Tsunami Tuesday Results Thread #1

By: Lowell
Published On: 2/5/2008 7:39:52 PM

Time to start a new thread, this time for results (finally!).  Also, whatever exit poll information you're hearing would be very interesting.  For instance, take this with a HUGE grain of salt, but Drudge reports "OBAMA LARGE IN EXIT POLLS."  

Also, ABC News just reported that their exit polls indicate Democratic voters going for "change" heavily over "experience" (52%-23%).  IF true, that would favor Obama, but again, I'm taking these exit poll results with a huge grain -- a PILLAR -- of salt!

Polls close in Georgia at 7 PM eastern time.  Obama should win there, the question is how big.

UPDATE: The AP provides "exit poll highlights" here. "Overall, Obama led among men and Clinton led among women, although her advantage among women appeared smaller than was seen in early primary states."

UPDATE #2: I have absolutely no idea what to make of this. I'm extremely skeptical, but thought I'd pass it along since that's what is floating around out there right now.

UPDATE #3: CNN just called Georgia for Obama -- that was fast!  CNN has exit poll results from Georgia.  Obama won almost all demographics except for older whites (e.g., over 60). Chris Cillizza said earlier today that if the networks "call it the moment the polls close" then "that's good news for Obama."  Well, they did -- right on the dot at 7 PM.

UPDATE #4 : Some potential voting issues in California.  Apparently. independent voters are supposed to fill out some extra bubble declaring their intent to vote in the Democratic primary; if they don't, the optical machines don't count their ballot.  We'll see if the vote is close enough to make this matter. -- Rob


Comments



obama wins GA (Chris Guy - 2/5/2008 8:01:00 PM)
CNN calls it


So did MSNBC... (ericy - 2/5/2008 8:03:08 PM)

They waited until 7pm on the dot and they called it.

The question of delegate allocations is more complicated, so we won't know that for a while.



Exit poll (Adam Malle - 2/5/2008 8:23:25 PM)
Based on MSNBC exit polls Obama got 86% of black vote witch made up 52% of the vote total. He won 43% of non-AA that made up 48%.
52*0.86=44.72
48*0.43=20.64
Exit poll total=65.36


CHuck Todd says Obama might win big in GA (teacherken - 2/5/2008 8:24:05 PM)
60-28

backtracking from the split of African-American and White voters, and the percentages of each won by Obama, seems to imply that Obama would win statewide by around 30% or even more, but not the 50+ in that circulated email

and the way the people are talking on MS-NBC seems to imply that the early exit polls also seem to point in the direction of something significant for Obama

but remember - in some of these states there was a lot of early voting, which may well have tilted towards Clinton

and there are some real problems with ballots for the DTS (independent) voters which might mean they don't get counted and will have to be challenged

regardless of the outcome, Obama as of now looks like running even with Clinton, or perhaps a bit ahead... and that would be the message going into WA caucuses this week and the metro area regional primaries next

oh, and national exit polls probably do NOT include today's caucus states, in which Obama should do very well



A similar result from SC (Chris Guy - 2/5/2008 8:35:57 PM)
even without Edwards. Impressive.


oh, and did you know about the portent from the heavens? (teacherken - 2/5/2008 8:26:40 PM)
CNN interrupted their coverage about ten of 7 with a story of severe weather in the heardland

and the most important story

an on the ground tornado, headed right for the heart of

CLINTON, ARKANSAS!!!



Gergen talking about Obama winning big with white men in the South (WillieStark - 2/5/2008 8:44:37 PM)
....wow....

Dobbs just said that he didnt think that was a big deal because most whites he knows in the south are not racist.

No idea what is the truth there, but i can...hope....



8PM MSNBC update.... (ericy - 2/5/2008 9:02:05 PM)

Well at the top of the hour, MSNBC was ready with some more projections.

Illinois goes for Obama.  No surprise.
Oklahoma goes for Clinton.
New Jersey too close.

Republicans.

McCain takes Illinois.
McCain takes Connecticut.
Romney takes Massachusetts.



TN for Clinton (teacherken - 2/5/2008 9:20:36 PM)
that was expected -  but was her margin cut?

nationwide,Hispanics breaking 60-38 for Clinton, which means Obama is doing better than some expected

in CT Clinton drawing less than 55% of women