Conference Recap on Setting the Table: The 2005 Off Year Elections and the 2006

This dilemma formed a core theme for three panel presentations sponsored by the University of Virginia Center for Politics with co-sponsorship from the Hotline.  The conference, held just around the corner from the White House at the Hotel Washington, dealt at length on the role of approval and influence on the power of the presidency, the prospects for next year?s House races, and what longer-term consequences face Republican candidates in the next presidential election.

The first panel addressed the question of current popularity.  At the start, moderator Larry Sabato introduced a chart mapping approval ratings of all second term presidents since Eisenhower.  Sabato used the chart to point discussion to one question: why has Bush?s approval ratings descended to depths matched only by Nixon? 

In the absence of a core scandal like Watergate, the panel pointed to a number of contributing causes:  the war in Iraq, Hurricane Katrina, consumer discontent over the economy, the rising crises of scandal enveloping the Republican party. Indeed, there are signs that his own reactions may be exacerbating his poor poll figures. Bush's own attempts to give a show of resoluteness over Iraq is increasingly perceived as what commentator Carl Cannon explained might be considered "pathological resistance" to the common perception of the war.

As discussion developed, a growing consensus emerged that the closed culture of the current administration may slowly be strangling the remaining power of the presidency.  Strictly controlled exposure to the electorate is leading to an increasing perception that President Bush is out of touch with the people, his loss of popularity is hamstringing his political power, and he is slowly wearing out a very small circle of advisors?many of whom are also distracted by scandal. Another point of concern is a noted observation that Bush appears to be so closely focused on his personal legacy on certain core issues, he may be willing to forgo poll ratings to accomplish his goals (especially absent pressure from a clearly designated successor). 

The second discussion brought together five top political consultants. As might be expected with a tight circle of influence peddlers, discussion quickly descended into a contest of who could out-spin whom.  However, in the midst of the political divisiveness (suffice to say, no partisan on this panel is ever going to accept that their opposition has any top tier candidates), a few interesting points were made.  First, the panel identified that 27 competitive House races exist?which struck one audience member as a bit "lame" when considered from a field of 439 seats.  All showed that whatever races do emerge, expect the campaigns to strike hard and negative. Republican wedge issues will be right to arms and abortion.  For Democrats, wedge points will be Social Security, prescription drugs, fiscal discipline and the war in Iraq.  Both sides claim scandals?although generally, the panel agreed, these rarely have a significant impact on elections. Voters tend to retain faith and confidence in their elected officials, even when regarding the overall political situation as compromised.

The final panel focused on the next electoral cycle and its prospects for Republican candidates.  The group agreed, the Republican with the best national prospects is Senator John McCain, whose older-generation version of republicanism appeals to more voters than younger, more polarized conservative candidates.  However, this appeal may fail McCain at the primary elections, where social conservatives hold sway over a significant proportion of Republican voters.

Thanks to the UVA Center for Politics and their sponsors for bringing a fascinating view of upcoming political themes. I enjoyed watching and participating (CSPAN junkies can note, that indeed was me asking the last question in the first session).  Watching the next election cycles will likely become a fascinating adventure!

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