If you haven't seen the study recently released by two Virginia Tech professors (Robert Lang and Dawn Dhavale) on the 2005 Governor's Race, I strongly recommend it. If you don't have time to read the whole thing, here are some highlights:First, Virginia is divided into 4 distinct regions:
...the "Capital Region" (or Richmond and its suburbs), "Northern Virginia" (or suburban Washington, DC), "Shenandoah" (or most of western Virginia), and the "Tidewater" (or the lower Chesapeake Bay area).
Second, these regions vary widely (not exactly a big surprise, I realize). For instance, population density in 2004 ranged from 85.6 in Shenandoah to 963.6 in Northern Virginia - a difference of more than 11-fold. In terms of total population, Shenandoah had the most (2.17 million), but Northern Virginia (2.15 million) was close behind, with Tidewater at 1.81 million and the "Capital Region" at 1.33 million. Most significantly, perhaps, is that Northern Virginia is BY FAR growing the most rapidly, with 9.7% growth between 2000 and 2004. This compares to just 1.9% growth for Shenandoah. That means that Northern Virginia will soon be the largest region in Virginia, if it isn't already. (Tidewater also looks likely to surpass Shenandoah soon enough, as it is growing more than twice as rapidly).
Third, Northern Virginia is BY FAR the most affluent area of the state. In fact, the authors point out that NOVA would be the richest state in the country if it were a separate entity.
Fourth, Tim Kaine won "three of the four Virginias." In NOVA, Kaine won 58.7% of the vote. Kaine also won Tidewater (53.3%) and the "Capital Region" (50.6%). According to the authors, "Kaine lost Shenandoah but still received a respectable 45 share of the vote in this historically conservative region." In other words, Kaine won the fastest growing parts of the state, including his resounding win in NOVA, while losing the slow-growing Shenandoah region. Needless to say, this bodes EXTREMELY well for the future of Democrats in Virginia.
Fifth, Kaine won by an enormous margin (73.4% of the vote) in NOVA's "urban suburbs" (Arlington and Alexandria), but he also won big (60.3%) in the "mature suburbs" of Fairfax and Falls Church. Perhaps most significantly, Kaine won the "emerging suburbs" (Loudoun, Prince William, Manassas City and Manassas Park), the fastest-growing parts parts of NOVA, with 50.3% of the vote. In contrast, John Kerry lost those suburbs in 2004, with just 45.3% of the vote. This is also GREAT news for the Democrats in Virginia.
Sixth, according to the authors, Tim Kaine won by running as a "moderate," but also by "roll[ing] out ads that directly addressed the concerns of residents in fast-growing suburban and exurban counties." This has direct implications for Democrats in Virginia and across the country, in both 2006 and 2008.
Finally, the authors point out that Kaine's victories in Loudoun and Prince William Counties could mean that exurbia is "up for grabs." The authors add that, although it is...
...likely that Republicans can still count on the exurbs to swing their way, yet it may be hard to claim a solid lock on these places. Kaine has shown that with a direct appeal to quality of life issues, Democrats can at least compete in the exurbs.
The authors conclude on a hopeful note, if you're a Democrat that is:
The last two presidential elections have seen close Electoral College margins. In both 2000 and 2004, the shift of just a single state would have changed the outcome. The next presidential election could well come down to the exurbs of Ohio or Florida. A Democratic campaign that even slightly shaves some of the Republican advantage in the Loudoun Counties of America may prove the winning strategy. Even if it does not work, the growth politics card will almost certainly be played and that may prove the most lasting impact of the 2005 Virginia election.
Among other lessons I draw from all this, I'd say that Mark Warner's chances in 2008 are looking better and better all the time. President Warner? I could certainly get used to saying that!
P.S. Great job by Robert Lang and Dawn Dhavale!