This is promising news from Texas:

November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%...Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos.

That's a gain of 24 points in just a month for Obama.

The key there is a shift in Latino support.  If he can cut into Hillary's support in California, New Mexico, and Arizona, he can do some serious damage to Hillary Clinton.

Looking just at the 2 days of data with Edwards out, the race just went from 41/32 Clinton/Obama to 44/42.

That's a TEN POINT BOUNCE for Obama.

Huge, huge momentum. It's pretty clear where those Edwards votes are going now. More than 3 to 1 for Obama. If the remainder of Edwards' former support settles out like it has so far, Obama and Clinton will be tied nationally at 45% each going into Super Tuesday.

Wow.  

Clarification: it was around 41/32/16 right before Edwards dropped. Data from the 2 days without Edwards has averaged to 44/42.

the late-breaking Edwards vote might not be as heavily in Obama's favor, on the assumption that he gained a surge right away. Still, if these polls are accurate, the pundits all had it wrong, yet again.

The pundits have just been horrible thus far.  They haven't been even close in terms of predicting where the voters are.

I bet that a lot of the remaining undecided former Edwards people made up their minds after last night's debate.

Tomorrow we will have 3 consecutive days of post-Edwards numbers and we'll have a really good idea of what is happening nationally.

These 2 big new endorsements are going to help Obama's numbers even more in California. Everything is coming together perfectly at exactly the perfect time. Barack Obama has incredible momentum here.

Clinton Inc. has a lock on CA Hispanic votes.

The early voting by mail-in tends to be seniors and that bloc has probably gone for Clinton as well.  Since these are folks whose minds were made up some time ago, Obama's increasing strength in the daily polls has little to do with them.

Democratic women over fifty is a demographic that is very strong for Clinton.

But that still leaves some large chunks of the CA population receptive to Obama.

Contrary to CNN's instant analysis after last night's debate, Northern California is Obama country.

The decisive votes may be cast by the 18 through early 30's.  On the Democratic side in CA, that group is particularly progressive.  So the big question is are they going to turn out in large numbers?  In 2004, for Kerry, they did not.

then Obama should do well. If nothing else, he has been bringing out young voters who have traditionally not shown up at the polls.

The 18 through early 30's Democratic demographic may not be accurately reflected in polls if it's telephone polling. Few, if any, within that CA demographic are accessible via land lines.

Independents are not usually polled in these things.  And Obama's Reagan comments may have been an intentional attempts to steal California independents from McCain.  Reagan is still popular amongst California Indies, which usually makes them more likely to vote GOP, as opposed to the way Indies usually vote Democratic in Virginia.  Obama is counting on getting some of those votes, and I think that while he knew he would piss some people off with the Reagan remark, he also was betting he could get people who had never voted in a Dem Primary before to vote.

The California GOP managed to shoot themselves in the foot by formally excluding the large chunk of the CA electorate who call themselves independents from voting in their primary. The CA Democratic Party primary, on the other hand, welcomes the "decline to state" (party preference) voters. So there's going to be a significant bloc of independent minded CA voters who might have been inclined to vote for Senator McCain in the primary, but can't.  Will Obama get some or most of these votes is an interesting question.

I haven't seen any polls on Virginia.  What is the general mood you are all are feeling in your area?  I would say Charlottesville-Albemarle is leaning Obama's way but it's a college town so I would expect that.  If I had to guess I would think the break down in VA would be that Obama gets Charlottesville-Albemarle, Richmond-Petersburg(excluding suburbs), Tidewater, Southside.  I would guess that Clinton has the Richmond suburbs, the valley, and maybe SW VA.  As for NOVA, I have no clue.  What do you all think?

Around here, this looks like Obama country right now. Every day on my walk to lunch there are Obama volunteers everywhere on the street downtown, handing out literature and lapel stickers. I see probably 3 Obama bumper stickers for every Clinton sticker.

There is a big grassroots Obama presence here, complete with a field office and phone-banking everything. But that's just locals putting it together on their own. Neither campaign has a formal presence yet, so the real war of yard signs and such hasn't totally begun yet.  For all I know, there may be loads of Clinton supporters here who just haven't been organized yet.

Word on the street is that the national Obama campaign is moving into Virginia today.  Any word on where they're setting up shop?

NOVA, Richmond, Tidewater and maybe Charlottesville if they have enough resources.  I agree with Jack.  This area (Charlottesville) definitely seems to favor Obama.

Dan, what's the general feeling you are getting about Blacksburg and SW VA?  

Apparently, this is a very big deal:

http://ruralvotes.com/thefield...

Here is Kos on it:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Obama only down 4 points in Missouri, a place Hillary expected to win easily.

More important to note: He's gaining quickly amonst Hispanics.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Strong surge in Conneticut?  Something to do with Kennedy, perhaps?

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Conversely, Hillary is only leading Obama by 16 points in her home state of New York.  And in that poll, almost half of her supporters admit that they could change their minds.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Pre-Edwards dropping out, Obama has a 2-point lead on Hillary Clinton.

http://www.denverpost.com/news...

In Colorado, it all matters where Edwards people decide to call home.

Obama only down 5 points in Kansas, and Edwards is included.  Like Colorado, it all matters where Edwards supporters decide to go.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Judging from the polls, it appears that Obama is picking up quite a few of Edwards' supporters.  Did the pundants get it wrong again?