With the Feb. 12 Democratic primary in Virginia now on the horizon, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, an early supporter of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, told the News-Press in Richmond last week that he felt Obama, if nominated, "would be well served" by selecting Virginia's junior U.S. Sen. Jim Webb as his running mate.[...]
"I think he should choose someone who is strong in foreign policy and defense issues," he said. He then went on to drop the name of Sen. Webb.
In contrast, the News Press reports, former Gov. Warner says, "I think Sen. Webb has his hands full and is enjoying doing a fantastic job as a U.S. Senator."
I'm not sure exactly what to make of all this, but it's certainly fascinating to see all the speculation about Jim Webb as Barack Obama's running mate. My view is that Barack Obama would definitely benefit from having Jim Webb's national security, military and foreign policy gravitas on the ticket. The big questions are, what does Senator Webb think about all this, and would Barack Obama consider him for his ticket if he wins the nomination? Stay tuned, I guess...
UPDATE: Chris Cillizza has the line on possible VP picks. Tim Kaine's on it, and Jim Webb isn't, all while Tim Kaine is touting Jim Webb! Ha. :)
2) No one seems to want to talk about the other reasons Webb would make sense - his commitment to economic equity. That would make former Edwards supporters far more enthusiastic. And an Obama-Webb ticket would be the realization of Jim's dream of uniting the African-Americans and Scots-Irish into what could be an unbeatable coalition.
And I think were Jim approached with #2 rather than #1, it would make it far harder for him to say no.
2) Exactly. It's Webb's Edwards-style populism, appeal to rural voters and 2md Amendment Democrats that would make him especially valuable to the ticket.
I think that the key to convincing Webb to do it would be taking his own obsession with Andrew Jackson and throwing it right back at him. General Jackson didn't really want to get into politics at first. He only decided to run for President when he was convinced that it was his duty to his country and that it was the only way for him to advance the interests of the people whom he was the most concerned about.
After this past year in the Senate, certainly Webb has noticed how ponderously slow his work is in that setting. As Vice President, he'd be in a position to have an executive portfolio of his own (like Gore and Cheney did) through which to advance his social goals by using both the executive branch and his connections in the Senate (which he would become President of).
However, I don't think the reverse is true. In fact, I don't see how Barack can put Hillary on his ticket without really hurting his message of change from the status quo ante.
Webb and Richardson seem like good fits for Barack's ticket (depending upon if they endorse him when it matters), as do Sebelius or Napolitano.
It'll be an interesting next 12 days.
Both Clinton and Obama lack foreign policy and defense experience. McCain will bludgeon them with that. Either nominee will need to address the vulnerability by choosing a running mate who adds that kind of experience.
What you are suggesting here is not really a dream ticket. It's a convenient thing to suggest in close, bitter fight that has exposed a gulf between factions of the party. But it's not very practical.
Where Obama comes off as Intelligent, Articulate and Thoughtful, a gentlemanly scholar, Webb compliments those virtues (officer & gentleman) and he adds the aura of being a hard ass fighter. Webb is the perfect foil personified to a John McCain.
OBAMA WEBB 08
about 4 years on active duty in the Marine Corps
4 years on House staff for Committee on Veterans Affair
3 years as Assistant Sec Def for Reserve Affairs
about a year as Sec Nav
that means he will have about 13-14 years of public service by the election - That is more than sufficient
Webb was a genius candidate for the Senate specifically because of his LIFETIME of exemplary, heroic, triumphant, and unparalleled public service.
I'm going to refrain from namecalling, but only because it's against the rules here.
2. Strong military record that neutralizes McCain's to some degree. Also, his military background will be needed when the GOP attacks start that withdrawing from Iraq is tantamount to surrender.
3. Webb knows how to rip apart an opponent without seeming nasty. He just comes across as no-nonsense. Again, go watch him take Lindsay Graham apart in their MTP encounter several months ago.
In 1940, the running mate was Henry Wallace (from Iowa), who later formed the Progressive Party. My dad worked on that campaign, and has the pictures to prove it :-).
