Virginia is the New Maryland
By: The Grey Havens
Published On: 2/11/2008 12:11:27 PM
In reviewing recent polls for the Potomac Primary tomorrow, I was struck by how similar the preferences are across Virginia and Maryland. I wasn't the only one.
Take a look at these results from Mason-Dixon Polls conducted Feb 7-8. MoE plus-minus 5%.:
Democrats:
*Maryland: Obama 53% - Clinton 35%
*Virginia:Obama 53% - Clinton 37%
Republicans:
*Maryland: McCain 54% - Huckabee 23%
*Virginia:McCain 55% - Huckabee 27%
See that? It's almost like they're sampling from the same voting pool. It looks, more and more like that's precisely the case. Brad Corker...
As pollster Brad Coker tells us: "As politically opposite as the two states have been over the years, they are becoming more similar demographically. Primarily because of the changes in Virginia - plus these are primary races as opposed to general election races. The numbers in the Washington Metro area of Maryland are pretty similar to those in the Northern Virginia region. Both have substantial African-American votes in their Democratic primaries (36% in Maryland/30% in Virginia). Both have rural areas (Virginia's are still larger). Both have a lot of government employees. Both have working class whites (in Hampton Roads & Rural Virginia vs. in Baltimore Metro & Rural Maryland). Western Maryland and the Shenandoah Valley vote pretty much along the same lines. The Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland and the Northern Neck vote the same way. Both have outer suburb "ex-urbanites" (Loudoun/Prince William/Stafford/Spotsylvania in VA vs. Howard/Harford/Frederick/Charles in MD).
Politically, Virginia is becoming less and less a Dixie state and more and more part of the Mid-Atlantic. The ramifications cannot be overstated, and bode very well for Virginia Democrats.
Egregiously lifted from Chuck Todd's "NBC First Read", a must subscribe email list if there ever was one.
Comments
I wouldn't phrase it quite like that... (Jack Landers - 2/11/2008 12:16:49 PM)
Them's fighting' woids in much of Virginia.
Yes, politically Virginia has become far more moderate. But let's phrase it such a way that doesn't make people in most of the Commonwealth resent the fact.
Agreed (DanG - 2/11/2008 1:36:55 PM)
We aren't Dixie, we aren't Mid-Atlantic. We are who we are. We're Virginians. Trying to put us in a box and label us is just ridiculous.
WE ARE VIRGINIA! :-) (Doug in Mount Vernon - 2/11/2008 1:39:04 PM)
I wrote this one just for you guys (The Grey Havens - 2/11/2008 1:41:21 PM)
Regardless of labels, you can't deny how strikingly similar these poll results are.
It's really amazing. I'm just looking forward to when North Carolina becomes the new Virginia ;)
It's almost there... (KathyinBlacksburg - 2/11/2008 3:05:08 PM)
NC, that is. In 2004 Wake County (home of Raleigh and Cary) voted for John Cary. Even many relatively high-income precincts that voted for Bush in 2000 did so.
NC was and is on the move.
And let's not forget (KathyinBlacksburg - 2/11/2008 3:06:51 PM)
eight years of Democratic leadership in the NC governor's mansion. That's more consistently Democratic than here. And last time Dems took one house in the legislature there too. Onward!
Interesting Take... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 2/11/2008 1:42:15 PM)
I do think that Virginia and Maryland do have a lot in common, even while there are prominent differences.
Clearly, to those downstate, they may not feel this as powerfully as NoVA does, but I think folks in Allegheny or Queen Anne counties in MD probably think largely the same as those in Highland or Wise counties in VA...
At any rate, we do have a changing political climate in VA, even outside of the changes in the national atmosphere, largely because demographically we are beginning to look more like the rest of the country, and even the World.
Regardless, we are becoming a politically important state.
"becoming" (Alter of Freedom - 2/11/2008 8:02:24 PM)
We have always been politically important Doug. Lok at our history and those who have served the nation that have been from Virginia. Take a scroll through the historic cemetary in Richmond.
I t should be Virginia's focus to take hold of the leadershiop in the nation and influence we once had however.
As to the comparison to Maryland, there is little. With the exception of this little twist I guess. No one could ever confuse Maryland for Virginia friends. Maybe people who like to think that NVA is indicitive of all VA may draw comparisons but that is where they end. While it is true that NVA may be beginning to mirror Maryland and has been called its bedroom community, well DC's anyway, all the way to Warrenton and as far south as Stafford the rest of Old Virginia appears to be quite a different tale.
Maybe it is truly a tale of two Virginia's we are witnessing.
Compare Virginia to New Hampshire, not Maryland (Shenandoah Democrat - 2/11/2008 8:30:56 PM)
The growth in NoVA and the purpling of a red state are very similar to what has occurred in New Hampshire. Both NH and Virginia are at opposite ends of the northeast megalopolis, which is arguably the largest concentration of wealth, industry, culture and power on the planet. The outward growth of the megalopolis into southern NH and NoVA is what has turned these otherwise reliably red states to blue.