SurveyUSA showing late Hillary momentum in large states?
By: SaveElmer
Published On: 2/4/2008 6:52:57 PM
CA
Hillary 53
Obama 41
MA
Hillary 56
Obama 39
Missouri
Hillary 54
Obama 43
New York
Hillary 56
Obama 38
Pennsylvania
Hillary 51
Obama 39
http://www.surveyusa.com/elect...
Comments
This would be contrary to the other polls (DanG - 2/4/2008 8:21:38 PM)
It is certainly possible. But these results would contradict not only other state polls, but national trends as well. Hillary may win these states, but I have a hard time believing by these number. 12 points in CA? I think not. 11 in Missouri? No way. 16 in MA? Unlikely.
I'll also remind you that (DanG - 2/4/2008 8:23:33 PM)
SUSA is ranked 14th among the major polling organizations in terms of accuracy, well behind Zogby, CNN and ABC, all of which paint a prettier picture for Obama.
I believe they used autmoated calling (teacherken - 2/4/2008 9:21:06 PM)
with the respondent pressing a button. Ghat might account for their inaccuracy
They do (DanG - 2/4/2008 9:24:39 PM)
It's cheap, and sometimes effective. But it's very "hit or miss." They're either right on the money, or WAY off. My hope is that they are way off, obviously.
I remember SurveyUSA . . . (JPTERP - 2/4/2008 10:12:03 PM)
for the Virginia Senate election 2006 -- with Webb at 52% and Allen at 44% the day before the election.
That would have been nice.
Rasmussen nailed the Virginia election at 49%-49% -- 100% on the mark.
The main problem with SurveyUSA is that it does a very bad job of capturing undecideds and leaners. The New York and Missouri numbers look right. Massachusetts may play along similar lines. I think California will be close to a 50-50 race.
I dispute the word "surge" (Rob - 2/4/2008 11:18:27 PM)
Compared to the last SUSA poll in California, Hillary ticked up 3 points (which is within the MOE). So that's not surging, that's staying the same or moving up slightly.
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...