Some "interesting" polling data:
By: teacherken
Published On: 2/1/2008 6:27:59 PM
I was listening to XM coming home, the POTUS08 channel, and a guy came on from Zogby to give details of the latest Zogby interactive polls nationwide, running all 4 races among the top two on each side - that is, general election races.
I don't have details, because I was driving, but it was easy to remember the spreads.
Here's the thing. Clinton loses to both Romney and McCain by 8.
Obama beats Romney by 8, thus is +16 on Clinton
Obama beats McCain by 13, thus is +21 on Clinton
granted, interactive. With all the caveats that should apply.
Anyone want to posit explanations?
I think the difference in performance over McCain is that the difference in age and clear difference on war is one part. So is the ability of Obam to draw independents, and the number of Republicans still unwilling to support McCain (high undecided in that matchup).
Peace.
Comments
And Hillary Clinton is still the favorite (DanG - 2/1/2008 6:36:46 PM)
Sometimes, Democrats drive me crazy. ;)
Obama is surging (aznew - 2/1/2008 7:20:31 PM)
There is no denying that. The question -- still unanswered -- is when will it stop.
The perfect storm that hit the Hillary Clinton campaign this week was really astounding. Perhaps given a few weeks for everything to settle down, she could have recovered.
I still think California is the key for Clinton. If she cannot hold that, then she is done.
Any poll where you have to opt in...is worthless... (SaveElmer - 2/1/2008 6:40:43 PM)
Not much above an online CNN poll...
That Is A Very Important Point (HisRoc - 2/1/2008 7:45:03 PM)
The Zogby numbers are counter-intuitive when you look at the other polls based on scientific sampling. Rasmussen, for example, has McCain beating Obama by 6 points and beating Clinton by 8.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...
So where's Bill Clinton? (j_wyatt - 2/1/2008 6:54:40 PM)
He's been atypically silent the last week or so.
Any sightings?
Perhaps he had urgent business in Kazakhstan that's going to keep him out of the U.S. until next Wednesday.
Maybe Borat knows something.
My Name Is Borat (HisRoc - 2/1/2008 7:46:59 PM)
An' if you donna vote for my good friend Clintone, then you be execute!
Now he's out badmouthing Ted Kennedy (Rebecca - 2/2/2008 12:40:42 AM)
Bill is a real loser.... He needs a day job.
Where's Bill? (j_wyatt - 2/2/2008 6:17:08 PM)
As the race tightens this weekend, you would think he should be more visible as an advocate for his spouse. I mean, Senator Clinton said he's no different than the other supportive spouses who are on the campaign trail. Michele Obama's all over the place, Cindy McCain's at her man's side 24/7, so where's the Bill half of Billary?
Or are they holding him in reserve for color commentary on Tuesday?
COMMENT HIDDEN (SaveElmer - 2/1/2008 6:58:22 PM)
Sen. Obama has admitted it was a "bonehead move" (j_wyatt - 2/1/2008 8:16:32 PM)
What else you got or is that it?
That is interesting polling, but it is hard to (bladerunner - 2/1/2008 9:52:28 PM)
believe polls now days. Especially with all these close elections. The polls do make some sense as to my thinking though. I think that Hillary does say a lot of good things, BUT and that's a big BUT, there is no way that she can win a General election--I repeat NO WAY!!! She just can't. Too many people don't like her. And I know it's tiring to hear, but she unites the GOP like no other. People are tired of the Clintons. I am quite sure that is why Murdoch gave her money way back when. And I am quite sure there's some kind of hidden support for her from the GOP side cause they want her as an opponent. It's about the Independents. Independents will break toward McCain if he's the GOP candidate against Hillary.
If I was a debating coach with Obama I would teach him to answer a little more decisively. To me when he is thinking of his response it looks like he doesn't know the answer. Even if he is trying to collect his thoughts, it makes him look unprepared. Hillary doesn't seem to have this problem.
