Rasmussen and Mason Dixon are much more reliable.  More reliable still is the RCP rolling average, which basically has this thing tied up.

c'mon Mitt!!!

will push McCain over the top in Florida.

and does that mean he does not take into account the early voting, where (a) Giuliani would have done better than he is now doing (b) those votes are more likely to have gone to McCain then Romney

also, McCain does not have strong support n the Cuban-American community, and Romney does

I would agree that were McCain to win, since it is winner take all, that would give him a huge leg up.  It actually would also damage him, because then Romney would go completely negative on him in the next week, which would damage him for the general.

I'm not convinced that Florida will entirely clinch it for McCain if he wins, but if Super Duper Tuesday shakes out the way that Zogby is suggesting, then I think McCain will likely lock it up.

A McCain/Huckabee ticket?  That would be a good way of reuniting the Republican base going into the general election. Of course, I have no idea what McCain's opinion of Huckabee is. But then Reagan picked Bush Sr. as a running mate for similar reasons even though they'd never had much to do with each other and were politically distant in many ways.

I would think that Guiliani's exit would tend to help McCain somewhat. Both are candidates who have pissed off the GOP base over their stances on fundamental issues. Any Republican who was ok with Giuliani having a liberal record on many social issues won't have a problem with John McCain's history of bucking the party line.

I'm convinced his whole Florida "campaign strategy" was just a way for contributors to fund his vacation.

you gotta love the experts or so-called pundits who for the most part remind me trips to Vegas and are no more than political bookies as they attempt to move votes into one camp or away from another just like bookies do when they want to narrow the line on any given game. Its like the KY Derby where just about every commentator picks a different horse to hedge the bet on the telecast so they can then extend the commentary afterward.Maybe we should have the HBO NFL guys do a spin in politics.
I love these pollsters. They do a poll contacting say five hundred people and parlay that into a cross section and sell it as such regarding the view of a population of like two million, ala New Hampshire. Then they act somewhat flabergasted when they get it wrong. All wrong.
The current one is how McCain has always been a favorite of the independents and has that locked up. Please. Out of the dozens of folks, mostly independent, I get emails from and talk to here in Virginia, there is little support for McCain it seems which is contrary to what is being talked about in the media.
In Virginia his best bet may be those in NVA but much of that depends on if he is the nominee who he would be going against. He is better suited to take on Clinton and Romney better suited against Obama. McCain is exactly the kind of change Obamas movement is meant for, just like the battle with Clinton currently being waged frankly, where as against Romney his change message may not flow as well given Romney is touting an "economic" change message these days as well and that change message could get lost if two guys start playing the same fiddle.
Romney today has more delegates than an other Republican and the media darlings cover McCain non stop...if anything else that tells you who the insider is. If McCain wins the nomination put a nail in the so-called "conservative evangelicals" movement being the rank and file of the Republican Party. Since 2000 I have heard Republicans in Virginia speak in disfavor of McCain's brand of conservatism which frankly is questionable at best. When Romeny's record appears move conservative on issues you know your in trouble. I know the Dems supposedly fear McCain in the general but every person I talk to say the same thing and that is the only way a vote gets cast for McCain is if Clinton is standing on the other podium come the General.