Presidential Poll: Who Are You Supporting Now?

By: Lowell
Published On: 1/30/2008 4:14:31 PM

As of 6:30 pm on Wednesday, 28 Edwards supporters have voted -- 22 now support Obama, 3 still support Edwards, 2 don't know, and 1 supports Clinton.

As of 9:00 pm, 39 Edwards supporters have voted -- 29 now support Obama, 4 still support Edwards, 3 don't know, and 3 support Clinton. Overall, 116 people have voted, with 86 supporting Obama and 14 supporting Clinton.

As of 6:00 am Thursday, 55 Edwards supporters have voted -- 41 now support Obama, 8 still support Edwards, 3 don't know, and 3 support Clinton.

As of 1:30 pm Thursday, out of 158 total votes cast, 130 are for Obama (82%), 16 for Clinton (10%), 8 for Edwards (5%), and 4 don't know (2.5%).


Comments



Good poll (True Blue - 1/30/2008 4:30:21 PM)
Captures all the options.


Well, I thought about adding (Lowell - 1/30/2008 4:31:08 PM)
"None of the above" or "other," but I thought we had enough there. :)


How about (Newport News Dem - 1/31/2008 7:45:37 PM)
Undecided then and undecided now. That sums up me.


Well, it doesn't capture my option, or its opposite for that matter (Different Drum - 2/1/2008 3:12:50 AM)
I've been generally neutral up until a month or so ago.  My option would be "was neutral, now Obama."  And I think the contra must be true for many as well.  In any case, I'll be proud to vote for the Democratic candidate in November - period.


Cool (mmc0412 - 1/30/2008 5:08:43 PM)
Looks like a lot of Obama-ites in VA.  Well, I know it's only 41 votes so far.  But, as Obama says, I can hope!


Gotta go with Obama. (Imaliberal - 1/30/2008 5:36:58 PM)
Obama, like Howard Dean before him, is somewhere right of me on the political spectrum.  But, like Dean, it had more to do with what kind of a leader he is.  We hope to elect someone who is honest and smart enough to handle the situations that arise.  And, in Obama's case, who would shake it up in DC in a really good way.  I believe he would preserve the DNC 50 state strategy -- something I am certain Hillary and her people would immediately dissolve if she won.  I'm not in love with Obama (like I was with Dean) but I really think he could be great.

I am tired of the fighting.  Senators of both parties used to eat/drink/talk together.  Now they hate each other.  We barely  pass anything because nobody crosses over to compromise anymore (except us).  I don't want to compromise on our values at all.  I just want someone who can show the other side why our ideas are the best.  Why NCSB sucks.  Why we need to exit Iraq now., etc.  Who can say it better?  I think Obama would do well at this.  Most Republicans are tired of this too.  Most of them have had it with Bush and the current GOP.   Most of them are like those old John Danforth type GOPs -- who all retired after the Gingrich revolution.

I don't want GOP-lite and I don't think that is what he is.  He has ALWAYS been against the war.  He never took the huge salary he could have earned after his law degree from Harvard.  He went right into community service.  

Hillary is a DLC Dem who is and has always been against the grass roots.  She is that old style -- spend all your money on big media buys --type politician.  Kerry all over again -- but worse.  Because I actually believed Kerry -- I think he was boring but mostly honest.  She is a weather-vane to public opinion.  I really don't get the appeal to anyone except those that feel they have waited long enough for a woman.  For me, the bad weighs more than the good.  I would really have a hard time voting for her in Nov -- but I will if I have to.



PS: I was for Edwards -- but barely. Didn't love him either. (Imaliberal - 1/30/2008 5:38:13 PM)


Nice comments, but (aznew - 1/30/2008 5:59:51 PM)
just a few points, for whatever they are worth:

1. I hear what you are saying about Hillary, but Obama puts his finger to the wind plenty -- all politicians do. To be honest, I don't really know why this gets such a bad rap everyplace. I mean, in a Democracy, reflecting what you believe to be the will of the people -- even if you do so for a selfish reason -- is not necessarily a bad thing.