Your 2nd para. sums up my only discomfort about Obama. It's not just debate prep. (Tom Counts - 2/3/2008 2:14:39 PM)
It's unrealistic to expect a "debating coach" to teach Obama how to be prepared to answer questions in areas where he hasn't had time to learn about the subjects he and his staff know he'll eventually get questions from the media (I say eventually because I doubt he will get any serious questions he hasn't already heard until the general election campaign). I think too much has been said about who has the most "experience". What I believe is important about "experience" is what a person has learned over the years, and how it may apply to the job at hand, regardless of how that knowledge has been gained. And no matter how intelligent a person is it does take many years to learn all that person must know to "think on his/her feet" and be able to answer questions from memory (debates are essentially a closed-book exam) and without subject matter experts alongside who can provide the answer.
Said another way, educational "experience" is the most commonly accepted way we gain knowledge AND understanding.
I emphasize "understanding" because rote memorization we sometime employ to cram for an exam may work well for a college exam, but when the "exam" is a debate it requires clear understanding, and having only enough time to cram for the debate exam (memorize)but not enough time to gain a true understanding opens up the Pandora's box of the candidate looking like he/she "doesn't know the answer". I've observed that this has been the case for a few questions for which Obama was unable to answer decisively simply because he hasn't had enough time to have gained the combined knowledge and understanding on the many areas Clinton is able to address fairly comprehensively, decisively and without hestitation.
I realize of course, that my remarks may seem to be a form of age discrimination, and in a way they are. But the large body of knowledge and understanding involved takes decades to learn. I concede that this reality doesn't always seem fair to younger generation people but it does scare me at times when a leader, even a young corporate executive, hasn't lived long enough yet to know what he/she must know to make crucial decisions and must therefore depend on those "subject matter experts" without knowing if the advice (or the person)can be trusted - except by asking another expert without knowing if the 2nd person's advice can be trusted. Bush is a horrible extreme example of what can happen if a totally ignorant "leader" accepts false advice from an "expert" (George Tenet of CIA infamy) with no knowledge to determine if the expert can be trusted. Obviously, there is no real analogy here since Bush couldn't have learned enough if he'd been at it for 100 years because of his frighteningly low level of intelligence. By obvious contrast, both Clinton and Obama are clearly highly intelligent and both have a proven ability to learn very quickly. It just takes even brilliant minds many years to learn that much.
Just some rambling thoughts. But the bottom line I think is that both Obama and Clinton know and understand much more about the full range of issues than does McCain. And McCain's ability to respond calmly (especially calmly), clearly and decisely seems very limited to me.
T.C.
Yeah, I'll posit an explanation (Va Blogger2 - 2/2/2008 12:39:22 AM)
Zogby Interactive polls are absolutely worthless. In 2006, they were the most inaccurate polls, behind even SurveyUSA. They are opt-in online polls with the most questionable methodology of any polling organization.
Zogby International, which relies on live caller phone interviews, remains a reasonable souce of public opinion data. Zogby Interactive was a great experiment for the 21st Century that failed miserably, and should not be trusted by anyone.
Amen. (Jack Landers - 2/2/2008 1:30:43 PM)
Zogby's interactive online polls were a neat idea, but his results have been terrible. They utterly fail to have any relationship to actual election results.
Now his more traditional phone polls are still good, IMHO.
Polls at this point (tx2vadem - 2/2/2008 1:04:05 AM)
are meaningless. We are not into the general election. McCain was not able to survive the Republican machine when it was turned against him by Bush. All that nastiness from 2000 makes it easier for us to just photocopy the smear and mail it out again. And as I recall, Senator Clinton was down against Giuliani well ahead of that famous Senatorial election.
I'm not worried. The Republican establishment has done such a good job of ridiculing Senator McCain. It just makes our job that much easier. Thank you Thad Cochran, et al!
On Romney, I doubt he will win. But who can say. The sad fact is that explicit discrimination against the LDS church and its membership still exists today. That presents a barrier to him winning despite what any poll says.