directly in the "horse trading" / negotiation
which Virginia reserves to the so-called super-delegates.



but this could still drag on (Chris Guy - 2/12/2008 11:10:54 PM)
until June, then nobody wins (except McCain).


Stop the Drama.. (vadem2008 - 2/12/2008 11:14:48 PM)
Vote Obama!  It's time for this to end.  Another Hillary advisor has resigned.


I don't see that happening any more. (Jack Landers - 2/13/2008 10:59:24 AM)
The only way that it goes on until June is if Obama and Clinton both keep winning a roughly equal number of delegates. But that's not what is happening here. In 8 contests in a row, Obama has beat Clinton in LANDSLIDES.

She's more or less passing on Wisconsin and Obama is taking the opportunity to run up the count there and take an even larger chunk of delegates. Even Texas is no longer looking so impregnable.

Assuming that Obama wins Wisconsin and Hawaii by similar margins to his post-Super Tuesday victories thus far, in order for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination she would have to capture about 60% of all the remaining pledged delegates from that point on.

Not going to happen. We can all see that this is not going to happen. She struggles to even approach 40% against Obama in states that were supposed to be friendly to her (Maine and Virginia).  This thing isn't going all the way until June. Not unless Clinton wants to look like the next Mike Gravel.



Thanks to Virginia (AZbirds - 2/12/2008 11:19:22 PM)
Thank you all of Virginia and Raising Kane for giving a big win for Obama.  Since working with moveon.org last fall and Jim Webb winning, I read Raising Kane everyday and I love it.  I watch Virginia because it is so important to my life in Arizona--and I get stuck with Sen. McCain.  I work hard for change since last fall and the "so called" change in Congress.  But Virginia has always made me crazy happy for all the progressive people you have there.  I was born in Tenn.  and I know Virginia is a beautiful state.  I cannot live in Tenn. because I am
too "progressive".  Tenn. should follow your lead.
I love all you do and Barack Obama will be our President.


Next Steps to Help Obama Win in Texas, Ohio, and Penn. (Keith in Arlington - 2/12/2008 11:23:48 PM)
Having spent a fair amount of time making calls and canvassing for the campaign in Northern Virginia (from the Falls Church HQ), I was impressed with the efforts of both my fellow volunteers and the full-time staffers.  It was an effective, mostly well-organized operation.  What was clear was that to win in Ohio, Texas, and Penn., we'll need the same kind of all-out effort.  And that requires money.  My take on what we in Virginia can best do for the campaign goes like this:

-- Contribute cash (as much as you can);
-- Convince your friends, families, neighbors, professional colleagues, and anyone else you know to contribute as much as they can;
-- Work the phones; the BarackObama.com website has a terrific "Make a Call" link that allows you to phone bank from your home; you can use it to help identify supporters and volunteers in other states, as well as participate in the GOTV effort (so far I've called voters in Louisiana, Maine, Virginia, and Maryland, and I plan to call Wisconsin, Mississippi, and the other upcoming primary states); and
-- Travel to another primary state if you can; not only can you accomplish something real, but you'll give volunteers there a boost by showing that this is a national movement.

But let's also be realistic; the biggest thing we can accomplish from afar is to help raise the cash needed to finance the media buys and ground-game operations in Texas and Ohio.  Contribute and convince at least two or three other people to do the same!



Excellent work . . . a cultural and poliitcal turning (Bernie Quigley - 2/13/2008 6:18:13 AM)
When historians hundreds of years from now look to the turning of the millenia and the new cultural awakening that came into the world they will look to Virginiia and they will look to last night.


It won't be over soon (Hugo Estrada - 2/13/2008 8:12:56 AM)
From what I have read of Clinton's life, this is not going to be over until it is clear that there is no way that she can't win. As long as there are enough delegates available that may give her a win, she is not going to drop out of the race.

We got to stay focus, donate and volunteer until Obama is the indisputable winner of the process.