The first duty of either Clinton or Obama, if they do not want to put the 'loser' on the ticket or if that person turns it down, is to avoid making a choice that would rub salt into the wounds. If Clinton wins, that means a nondescript white male like Evan Bayh or Tom Vilsack, for Obama, it means someone like Jim Webb.
**
Voters don't really care who the Vice Presidential nominee is. Voters will probably not vote against a candidate because of something his Vice President did. Voters will probably also probably not deliver a state for a candidate based on the VP nominee that the Presidential candidate wouldn't have won otherwise--Kerry didn't pick up a single Southern state with Edwards on the ticket.
The two best reasons for picking a nominee, from an electoral standpoint, are party unity (in other words, engaging voters who wouldn't be participating in the election otherwise--some of the more-serious Edwards koolaide drinkers, or Latino swing voters/irregular voters) or helping to build an organization and raise money (something the Clintons have a ton of experience with). Webb doesn't bring anything to the table in either respect. I can understand why Kaine would be interested in seeing a Senate seat open up, but Mark Warner's right, Webb's got his hands full right where he needs to be.
Bush/Cheney
Clinton/Gore*
Reagan/Bush
A candidate with national security experience has more leeway. Former VPs, in particular, are assumed to have developed some competence in that area. The only winning Presidential ticket since the Hoover administration which lacked defense/security experience on either the top or bottom was Carter/Mondale. And, great guy though Jimmy Carter is, his administration is fairly notorious for having screwed up military and foreign policy issues and he lost reelection on that basis.
You've got to have someone on the ticket who really understands the military and foreign policy.
*Gore had served in the army and was on the Armed Services Committee in the Senate. He certainly had more credibility there than Clinton did.
Dick Cheney's idea of his role aside, Vice Presidents aren't supposed to actually do anything, and most voters know this. Scientific surveys have shown that the quality of the Vice Presidential nominee ranks further back than what a candidate's spouse looks like when voters decide who to cast their ballots for. Seriously--the question of a veep's credentials carries less weight for more voters than the question of "blond versus brunette." The only reason to pick someone are political considerations, and that doesn't play to Webb's strengths.
I know it doesn't make sense to people and your gut reaction says otherwise, but your gut is wrong this time around. This is one of those things where the tens of millions of non-blogger voters who will elect our next President don't think like you do.
Jim Webb is an outstanding choice for Obama for many reasons. But mostly is that it's the best choice he could make for a potential Commander in Chief.
He has already resigned once on principle, as SecNav, because the Reagan administration abandoned its goal of increasing the number of ships in the Navy (a cause he still advocates).
Don't get me wrong, I think he's a great senator, and precisely because of his devotion to what he believes. But the vice presidency isn't the best place for that sort of thing.
If our nominee and President eventually strays from the right path, I want Jim Webb there to raise an eyebrow. I don't want another Bush-style echo chamber.
I can't imagine a better way to keep a President honest than for he or she to know that the un-bridleable Jim Webb is watching and will create the most God-awful media shit storm at the slightest hint of corruption or moral failure.
I heartily agree with the proposition that one of the best ways to keep a Pres. honest is for the Pres. to know that "Jim Webb is watching" and is willing to buck his own Pres. if he thinks it is the right thing to do.
And I have no fear about Jim resigning like he resigned from his SECNAV job. He resigned precisely because of his strongly held principles. That job gave him NO ability to influence the Pres. or keep him honest. Resignation was the only way available to him to make his point of principle. As do all cabinet members, he served at the pleasure of the Pres. and felt honor-bound to resign.
By contrast, the VP is elected by the people and is honor-bound to "serve at the peoples' pleasure". Perhaps the most important difference between the two jobs for Jim is that as VP he would have powerful influence over not only the President but also over Congress - and the Pres. could never fire him. I do like the term "honest broker" and whether Jim remains in the Senate or becomes VP he will always be the "peoples' honest broker".
