Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. This list was vetted by Daily Kos earlier today, and their comments helped me correct any inaccuracies, and make proper updates. The Democrats have 26 seats that may be vulnerable, with 15 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 46 seats that may be vulnerable, with 22 that are clearly vulnerable. None of the Virginia races are above slightly vulnerable at this point. Virginia's 1st District was taken of the list since the last update after the convincing victory by the Republican in the special election.
Although I placed Virginia's 2nd, 10th, and 11th districts in the "Slightly Vulnerable" column, that doesn't mean they are equal. If Tom Davis retires officially, then the race will move up to "Highly Vulnerable". It may move up later on, even if he stays in the race. "Slightly Vulnerable" casts a wide tent for races that are just barely vulnerable, and those just below my threshold for "Vulnerable".
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (7)
Florida 13 (Buchanan) - Democrat Christine Jennings may have actually won in 2006, but Buchanan was the one who moved to Washington. Maybe this time, all votes WILL be counted in Florida.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) - As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg will likely face a much stronger, and well-financed Democrat in 2008.
Nevada 03 (Porter) - Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) - While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic district. Saxton's retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 - Open Seat - Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 - Open Seat - With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) - Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 and her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat.
Vulnerable Republicans (15)
Alaska at large (Young) - Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich may run for Senate, but if he instead runs for Congress, he may also bring the Democrats a victory.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) - Rick Renzi's retirement opens up this seat which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican.
California 04 (Open Seat) - With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California's Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren't able to stray from Doolittle's ethical issues.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) - Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) - Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) - Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district.
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) - With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
New York 25 (Open Seat) - This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring at the end of his term it is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 29 (Kuhl) - Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) - Hayes struggled to keep his seat, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) - Chabot's 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough, but he may face a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus, if he runs.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) - Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) - Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race may be a target for the Democrats.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) - Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Washington 08 (Reichert) - A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (24)
Colorado 06 (Open Seat) - Not only will there be no "President Tancredo" on the ballot, there is no longer Congressman Tancredo on the ballot. The Democrats may have an opportunity in this conservative-leaning district.
Florida 08 (Keller) - This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected.
Florida 24 (Feeney) - As an ethically challenged Republican, he may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored.
Idaho 01 (Sali) - Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could easily slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) - Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, the Democrats still have a chance.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) - Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Illinois 14 (Open Seat) - Hastert's retirement opens up this seat for which the former Speaker of the House faced a spirited challenge in 2006.
Indiana 03 (Souder) - Souder faced a strong challenge out of nowhere in 2006.
Kentucky 04 (Davis) - Davis' strong defense of his seat in 2006 makes him less vulnerable in 2008
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) - Knollenberg's 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) - Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) - Bachmann's strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) - The Democrats didn't mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) - Heller's 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
New York 26 (Reynolds) - While the Foley issue lingered in the last weeks of the 2006 campaign, it is hard to believe that was the only reason this race was so close.
Ohio 07 (Open Seat) - Despite an easy GOP victory in 2006, the retirement of Dave Hobson leaves this seat open to potential Democratic takeover
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) - LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006, yet this is still a swing district for 2008.
Pennsylvania 15 (Dent) - Dent faced a decent challenge in 2006 from out of nowhere, and if the Democrats make an effort this time, they may have a chance.
Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy) - Murphy has some ethical challenges, but pulled off a 16 point victory in 2006 in this swing district.
Virginia 02 (Drake) - Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Maybe the voters will focus on actual issues this time, but if not, Drake will likely hold on again.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) - Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district that is trending more and more Democratic.
Virginia 11 (Davis) - Tom Davis will likely try and defend his seat, now that he dropped out of the Senate race. But, don't count out a Democratic challenge in this district which has been trending Democratic for several years now.
Washington 05 (McMorris) - McMorris fought off a potentially tough challenge from an under-funded Democratic challenger in 2006. However, if the Democrats make a serious run this time, she could be in trouble.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) - The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (8)
Florida 16 (Mahoney) - This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) - Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) - Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat only due to the Democratic wave.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) - Was this victory a fling for conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship?
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) - Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) - With Bob Ney long gone, and with the GOP having time to find a decent candidate, Space's good fortune is gone.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) - Chris Carney doesn't have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat is strong Republican-leaning.