2.  You are kidding yourself if you think most Republicans want to see cooperation. I'm sure you've been paying attention to what has been going on in the Senate.  For the average Republican, bipartisanship means doing it their way. I'll believe you if GOP voters throw their obstructionist Senators out and give the Democrats a 60-vote majority.

3. Just for the record, one reason why it seems like there is more partisanship today is because the parties are more divided along ideological lines, with liberals gravitating toward Democrats and conservatives toward republicans. This realignment began in 1960 or so. Then, there were very conservative Democrats and liberal republicans, like Javitz and Wieker. There were plenty of disagreements, but they didn;t always break down along party lines.

4. I don't know much about Obama's biography, but I did read recently that he has a net worth somewhere north of $1 million. I don't know where he made his money, but it wasn't community service.

5. I appreciate your willingness to vote for Clinton should she be the nominee. The most essential thing is to defeat the Republicans in November.



. (FINKS - 1/30/2008 7:19:43 PM)
I would assume that 1 million would have come from his two successful books. Compared to the other  candidates his net worth seems quaint.

Mitt and Ann Romney $202 million
John and Elizabeth Edwards $54.7 million
Rudy Giuliani $52.2 million
John and Cindy McCain $40.4 million
Hillary and Bill Clinton $34.9 million
Fred Thompson $8.1 million
Barack and Michelle Obama $1.3 million



Doesn't sound (spotter - 1/30/2008 7:31:28 PM)
like the Clintons made their money on community service, either.


Well, for the record (aznew - 1/30/2008 7:48:56 PM)
I am pretty sure that when Clinton left the White House, he was broke, although he has made up for it since then.

But more to the point, neither the Clinton's nor any other candidate is pushing the hagiography of selfless community servant who has never done anything for himself, even though he could have.



it's supposed to be more like $ 50+ million for the Clintons (j_wyatt - 1/30/2008 7:52:40 PM)
And what's the source of that after all these years of public service?  Apparently, disclosure of their 'investments' is going to be a major problem for Clinton, Inc.

The same with McCain's fortune -- source?



Well, here's a partial answer (spotter - 1/31/2008 6:49:32 PM)
as to the source of the funds for Bill Clinton's charitable foundation.  Keep digging, guys.  It's all out there.


Two Best Selling Books (Lee Diamond - 1/30/2008 8:42:29 PM)
Do you live in the US?  Read the newspaper?  I think you know better than to make some of the statements you've been making.

Dreams From My Father is, by literary standards, a superb book.  The guy is extraordinary.  He wrote a book that deserves to be read.  He has been rewarded with a lot of sales.  I gave the book to my mom as a gift.



A net worth of $1 million in NOVA (Lowell - 1/30/2008 7:33:01 PM)
means a house and some retirement savings.


Declining rapidly, for many, unfortunately (aznew - 1/30/2008 7:50:08 PM)


Yeah, good point. (Lowell - 1/30/2008 7:51:38 PM)
n/t


He only paid $650k for his house (relawson - 1/30/2008 9:17:51 PM)
He's in the poor house when compared to his counterparts.  


Re #2: I don't think the current GOP office holders want cooperation (Imaliberal - 1/30/2008 10:33:34 PM)
...but I do think that most voters that ID themselves as Repubs do.  That stubborn and stupid 30% that continues to support the administration is beyond hope.


Hillary My Choice (ao - 1/31/2008 6:29:52 PM)
Well said. Let us not forget that Hillary is her own woman. She has vision with the added advantage of experience. Have a read "Kennedy's for Clinton" LA Times.

Peace  



Alright - looks like I'm on Team Obama now (relawson - 1/30/2008 6:29:58 PM)
Most people here are going Edwards to Obama based on that poll.  I wonder how many nationwide are going to Hillary vs Obama...


Welcome aboard (DanG - 1/30/2008 7:32:41 PM)
Glad to have ya!