This is so much fun dredging up all the great reasons so many of us worked so long and hard to help put Jim in his Senate seat. It reminds me once again how very proud I am of our soon-to-be senior Senator.
We've got to have a Southerner on the ticket. Both of these guys would be bad choices for either Obama or Clinton.
But Webb, with his appeal to centrists, would to some degree turn off all the starry-eyed, usually oblivious to politics, young naifs currently rallying around Obama.
Debatable at best, mostly unlikely.
Also, Webb's short amount of time in DC argues well for his independence. In fact, Webb campaigned as "unbought", because in his entire life in Washington, he never took money to lobby on behalf of Veterans.
Tim Kaine ran as a nice guy who didn't need to flex his muscles to respond to the Hitler Ad and won handily. Jim Webb's muscle didn't get him 50% of the vote. And Obama has handled everything Hillary's surogates have thrown at him just fine on his own.
Webb's whole story should appeal to those same voters. The guy who was rising to the top in the Reagan administration and one day just gave him the finger and walked out. The guy who punched Oliver North in the face over a hundred times. The guy who went from running the Navy to being a reporter and winning an Emmy, writing best-selling novels, a screenplay, and then beating the most racist politician in the Senate (who was called unbeatable) just because he wants to personally get us the hell out of Iraq.
Nah. Jim Webb won't turn off Obama's base. He compliments it perfectly. Jim Webb stares down the bad guys and will watch Obama's back. They'd make a perfect good cop/bad cop team.
Remember, the powerful story line emerging from Webb's tenure is that he's been remarkably effective as a Senate player. I think he would be sorely tempted by the prospect of entering the Executive while still retaining and expanding his power base in the Senate.
The Senate is run by the majority leader, and stopped dead in its tracks by the minority leader.
And for those who would say, "oh, well, that's Obama's home state so who cares," I'd point out:
*HRC was born in Illinois and grew up there.
*Clinton's lead in New York is 21 points, according to Rasmussen, compared to Obama's 36 point lead in Illinois.
NJ - (1/31, Rasmussen): Clinton 49-Obama 37
MA - (1/31 Survey USA) Clinton 57-Obama 33
GA - (1/31 Survey USA) Obama 51-Clinton 41
GA - (1/31 Insider Advantage) Obama 52-Clinton 36
AL- (1/31 - Ala. Educ. Assoc.) Obama 40-Clinton 35
MN - (1/31 - Univ. of MN) Clinton 40, Obama 33, Edwards 12 (BTW, the UofM poll also shows both Clinton and Obama beating McCain in the general)
That all said, in polls trends are more significant that any one poll, and since S.C. the trends have clearly favored Obama. It will be interesting to see whether last night's civil debate slowed that down.
Anyway, although I am a big Webb supporter I think it unlikely he'll be short-listed.
Instead, either Obama or Hillary are likely to be looking for someone whose experience they can use to prop up their candidacy. Neither Obama nor Hillary has much executive experience, but Warner is a highly successful businessman and was a very successful governor of a Southern state. Shouldn't that attract either Obama or Hillary to his potential as a running mate?
Webb's approval ratings, according to the last poll that Lowell posted is still under 50% in VA. And among hispanic voters, a crucial block in AZ, NM, NV, etc., Webb's disaproval ratings were around 75%. I'm not sure Webb would be the best choice.
Tim Kaine will travel to Georgia on Saturday making three public campaign appearances across Georgia. In advance of the Georgia Democratic Primary and "Super Tuesday", Governor Kaine will make stops in Savannah, and Columbus, GA.
The toughest job is EXECUTIVE OFFICER because you have to rein in your leadership style and adopt the style of the commander, like it or not, and the VP is kind of an executive officer without as much authority as the military XO has.
I don't see Webb agreeing to do watered down XO duty to someone many years his junior and without any military background. He is becoming increasingly powerful in the Senate and that is where he can act with the authority of a commander and still keep his job if the political leaders disagree with him.
Maybe Wes Clark for VP (he has islamist problem experience)and Jim Webb climbing toward majority leader is the ideal solution.