More Obama momentum: closing in key states

By: Rob
Published On: 1/30/2008 11:51:59 PM

Lowell posted earlier about Senator Obama's momentum.  Here's some more evidence.  First, from Massachusetts:

A new Rasmussen poll in Massachusetts shows that Hillary Clinton is now barely ahead of Barack Obama, in the wake of the Ted Kennedy endorsement. Hillary leads with 43%, followed by Obama at 37% and the now-departed John Edwards with 11%.

Rasmussen did not have a previous poll of the Massachusetts primary. However, a SurveyUSA poll from last week, before Obama's political adoption by the Kennedy family, had Hillary ahead by a whopping 37 points. It looks like Massachusetts is officially a race now.

And now, in Hillary's home state:

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%.... Bear in mind that all Democratic primaries use a form of proportional representation - so Obama could walk away with a decent chunk of delegates if he simply posts a respectable showing for an out-of-state challenger.

Getting a large slice of New York delegates would be a large victory for Obama, both in terms of symbolism and delegate strength.  

So add these data points to the recent polls from Connecticut, as well as California and national tracking numbers.  More evidence of the Obama mo!

(UPDATE:  Rasmussen poll confirms California momentum!  Clinton 43% Obama 40%)

Comments



Rasmussen's latest California numbers . . . (JPTERP - 1/31/2008 12:37:02 AM)
Clinton 43%
Obama 40%
Edwards 9%

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Not clear from the totals if these include absentee votes, but this is a significant close in a matter of just a few days.  I'll be curious to see what the impact of Edwards announcement is -- and whether these votes hold up over the next few days.  Still a pretty incredible close in a race that had Clinton up by double-digits last week.  



I would add . . . (JPTERP - 1/31/2008 12:39:04 AM)
it looks like the previous Rasmussen poll only had a 5% point Clinton lead, but it looks like the late deciders have been breaking slightly in Obama's direction.


Fits the trend (uva08 - 1/31/2008 12:55:47 AM)
The CA poll seems to fit the trend that was picked up in the poll the San Francisco Chronicle commented on.  


Thanks -- added this to the diary. (Rob - 1/31/2008 12:57:30 AM)


Early voting at 500k (sndeak - 1/31/2008 1:16:26 AM)
This will lean heavily towards HRC since she was the name candidate for so long. Trends are showing that if Obama can get to a state in person before voting starts he makes serious in-roads in the states Clinton has had high double digit leads in.


Not counted unless it is close (Hugo Estrada - 1/31/2008 8:38:50 AM)
the dangers of early voting.


Some states (sndeak - 1/31/2008 12:45:00 PM)
Do not count the absentee ballots, others do. I would think that in states that are encouraging mail in and early voting they would have to tally them on election day.  


Don't they take early voters into consideration (uva08 - 1/31/2008 12:09:10 PM)
when they compiling these results?  If you look at the Florida polls and the Florida results they seem to match up pretty well.  Clinton led by a huge margin in early voting there as well but the results in the end came out very similar to the polls.  Does anyone know?  Are polling firms asking "who are you voting for or have you voted for?" or are they just asking voters who they will vote for and not dealing with early voters?


I am dreading Super Tuesday (Dan - 1/31/2008 11:58:28 AM)
I really want Obama.  I have talked to a lot of moderates who say they will vote Obama if he runs, and McCain if Hillary runs.


Obama has huge lead in Georgia (Lowell - 1/31/2008 6:05:31 PM)
See here:

John McCain and Barack Obama have solid leads in a poll released this afternoon of Georgia primary voters.

With 35 percent, McCain leads in the Republican primary by 11 points over Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney who are tied at 24 percent. Ron Paul comes in a distant third with 5 percent.

On the Democratic side, Obama, with 52 percent, has a 16-point lead over Hillary Clinton.