Here's today's Daily Kos poll (Lowell - 1/30/2008 7:58:51 PM)

It looks like Obama is winning almost all Edwards supporters in the netroots.  In comparison to this poll, last week it was Edwards 42%, Obama 41%, and Clinton 9%.  So...from last week to today, Clinton picked up 2 percentage points from Edwards supporters, but Obama picked up 34 percentage points (!!).  Amazing.  And we appear to be seeing the same trend here on RK.



But as you noted elsewhere, Lowell (aznew - 1/30/2008 8:18:31 PM)
the netroots tend to be more "anyone But Hillary" than the population at large, not to mention the anger that has been directed at her over the past 10 days.

Given all the pro-Obama/Anti-Hillary rhetoric in the Internets over the last 10 days, perhaps it's a valid question to ask why ALL of Edwards' vote didn't go to Obama.

I'll say this: Obama sees that when he and Hillary get into the muck, he is teflon coated (no wonder he loves Ronald Reagan!). He was trying to goad her, or perhaps trying to goad Bill or both of them, with a few jabs in his Denver speech today.

Any kind of critical discussion of Obama's record or his campaign is quite difficult in the current atmosphere.  



Well, teflon's not a bad thing to have (Lowell - 1/30/2008 8:20:40 PM)
if you're a politician and hence in the "muck." :)


No, it's not (aznew - 1/30/2008 8:24:37 PM)
and Obama is working it, which is the absolutely correct thing to do.

I suspect it is driving Bill and Hillary nuts.



Daily Kos poll (Different Drum - 2/1/2008 3:29:49 AM)
I would think one way to stave off the "Nader Challenge" such as it might actually exist (it doesn't, but...) would be to support Obama.  It seems to me it cuts Ralphie's legs out from under him, while he at least has some (tiny-minor) argument that there are no differences between Hills and Johnny Mac.


Edwards (Johnny Longtorso - 1/30/2008 8:08:26 PM)
But I'm not voting in the primary. I don't trust Hillary, and I can't support Obama because he doesn't support universal health care, which is a dealbreaker for me.

And before anyone yells at me, I'll vote for the winner in November. I'm just not happy with the choices now.



Obama doesn't support universal healthcare (Hugo Estrada - 1/30/2008 8:18:48 PM)
Is that true?


No, it's not true. (Lowell - 1/30/2008 8:27:40 PM)
Here's Obama's "Plan for a Healthy America."

We now face an opportunity - and an obligation - to turn the page on the failed politics of yesterday's health care debates... My plan begins by covering every American. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change for you under this plan is the amount of money you will spend on premiums. That will be less. If you are one of the 45 million Americans who don't have health insurance, you will have it after this plan becomes law. No one will be turned away because of a preexisting condition or illness.

Also, check this out:

Obama's Plan to Cover Uninsured Americans: Obama will make available a new national health plan to all Americans, including the self-employed and small businesses, to buy affordable health coverage that is similar to the plan available to members of Congress. The Obama plan will have the following features:

  1. Guaranteed eligibility. No American will be turned away from any insurance plan because of illness or pre-existing conditions.
  2. Comprehensive benefits. The benefit package will be similar to that offered through Federal Employees Health Benefits Program (FEHBP), the plan members of Congress have. The plan will cover all essential medical services, including preventive, maternity and mental health care.
  3. Affordable premiums, co-pays and deductibles.
  4. Subsidies. Individuals and families who do not qualify for Medicaid or SCHIP but still need financial assistance will receive an income-related federal subsidy to buy into the new public plan or purchase a private health care plan.
  5. Simplified paperwork and reined in health costs.
  6. Easy enrollment. The new public plan will be simple to enroll in and provide ready access to coverage.
  7. Portability and choice. Participants in the new public plan and the National Health Insurance Exchange (see below) will be able to move from job to job without changing or jeopardizing their health care coverage.
  8. Quality and efficiency. Participating insurance companies in the new public program will be required to report data to ensure that standards for quality, health information technology and administration are being met.

