With just 2 days to go until "Tsunami Tuesday," it doesn't get much closer than it is right now. According to Zogby:
*Barack Obama leads 45%-41% in California among "likely Democratic voters." That's great news, but I actually think it's even better, given that the "California GOP will accept only registered Republicans in the primary, but Democrats will take undeclareds too." Finally, there's the issue of turnout: this poll counts "likely voters," but given the expected record turnout Tuesday, plus the well-known problem with surveying young voters (cell phones), I'm skeptical that the poll is capturing all of Obama's support. Anyway, I'll certainly take a 45%-41% lead if that's what it is.
(By the way, the San Francisco Chronicle reports, "A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.")
*In Georgia, it's a South Carolina-style blowout for Obama, who leads 48%-28% in the Zogby poll.
*In New Jersey, it's essentially tied, with Clinton at 43% and Obama at 42% and 14% undecided. Given Obama's momentum, if those undecideds break for him, he certainly could win New Jersey on Tuesday. (Note: Another poll, this one by Monmouth University/Gannett has Clinton with a 50%-36% lead in NJ)
*In Missouri, Zogby has it at 44% Clinton, 43% Obama, 13% undecided among "likely Democrats." (Note: American Research Group has it Obama 44%-Clinton 42%)
In other polling, the latest poll from New Mexico has Obama leading Clinton by 6 points, 48%-42%, with 10% undecided.
A new poll in Utah shows Obama leading Clinton 53%-29% among "likely" Democratic voters.
A new Rasmussen poll has it Clinton 46%-Obama 41% among "likely" Democratic voters in Arizona. Rasmussen adds, "The race remains fluid and nearly one-third of the voters say they might change their mind."
Finally (for now), the Washington Post has Clinton leading 47%-43% nationally among "likely" Democratic voters.
The bottom line is that the Democratic race is extremely tight, with Obama gaining in almost all state and national polling. What will happen Tuesday is anyone's guess; damned if I know!
On the Democratic side, the race is between Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, the former first lady. Obama is the more inspirational orator; his appeal to a post-partisan spirit of unity resonates with younger voters.Clinton, meanwhile, touts herself as the race's experienced, proven leader - a reference to her time as first lady as much as to her short tenure in the Senate. However, Clinton is a polarizing figure and many Americans are uncomfortable with the role of the former president in her campaign.
RASMUSSEN POLL:CA: Obama 45% Clinton 44%
McCain 38% Romney 38%GA: McCain 31% Romney 29% Huck 28%
Obama 52% Clinton 37%
AZ
Clinton 45%
Obama 37%
CA
Clinton 43%
Obama 40%
MS
Clinton 47%
Obama 38%
NJ
Clinton 49%
Obama 37%
TN
Clinton 49%
Obama 35%
Plus, Hillary's lead in CA is down to 2.5 when all the polls on RCP are averaged together. Regardless, if Obama can keep up the fight here, then Hillary can't count on the mountain of support. Obama wants to put this race into extra innings. He campaigns better when he has more time to do so. If he can virtually split Super Tuesday with Hillary Clinton, he remain is a good position to win it all.
In California's Democratic Presidential Primary, Barack Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Barack Obama with 45% of the vote while Hillary Clinton earns 44%.
GoObama! :)
I give up on this race. I can't figure out what the heck is going on.
I'm still sticking with my 54-17 prediction of a New England win in the Super Bowl, though.