SurveyUSA showing late Hillary momentum in large states?

By: SaveElmer
Published On: 2/4/2008 6:52:57 PM

CA

Hillary 53
Obama   41

MA

Hillary 56
Obama   39

Missouri

Hillary 54
Obama   43

New York

Hillary 56
Obama   38

Pennsylvania

Hillary 51
Obama   39

http://www.surveyusa.com/elect...


Comments



This would be contrary to the other polls (DanG - 2/4/2008 8:21:38 PM)
It is certainly possible.  But these results would contradict not only other state polls, but national trends as well.  Hillary may win these states, but I have a hard time believing by these number.  12 points in CA?  I think not.  11 in Missouri?  No way.  16 in MA?  Unlikely.


I'll also remind you that (DanG - 2/4/2008 8:23:33 PM)
SUSA is ranked 14th among the major polling organizations in terms of accuracy, well behind Zogby, CNN and ABC, all of which paint a prettier picture for Obama.


I believe they used autmoated calling (teacherken - 2/4/2008 9:21:06 PM)
with the respondent pressing a button.  Ghat might account for their inaccuracy


They do (DanG - 2/4/2008 9:24:39 PM)
It's cheap, and sometimes effective.  But it's very "hit or miss."  They're either right on the money, or WAY off.  My hope is that they are way off, obviously.


I remember SurveyUSA . . . (JPTERP - 2/4/2008 10:12:03 PM)
for the Virginia Senate election 2006 -- with Webb at 52% and Allen at 44% the day before the election.  

That would have been nice.

Rasmussen nailed the Virginia election at 49%-49% -- 100% on the mark.

The main problem with SurveyUSA is that it does a very bad job of capturing undecideds and leaners.  The New York and Missouri numbers look right.  Massachusetts may play along similar lines.  I think California will be close to a 50-50 race.  



I dispute the word "surge" (Rob - 2/4/2008 11:18:27 PM)
Compared to the last SUSA poll in California, Hillary ticked up 3 points (which is within the MOE).  So that's not surging, that's staying the same or moving up slightly.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...