Crossposted with permission from davefromqueens
It appears more and more likely that out of the mainstream, Keating Five, flip flopping, Washington Insider, agree with George W Bush 95% of the time John McCain is going to be the Republican nominee for President. And while I think Hillary Clinton would defeat him, I think Obama would crush him in a landslide. Here's why.
1. The Issues
While John McCain has a few areas of agreement with mainstream America (against torture, recognizes global warming, campaign finance reform), McCain's voting record of anti-middle class economic policies, opposition to civil liberties, supporting Federalist Society justices, and a Halliburton/Blackwater/Chevron/Saudi Arabia based foreign policy is completely out of touch with 70% of America. On the other hand, Barack Obama's message of pro middle class economics, a pro military security based foreign policy, and protecting our Constitution is in tune with core American values.
2. Image
This is a change election. We need a President who is the anti-Bush. McCain's policies, on 90-95% of the issues, would simply be a continuation of the failed conservative policies of the Bush administration. Obama would reverse course. Now think of how these dynamics would play out in November. Obama comes across as optimistic while McCain comes across as a pessimist. Obama symbolizes the future while McCain is the symbol of the failed Washington ways of the past. Obama evokes hope, McCain evokes images of nastiness and meanness.
3. Obama is moderate, McCain is not.
The biggest myth about John McCain is that he somehow is a moderate because 5-10% of his positions are moderate. Even John McCain admitted last night that he is a conservative. On this, John McCain is telling the truth. It's time moderates and independents BELIEVE him when McCAin says he's a conservative. McCain has been endorsed by the likes of Phil Grammm and Jack Kemp. If Gramm and Kemp are moderates, then I am better looking than Robert Redford and Brad Pitt.
4. Obama will bring 20-30 million new voters into the fold.
Half of America hasn't voted in most prior elections. I'm willing to bet that 90% of these people are progressive to liberal. They haven't voted in the past because they've felt that the Democratic Party has simply been the lesser of two evils or a watered down version of Republican Lite. These voters are OUR voters and if we can give these people something to vote FOR, they will come out in droves. If we can keep them coming out in droves and sever all relations with DLC types, then we will be a 70% governing party.
Obama inspires these previous non voters to get to the polls. And if they show up, it's Obama in a landslide.
5. The Republican Base wants McCain to Lose
At first this statement seems ludicrous and counterintuitive until you think about it more deeply. Looking beyond the hatred that some Republicans have for McCain, movement conservatives feel that if McCain is the nominee and wins, then conservatism will die out quicker. They feel that if conservatives (As these wingnuts define it) can't nominate one of their own for the Republican Party, then it would be bad long term for that nominee to win in the short run. Instead these conservatives would prefer to stay home and simply see McCain lose so they can then claim in 2009 and beyond that the reason why McCain lose was because he wasn't a true conservative. Thus, in their minds, they would keep alive the faulty argument that conservatism wins elections. Some of these would even vote for Obama just for this reason.
6. The Flip Flops
All that a Democrat has to do is play video clips of John McCain saying one thing and then John McCain saying the exact opposite. The American public, especially moderate voters, do not like someone who votes based on which way the wind is blowing. This image of McCain as the flip flopper has the potential to crush him in November.
Contrast that to Obama who projects genuineness and clarity.
7. McCain = Bush
Granted there are a couple of exceptions but 95% of McCain's agenda is Bush's agenda and McCain has surrounded himself with uberconservatives like Phil Gramm and Jack Kemp among others. McCAin would continue Bush's failed economic policies and would be every bit the warmonger Bush is. McCain sung a song called Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran and advocates America's presence in Iraq for 100 years. By simply playing clips of these McCain quotes, McCain's numbers in the polls would freefall.
So there you have it.
...in the past two weeks, there has been a remarkable shift of establishment opinion against [Hillary Clinton] and against the prospect of placing the party's 2008 chances in the hands of her husband, Bill Clinton.The prominence of his role in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the mean-spiritedness of his attacks on Obama, stunned many Democrats. Clinton's behavior underlined the warning raised in this column before Iowa, by a prominent veteran of the Clinton administration, that the prospect of two presidents both named Clinton sharing a single White House would be a huge problem for the Democrats in November if Hillary Clinton is the nominee.
The Clintons' negatives have brought much support to Obama, most notably that of Ted Kennedy, the most prestigious figure in the Democratic establishment in Washington. But it is also Obama's own appeal that is being talked about across the country, from Massachusetts to Arizona, by the younger generation of governors, senators and representatives who share with him an eagerness to "turn the page" on the battles of the past.
Obama is not inevitable, but the longer the race continues, the greater that hunger will be. And the growing recognition of McCain's appeal to independents also works in Obama's favor.
Mission Accomplished!
John McSAME.
Thanks!
Steve
But assuming Senator Obama gets the nomination his first major decision will make all of the difference in the general election. That decision of course is his pick for Vice President. Most folks know little else about candidates, but they always know and gauge the potential president by their VP pick.
Should Hillary win she would be best served by running with Wes Clark (endorsed her early on).
But given Obama's rise, his grassroots connection, his potential for turning the political page, etc. there really is only one choice that would best compliment his candidacy ..... drum roll please:
That VP candidate would be, JIM WEBB!! .... but we knew that already, didn't we.
Half of America hasn't voted in most prior elections. I'm willing to bet that 90% of these people are progressive to liberal.
How do we know this? Is it possible that they are just apolitical - more concerned with Hollywood trivia and sports than anything else?
Thereafter, they could take the glass away, and the fish would swim all around the barracuda, but he wouldn't eat. Eventually the barracuda died.
Party of why the netroots has been so important is that it has given voice to those of us who have beaten our heads against plate glass walls for so long. Webb's victory was a powerful psychological victory for us, and if there ever was a call to action, a promise that victory is possible for progressive politics it's simply stated in three words:
YES! WE CAN!
Shout it from the mountaintops!
Obama will win California, Washington (barely), Minnesota, Wisconsin (barely), Illinios, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts (barely), New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and DC...
I see Oregon, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania as toss ups...
And McCain wins everywhere else...
McCain 290
Obama 201
Toss Up 58...
Most, if not all, of the polls I have seen of national preferences in a McCain-Obama race show McCain ahead by five points or more. Do you really believe that the Republicans will be sitting on their hands while the Democrats execute the strategies that you propose?
On the point that the Republican base wants McCain to lose: would your logic work if Clinton was the Democratic nominee? A lot of the Democratic base (including more than a few regulars here) are furious with Billary right now. Would the Democratic base stay home and not vote or even vote for McCain just to see Clinton lose? I don't think so and I doubt if the Republicans would do the same thing to McCain.
One person, somewhere?