All the polls point to a very close race tomorrow night. But based on a number of factors, I think the HUGE turnout will be the big story tomorrow, especially on the Democratic side.
So, here is my best guesstimate as to what I think will happen tomorrow, state by state. I am not even attempting to guess what delegate counts will be in each state. The rules vary from state to state and with the possibiity that bonus delegates will or could be in play tomorrow in several different states, I think it is really difficult for anyone to give an educated guess. So, here we go:
Clinton States: New York, New Jersey, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Utah, California.
Obama States: Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Alabama, North Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona, Alaska.
Obama is surging in California and the polls that came out during the last 24 hours are sending mixed messages. I do not think Obama's late surge in California will be enough to put him over the top but he will come out of the state with a lot of delegates based on the way California allocates delegates.
A couple of things to watch for in California:
1. Obama needs a big turnout of declined to state voters, especially in Northern California counties like Contra Costa County, Sacramento Countym, Sonoma County, Napa County, Monterey County and San Mateo County. These counties normally vote Democratic but voted for Schwarzenegger due to his strong support from declined to state voters. Obama should win northern California - but northern California has the largest concentration of declined to state voters in the entire state. Normally, declined to state voters comprise 15% of voters in a primary. If he can get this number above 20% statewide, with an even bigger percentage in northern California, that would be a good sign. And keep in mind, the Republican party in California has barred declined to state voters from participating in their primary.
2. According to the latest MSNBC poll, Obama was gaining with Hispanic voters; his percentage was up to 36%, from 24% two weeks ago. The percentage of Hispanic voters in California is equal to the total percentage of all African-American and Asian voters combined. So, watch to see if Obama's strength with Afican-Amercian and Asian voters can offset Clinton's margins with Hispanic voters. If that is the case, that would be a good sign for Obama, since late polls show Obama beating Clinton among white voters.
3. This one is a no-brainer. Obama needs a huge turnout of young people under the age of 30 in California and would need to carry this group of voters by at least a margin of 55-45, but probably greater, in order to carry the state.
So, for better of for worse, that's what I think will happen tomorrow. But who knows?
It looks like I was wrong about California - new Zogby poll stretching over Sunday and Monday and just released at 1:00 am EST on February 5, 2007 has Obama ahead in California by 13 points!!!!!!!!
Yippie!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here's the link!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/200...