Which pollsters did the best and who did the worst on Tsunami Tuesday? Let's go state by state in cases where there was significant polling (source is Real Clear Politics, a great resource by the way):
Alabama
Results: Obama +14
Nobody really came close here, but Insider Advantage and SurveyUSA each had it Obama +2 in their last polls.
Arizona
Results: Clinton +9 (with 93% counted)
The Real Clear Politics average had it Clinton +6, indicating that the polls did pretty well here. Rasmussen had it Clinton +6 and Behavior Research Center had it Clinton +10 (that poll was a bit older). Nobody messed it up too badly in recent polls (e.g., the last few days before the election).
California
Results: Clinton +10 (with 84% counted)
Zogby COMPLETELY blew this one with its Obama +13 prediction. Awful. SurveyUSA nailed it exactly, predicting Clinton +10. Nice job by SurveyUSA, not so nice by Zogby.
Connecticut
Reults: Obama +4
SurveyUSA again does very well, predicting Obama +2. Rasmussen had it tied in a slightly older poll, which isn't too bad at all. Not much polling in Connecticut overall.
Georgia
Results: Obama +36
All the polls predicted that Obama would win this state, but none by this kind of margin. Zogby had it +22 Obama and Strategic Vision (a Republican outfit) had it +22 Obama. Not bad.
Illinois
Results: Obama +31
The Chicago Tribune called it exactly, Obama +31. SurveyUSA had it Obama +36, almost exactly right.
Massachusetts
Results: Clinton +15
SurveyUSA nailed it, predicting Clinton +17. Suffolk/WHDH had it Obama +2 - not!
Missouri
Results: Obama +1
Zogby had it Obama +3, not bad at all. SurveyUSA had it Clinton +11 -- wrong!
New Jersey
Results: Clinton +10
SurveyUSA had it Clinton +11, almost exactly right. All polls did well here, pretty much.
New York
Results: Clinton +17
SurveyUSA had it Clinton +18. Quinnipiac had it Clinton +14. Excellent job by both pollsters.
Oklahoma
Results: Clinton +24
SurveyUSA had it Clinton +27, which is not bad at all, but the Sooner Poll nailed it -- Clinton +24. Nice job!
Tennessee
Results: Clinton +13
Rasmussen pegged it at Clinton +14, almost exactly right. Insider Advantage had it Clinton +20, the right winner but too wide a spread.
Overall, the oft-maligned pollsters did very well yesterday. There was one glaring exception -- Zogby COMPLETELY botched California -- but besides that, the polls were excellent guides to the final results in most states that were polled.
About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.