No, the only issue is that Obama OFFERS coverage at affordable prices, but he doesn't MANDATE coverage for all Americans.  In other words, Obama has a different approach than Hillary Clinton to achieve the same objective - providing every single American with access to quality health care that can't be denied or taken away.  Sounds pretty "universal" to me! :)



Mandates in health care (aznew - 1/30/2008 8:40:57 PM)
The lack of mandates is not a trivial issue. There are questions whether any health plan can work without mandates, because when given the choice, healthy people tend not to use their money to pay for insurance. And without healthy people participating, no insurance plan will work.

Obama contends, however, that his plan will make health insurance so attractive and affordable, most people will participate. I have no idea if this is the case or not.



The question is... (Lowell - 1/30/2008 8:44:53 PM)
...if the health care is affordable and attractive, and if an adult decides for whatever reason that they don't WANT to participate, should the government force them to do so?   You're right, it's not a "trivial issue," but a serious matter for debate.  Personally, I can see both sides of it, but probably lean in the direction of Obama based on the Massachusetts health care experience (I have a relative there who has not had a good experience with the "mandate" aspect).


That's not true... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 1/31/2008 2:08:46 AM)
Anyone with half a brain understands that health issues can arise at ANY TIME and can result from a myriad of different life events.

Surgery could be necessary.

The idea that the 45 million uninsured do not WANT it is absurd.  Maybe a few hundred thousand who are absolutely incapable of rational thought don't want to pay....but most people do not feel this way, I'm sure.

How many people without insurance do you know who don't want to carry it because they're healthy?  It's absurd.  I'd be willing to wager that 95% of healthy people will want affordable insurance.



Just want to add... (aznew - 1/30/2008 8:42:56 PM)
Whether you want to call it universal or not, Obama's plan is light years better than the mess we have now, or any proposal coming from the GOP.


Thanks for adding that. (Lowell - 1/30/2008 8:47:22 PM)
I was going to say the same thing -- any Democrat is a gazillion times better than any Republican on health care.  They think the HMO's, for-profit health care, and Big Pharma are the answer to everything.  Democrats believe that the goal of heatlh care is...wait for it...to help people be healthy!  I know, what a concept.  Also, Republicans apparently believe that the only people who should get high-quality health care are those who can afford it.  Democrats believe that high-quality health care is a fundamental human right.  Again, what a concept!


The BIG concern I have with both Clinton's & Obama's plan is borrowing to pay for them. (Tom Counts - 1/31/2008 9:30:21 AM)
Neither candidate has said anything of substance about how they would pay for their Health Care plan whether it's "manadatory" or not. I think the choices are: Raise taxes, cut other programs from the budget or use Bush's "no limit" credit card he will leave for the next President. We all know how much debt that Bush credit card has accrued and who will pay the trillion dollar unpaid balance he's leaving for present and future generations.

So far as I can tell at this point no one in Congress, regardless of party, has the political or even moral "courage" to even whisper responsible financial policy - i.e., raise taxes enough to actually pay for what they are promising - and I haven't seen anything of substance yet from any Pres. candidate addressing how any campaign promises will be funded.

I could be wrong about neither candidate having any "how I will pay for my promises" information in their Health Care "plans". Maybe I've missed something in their "plans". Note that I put "plans" in quotes for the obvious reason that a plan with no financial section is not a plan. In other words, they are all saying "Trust me on this. I'll start developing an actual plan sometime after I'm sworn in".

If I had submitted even a rough draft project plan to my Admiral that was missing the financial section he would have thrown me out of his office and told my supervisor to give me an "Unsatisfactory" performance rating. I think this might be a good concept to apply to the candidates: Give us a real draft plan or we rate your performance "Unsatisfactory". At least Edwards was honest enough and had the courage to say more than once that higher taxes would be necessary to pay for implementaion of his plan. Maybe that's one reason so few people voted for Edwards - they all expect something for nothing.

Sorry for the excessively lengthy comments. I get very pashionate and feel compelled to say these things when politicians ignore their fiscal responsibilities and promise more than they can deliver.

Your responses will be greatly appreciated.

                       T.C.



