originally posted at dailykos shortly before 7 AM
I live in Arlington, a heavily Democratic County in the 8th CD (Moran) of Virginia Today, as is my wont, I showed up to vote in my precinct (Woodlawn) about 5 minutes before the polls opened at 6 AM. I was the 18th person on line, whereas normally I am in the first 5-10 voters. By the time I voted, 15 of the people before me had voted in the Democratic primary and only two in the Republican. By the time I left at 6:10, the line was upt to 55 voters. Let me assure you that for a primary this is heavy early voting in our precinct.
I drove around the precinct and two adjacent precincts looking for signage - on lawns and on median strips. And the results were one sign for Huckabee (on a median strip), none for McCain or Clinton, and about a dozen for Obama.
Below the fold I will offer a few more observations and a bit of analysis.
Our precinct is in an elementary school that serves both a black neighborhood (High View Park) and and white neighborhood (Waycroft-Woodlawn, for whose community organization I have served on the board). Normally our early voters are almost exclusively white. Out of the fifty plus who had voted or were on line by the time I left, it was 20% African-American.
If I look at the endorsements of local officials, almost all who had supported Edwards are now supporting Obama. Thus we have all 5 members of the school board and three of the five of the County Board on team Obama. The Constitutional officers and General Assembly members do not split quite as heavily for Obama. All three Virginia Congressmen have endorsed Obama, as have two of the last three Democratic Governors (Mark Warner is officially neutral, but he used some of Obama's phraseology at the JJ Dinner on Saturday and his wife Lisa Collis is co-chair of Women for Obama Virginia).
I am on mailing lists for both campaigns. Thus I know there are multiple hdqtrs for Obama around Virginia, whereas Clinton is running her effort from her national hdqtrs, which is about a mile from my house in the Ballston section of Arlington, near the metro stop.
So what do I think will happen? I have seen no closure in the local polling. SUSA has kept it around a 20-22 point margin in VA, and 21-23 in MD (there is no polling in DC of which I am aware). Some of the others (Mason-Dixon, for example) have the difference somewhat narrower (around 15) perhaps because they do not push leaners as hard. But there is a consistent pattern - Clinton does not reach 40%. And given that for all practical purposes she is an incumbent, I would expect undecideds to break heavily in the other direction.
Predictions in primaries are always dicey. It is cold today, it may rain or snow in parts of the region. Still, I expect a heavy turnout, and would think the lower end of Obama's margin in the two states is 18%, and conceivable could reach 25. In DC it will be a blow-out: the margin will be better than 2-1, and it is not inconceivable that Obama could reach 70%.
I am not going to look too far ahead, but if both states have margins over 20%, the pressure for next week will be incredible. And I think March 4 might be too late, unless Edwards were to endorse Clinton. Consider the following
1) Clinton will be in El Paso tonight, in a state that does not vote until March 4, while Obama is in Madison, and Wisconsin votes in 7 days
2) Obama is not only already advertising in WI, but already has ads up in Ohio. Has Clinton even started any advertising beyond today's contests?
3) Everything I am hearing says that Obama is still raising money about twice as fast as Clinton. Thus he has a huge advantage in advertising, in being able to open and staff offices, not only for WI (is there anything in HI?), but also in TX and OH
4) There is some evidence in Virginia (which is open) that moderates and independents who might otherwise vote for McCain are crossing over to vote for Obama, believing that McCain has his nomination locked up - that could mean a Huckabee surprise, but it also could amplify the Obama victory here.
5) If all three of today's wins are substantial, the pressure on superdelegates to come on board for Obama will become incredible.
6) John Edwards' most important advisor is his wife, and there is ample anecdotal evidence that she wants him to support Obama. So long as he does NOT endorse Clinton, her support is going to start to wither somewhat in the light of the string of defeats
7) If the Clintons decide to go heavily negative, in my opinion it will backfire.
Of course, I have no real inside information. And I am not a political professional, merely a ordinary teacher of government to high school students. So this analysis is probably meaningless.
The polls opened in Virginia at 6, and are open until 7 PM. In Maryland both times are an hour later. It is already game on. And if the wins are as substantial as I think they will be, it may also be the beginning of game over.
Peace.
1. Clinton losing every age range except 65+, where her advantage is 1%
2. on race, Clinton wins whites 49-47, but loses Blacks 86-13 and LOSES HISPANICS 56-44. She loses "other" 63-37
3. SUSA's model is only 29% black, and from conversations at JJ dinner in Richmond I think that is probably a bit low - most people tell me they think black %age will be at least 1/3
4. regions -- Clinton wins Shenandoah 57-39, but loses all other regions: Northeast is Obama 63-35, Southeast 65-32, and Central 69-29.
This is based on polling Saturday and Sunday, and IIRC so far during the campaign Clinton has tended to perform better in weekend polls than in polls during the week
"She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she's out," said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. "The campaign is starting to come to terms with that." Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama's momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.
Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately "go with the flow," in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.
I think some of the super delegates are firing warning shots
the question of course is how negative the Clintons are willing to go in next two weeks.