841- Obama
837- Clinton
More from teacherken:
These numbers were giving Clinton the benefit of the doubt in CA that they come out +34 the net on the night would be Obama +4. If Obama's people were right that she comes out +15 from California, he would be +42. In other words, if Chuck is right, or even close to right, in delegates selected and pledged Obama is still ahead. The forthcoming schedule:
Saturday Feb. 9th
Louisiana Primary (7 delegates)
Nebraska Caucus (31 delegates)
Washington Caucus (97 delegates)
Virgin Islands Other (9 delegates)
Tuesday Feb. 12th -- The Potomac Primary
District Primary (37 delegates)
Maryland Primary (99 delegates)
Virginia Primary (101 delegates)
Tuesday Feb 19th
Hawaii Caucus (29 delegates)
Wisconsin Primary (92 delegates)
And then nothing until March. In all of those, I give a big advantage to Obama over next two weeks.
UPDATE by Lowell: According to CNN, Clinton barely leads in pledged delegates, 632-626 over Barack Obama. Also, John Edwards has 26 pledged delegates.
UPDATE by Lowell: Josh Marshall sums it up very well as always.
But I think all these competing scenarios make one point clear. The only arguments for one side or the other being a winner here come down to airy and finally meaningless arguments about expectations. And the result tells a different tale. It's about delegates. It's dead even. You've got two well-funded candidates who've demonstrated an ability to power back from defeats. And neither is going anywhere.
Not just that, but he's got more cash to push this thing through. Also, as evidenced by some of the states he's won, the more time he spends in a state, the better the chance he has to win it.
Next week, the elections are here in DC, MD and the Old Dominion.
Virginia Matters!
This will stretch out possibly until April, but understand that it's all just expanded exposure to Obama, and the more people see him, the more they understand what his candidacy and Presidency will mean to this nation.
It's been a surging trend for Obama since South Carolina, who came up against the strongest name in Democratic politics tonight and won more states, more votes, and more delegates, with the promise of greater things to come.
That's a Victory!
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...
P.S. If Hillary loses N.M. she will have won only 8 states tonight.
Hillary, on the other hand, held the states she really needed to hold, like New Jersey, and won convincingly in California, showing that her base of support, particularly the Latino vote -- withstood the Obama surge of the past week.
The Massachusetts vote was significant as well. I understand that she was way ahead in the state and Obama caught up considerably, but the perception of her victory was that the Kennedys are not all-powerful leaders of the Democratic party, and I think arguably it blunts the impact of those high-profile endorsements (not that I thought they would live up to their billing anyway). In fact, Ted Kennedy was probably the biggest loser out of all this, at least in terms of perceptions.
Based on the excitement of many Obama supporters expressed over the last 10 days, I have to think at some level you are disappointed that he did not deliver a more decisive blow to Clinton. After all, everything seemed to align for him in the wake of S.C.
I'm guessing they are breathing a heavy sigh of relief over at Clinton headquarters this morning.
...Obama now has a clear path to the nomination. The Clinton campaign is going to talk a lot of super delegates and a lot of Florida and Michigan, but right now Obama has the edge of pledged delegates, resources, and momentum generating activists. If he can sweep Beltway Tuesday, avoid a surprise in Wisconsin on February 19th, and then win both Ohio and Texas, he will be the nominee. Of course, that is a lot of ifs, and every time someone has had a chance to take a stranglehold on the nomination this season, the other candidate has stepped up.
My guess: Obama wins Virginia, Maryland and DC, plus the other states leading up to Ohio and Texas on March 4. That should determine it right there, and my money -- emphasis on the word money, which Obama has more of than Clinton -- is on Obama. Also, the longer this goes on, the more Obama's movement will build. In other words, Obama has "upside potential," as his campaign is arguing. In contrast, I believe that Clinton has pretty much hit her ceiling. We'll see in coming weeks, including next Tuesday right here in Virginia.
If you look at the popular vote totals from the primary states last night, they are pretty much split 50-50. I think if you spend a lot of times on Progressive blogs like I and many people who post here do (not just on RF and DK, BTW) you can easily get a skewed view of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates out among the Democratic electorate.
Wish I had read it first.
February 9, 2008
Louisiana (56 pledged delegates)
Nebraska caucuses (24)
Washington caucuses (78)
U.S. Virgin Islands (3)
February 10, 2008
Maine caucuses (24)
February 12, 2008
DC (15)
Maryland (70)
Virginia (83)
February 19, 2008
Hawaii caucuses (20)
Wisconsin (74)
As far as I can tell, Obama's in strong shape in all of these states, which have a total of 447 pledged delegates at stake.