Obama Supports Universal Health Care (Lee Diamond - 1/30/2008 8:48:56 PM)
Hugo,

Obama does support universal health care.  He just doesn't support forcing people to buy coverage, at least not at this point.  He wants to cover the people who want it and need it.  I assume that once we accomplish that, he'll get to the currently healthy people who are not willing to pay for it.



I'm pretty bummed out (VA Breeze - 1/30/2008 11:01:14 PM)
probably will still vote for Edwards in the primary



I will have something to say tomorrow (teacherken - 1/30/2008 9:48:55 PM)
stay tuned


Obama staffers arrive in Virginia (Lowell - 1/30/2008 10:39:30 PM)
Read all about it here.


I remember Stacey (Ingrid - 1/30/2008 11:13:20 PM)
from Tim Kaine's campaign in '05.  This is exciting; these are good people!


New Poll (uva08 - 1/30/2008 11:14:22 PM)
There is a new poll out from Rasmussen in Mass.  It has the race at 43 Clinton, 37 Obama, 11 Edwards.  Some things that are interesting about the poll are unfavorable/favorable ratings Edwards supporters give Clinton and Obama.  Seventy-eight percent of Edwards' supporters have a favorable opinion of Obama.  The number for Clinton is 58 percent favorable.  Another interesting note is how much closer this race is compared to a week or so ago when SurveyUSA did a poll there (assuming, of course, that you can compare the two polls).

This poll just adds to the confusion.  I have heard news reports that 40 percent of Edwards' supporters say that Clinton was their second choice with only 25 percent saying the same about Obama.  I suppose we will know soon enough when a round of polling comes out.



I think a lot of it has to do with geography (Catzmaw - 1/30/2008 11:23:11 PM)
Last night I spoke to my sister who was coming out of voting for Hillary in Florida.  I told her I'd been for Edwards, but since it looked like he was going to bail I would be opting instead for Obama.  She was truly shocked, and told me that a number of people she knew had told her they were for Edwards but would vote for Hillary if Edwards withdrew; moreover, many people have told her that if Obama gets the nomination then they are either going to stay home or vote for McCain if he's the Repub candidate (which I think he will be).  Around here it's pretty clear that with Edwards gone most of his supporters are going to end up with Obama.  So maybe it's a function of geography.  Who knows?


What part of Florida? (AnonymousIsAWoman - 1/31/2008 5:40:58 PM)
It's such a diverse state that knowing what part your sister is from would tell me a lot about why the people were going from Edwards to Clinton rather than Obama.


That's why strategically (relawson - 1/30/2008 11:46:17 PM)
I thought it made sense for Edwards to stay in.  He could campaign in states where he draws Hillary votes and not show up in states where he draws Obama votes.

Oh well.  I think he was in it to win it, not play politics.  He had a prime opportunity to play politics (king maker) yet he chose not to.  I think that says something about his character.



I don't understand what would point an Edwards supporter to Hillary (Imaliberal - 1/30/2008 11:43:20 PM)
But this is clearly happening.  I really think the Hillary camp has done some seriously nasty stuff.  I don't know how much knowledge - if any - Hillary had of it, but it definitely says something about the people they surround themselves with.  Sleezy stuff in Nevada and SC -- ugly robo-calls, and serious voting irregularities during the Nevada caucus.  And that is not even touching on Bill's impromptu remarks.  These are just not my people.  I just can't imagine what Edwards' supporters have in common with them.

Can someone fill me in?



political blogosphere and the rest of American (relawson - 1/30/2008 11:49:24 PM)
May not jive.  

There are many more people out there who this is just a popularity contest for.  Not everyone actually thinks about the issues or what the candidates stand for.

My first litmus test - follow the money.  Second, I look at issues and equally character.  That is why I am attracted to both Edwards and Obama.  That sounded gay ;-)



Well, there's nothing wrong with real gay attraction.... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 1/31/2008 2:12:16 AM)
I hope you're not gettin' all homophobic on us!  ;-)


I knew someone would pick that up ;-) (relawson - 1/31/2008 9:59:07 AM)
Don't go Dr. Phil on me!


