New poll for WI has Obama up 11 points
By: teacherken
Published On: 2/12/2008 1:53:45 PM
It is from Public Policy Polling in NC, and if you hit the link on the page, you well get a PDF download.
Since I have downloaded it, let me offer some key factors.
All calls made yesterday, Feb.11
Obama, overall 50-39
he leads every demographic except over 65
Women 46-43, Men 56-35
White 494-1 Black 66-24
Dems 46-44, Repubs (open primary) 63-28, Indepen. 63-25
By age:
<30 57-37
30-45 58-29
46-65 53-36
>65 39-52
and only issue on which he does not lead is moral values! Looks more and more like 10-0 in February!
Comments
Ohio? (Jack Landers - 2/12/2008 2:52:44 PM)
Anybody seen any polls out of Ohio since Super Tuesday?
they'll start soon (DanG - 2/12/2008 2:54:48 PM)
They'll start polling Ohio soon. I'd say that we'll se a few in a few days (they'll start polling after today to see if the Potomac Primary changes any dynamics). Expect, though, most polls to focus on Wisconsin for a while.
I'd poll Ohio immediately for this reason (Jack Landers - 2/12/2008 3:46:52 PM)
I think Clinton is going to soft-pedal Wisconsin and throw everything into Ohio and Texas. From what I heard about that conference call she did yesterday, there is now a consensus emerging in the Clinton campaign that if they don't win anywhere today, TX & OH are the last stand and they've got to throw everything into winning both of those states really big.
Obama doesn't need to blow her out in both those states in order to shut her down. He just needs to hold her down in either one. Texas is going to be tougher for Obama on account of the high percentage of latinos. So odds are that everyone is going to very quickly see Ohio as the decisive contest where Hillary Clinton is either shut down or has a chance to keep fighting.
Wisconsin isn't going to seal anything either way. It's not nearly as significant as Ohio.
My point being that if I was looking for where to spend my polling dollars, I'd be polling Ohio right now and skipping Wisconsin, which is seen as a gimme for Obama so long as he puts the work into it. Which he will. Data on Ohio will be a lot more useful if there are real trend lines showing who has what momentum and to get that they'd better start polling Ohio NOW.
They are going to work Ohio (sndeak - 2/12/2008 4:14:42 PM)
Regardless of Polling. He will hit Cleveland, Columbus, Toledo/Sandusky, Youngstown, Akron/Canton, Athens and Cincinnati early and often.
Polling Ohio right now will show that HRC leads among older Democrats, union members and lower income Democrats. Ohio is very similar to Michigan with one big difference Ohio has some pockets where the ecomomy is doing ok, not great, but ok like Cincinati and Columbus.
First poll out for OHIO (DanG - 2/12/2008 5:34:52 PM)
SUSA. Obama down 17 in Ohio. Largely divided amongst racial lines. He's going to have to work hard there.
I'm in Wisconsin now (sndeak - 2/12/2008 3:10:50 PM)
Working in Green Bay...still! I will be attending the Michelle Obama rally this evening in DePere, just outside Green Bay. Barack will be in Madison at the Kohl center, which seats 17k at 6:30 tonight.
I'll be posting on the event over at VBDEMS.ORG for Eileen later.
I have been doing some calling and visibility - man it is cold up here - the past few weeks.
Poll showing Obama down 8 (DanG - 2/12/2008 3:15:06 PM)
There was a poll that was released on the 8th from ARG (which has been off by an average of 8 points this primary season in most polls) that shows Obama down big. Of course, this was pre-Nebrouisianington and Potomac. Wisconsin will be the judge of whether or not we'll have a shot at Ohio on the 4th. It'll be a pretty good example of what momentum is like.