Lot's of reasons... (TurnPWBlue - 1/31/2008 5:11:01 PM)
They could be like my wife who really wants to see a woman in the White House (even when my response is "But this woman?").   They could be like my nephew who thinks the Clintons have taken so much crap over the last 16 years, it's about time they dished some back (never mind the fact that the target of the ire is all wrong).  They could have latent race issues and just can't see voting for someone with a little color to his skin.  They could be like the fool blogger I read this morning that said he couldn't vote for someone with a Muslim sounding name.

People who read RK/DK or really any of the blogs aren't yet your mainstream voters.  They are people who really believed we saw Hillary's soft side when she teared up in NH.  They are the ones who remember with fondness the days of Bill Clinton.  They are the folks who haven't been watching the underhanded tactics or they are the ones who think all politics is dirty, so they are nonplussed by such behavior in their own favorites.



I was all over the place this election cycle (Will Write For Food - 1/31/2008 5:57:57 AM)
I was Warner then Clark then briefly Richardson then Biden then Edwards now Obama. Is it Election Day yet?!


NH an anomaly (Bernie Quigley - 1/31/2008 7:32:46 AM)
It is being suggested here in New Hampshire that Independent voters, who can vote in either primary, switched from Obama to McCain after Iowa when Obama was declared big winner there. It accounts for the variation in Zogby polls on Obama and McCain and sounds like something Independent voters in NH would do. That would suggest Obama is soaring.


If you want your voice to be really be heard (Scott Surovell - 1/31/2008 10:20:42 AM)
Come vote in this straw poll - The only Presidential Straw Poll in Northern Virginia.



So Hillary is getting about 11% over all... (SaveElmer - 1/31/2008 12:02:22 PM)
So 11% of the RaisingKaine community is for Hillary...yet I see 11 front page stories here either praising Obama or bashing Hillary...and not one pro-Hillary...

Hillary should rate one positive story don't ya think? If this is a community blog...



Well written diaries (relawson - 1/31/2008 12:15:10 PM)
Get promoted from what I have seen.  Plenty of Edwards stories got promoted.

If you write a good diary, with images, spell check, back up with facts and something worthy of publication - and still don't get featured maybe you have a legitimate complaint.  



I've seen many well written pro-Hillary diaries here... (SaveElmer - 1/31/2008 12:18:04 PM)
Certainly as well written as any on the front page now...many of which simply consist of cut and pasting from media sites...


You're not on the front page (DanG - 1/31/2008 12:56:38 PM)
Cause your a negative Nancy.

Just kiddin'. ;-P



Yeah... (Johnny Longtorso - 1/31/2008 8:36:01 PM)
I'm really sick of how the liberal blogosphere has become an Obama echo chamber.


So, if we honestly support someone (Lowell - 1/31/2008 8:48:13 PM)
then we're an "echo chamber."  I guess we should oppose everyone just to avoid that heinous fate.  Ha.


I thought this blog was about Virginia politics (Johnny Longtorso - 1/31/2008 11:05:11 PM)
I don't see how the pro-Obama posts, which have taken up about 90% of this blog, relate to that subject. Maybe it's just me.


Last time I checked (Lowell - 1/31/2008 11:07:41 PM)
Virginia was part of the United States.  


An Interesting Read from the Daily Progress (uva08 - 1/31/2008 1:12:03 PM)
The C-ville Daily Progress has an interesting story about who supports who in the Virginia GA.  Here is the linke: http://dailyprogress.com/servl...


Obama (JohnBruhns - 1/31/2008 6:09:45 PM)
I'm now 150% behind Barack Obama  


Any way you can increase that (Lowell - 1/31/2008 6:22:36 PM)
to 175% or 200%?  C'mon, man, just a few more days to go, you can do it! :)


If he gets to 200, can he vote twice? (aznew - 1/31/2008 6:25:25 PM)


Dear aznew (JohnBruhns - 1/31/2008 6:33:54 PM)
That would be nice :-)

Obama Obama Obama !!!



LOL (JohnBruhns - 1/31/2008 6:33:00 PM)
Lowell,

I wish my friend -- I am with Obama , the next POTUS !!! :-)