Texas 22 (Lampson) - Lampson had a lot on his side in 06, but now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Vulnerable Democrats (7)
California 11 (McNerney) - Pombo's defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney's best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil.
Illinois 08 (Bean) - Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Indiana 09 (Hill) - former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) - This may be a rematch with Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn't mean facing this well-known candidate is easy.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) - As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election to a second term.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) - In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. Gillibrand looks to be in good shape for now, but may still face some decent opposition in 2008.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) - Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican district
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (11)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) - While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 in what remains a swing district
Arizona 08 (Giffords) - While Giffords had a strong victory in 2006, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable
Connecticut 02 (Courtney) - Courtney won by the slimmest of margins in 06, but given the voters in the district, he probably won't have as much trouble this time
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) - While his 8-point victory was impressive, it isn't enough to keep the GOP from mounting a serious challenge in 2008.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) - The death of Julia Carson leaves an intriguing opening for the Republicans. This district could be heavily influenced by who are chosen as the Presidential candidates. It is hard to say how this will race play out until later in the campaign season.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) - Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition
New York 19 (Hall) - Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall's surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can't get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) - I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) - Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) - Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
West Virginia 01 (Mollohan) - Mollohan has some remaining ethical questions that could jeopardize him in 2008. However, he didn't have much of a problem getting re-elected in 2006.
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Notes on the House races
On the other hand, an Obama-Romney race would probably mean we pick up all of them - yes, there are Mormons in NV as the primary showed, but most of them already vote and for the Republican, and Obama brings out a lot of additional young voters
hard to say how McCain - Obama race would play out, although I suspect there would be a slight edge for Obama that would help in reas with large universities, which would include NM-01 for example, but might be insufficient elsewhere.
Also, Periello did great in raising cash, but if in order to move voters to the ballot box, he's going to actually have to raise some from inside the district. Despite my realism, which I'm sure some of you see as blatant pessimism, I have an open mind and a lot of hope for Mr. Perriello. I look forward to meeting with the man, and doing whatever I can to help him chart his course to victory.
Apart from the plusses and minuses of each individual candidate, I think the political environment might be a lot friendlier for Virge in 2010 than in will be in 2008, assuming a Democrat wins the White House. The first off-year election is tough.
As I sai, I agree with your assessment on this one: tough, but not impossible.
1) Tom is from Charlottesville and hasn't lived in the district since he left for Yale. South of Nelson County, this District will cut it nose of to spite it's face just to stick it to those Charlottesville liberal do-gooders.
2) He comes from privilege and has never had to worry about paying for college, being able to afford or have access to healthcare, affordable childcare, if his job is going over to India, or if his Social Security is going into the stock market.
3) No one in the 5th CD cares about his work Darfur or the Middle East.
4) Short of Virgil having a staff sex scandel breaking, getting caught with kiddy porn, or shooting someone dead on US 58 (which might get him more votes), Virgil will win again.
I did support and work for Shreve, but this is politics and Tom raised the money. He did one hell of a job. No question. Outside of NOVA, VA 2 is a better bet than VA 5. But, they need a candidate.
Considering there doesn't seem to be much activity in VAs-2 and 4, VA-5 is the next best competitive seat for us behind VAs-10 and 11.
Perriello can do this if he can marshall the grassroots support. Goode is execrable.
1. Tom Pirellio has been doing a great job raising money, and he is confident of his ability to make inroads in Southside.
2. The Bush administration is an utter failure. That hurts all GOP candidates.
3. A crummy economy tends to hurt incumbents.
I think, at least in the 5th, an Obama candidacy would help more down-ticket than a Clinton candidacy would. Remember, Goode was a Democrat until recently, and he still has a lot of support among Southside Dems. Beating him will require a lot of independents and new voters, and at least in this district Obama seems more likely to generate that.
I also think Deeds' candidacy, though that election won't be until 2009, helps. Regardless of what happens in 2009, the fact that there is a potentially strong candidate for Governor from the rural, west side of the state, in the Democratic party can only help.
Finally, the Goode wild card is who knows what will come out of his mouth between now and the election.
I have done this but I would like to see what you guys think.
Seats like Heath Shuler's in NC, Tim Walz's in MN, and Nancy Boyda's in KS are DEFINITELY at risk with a Clinton nomination, IMHO. Also, I think it takes a lot of seats that are pick-up opportunities for Dems this time in more conservative states out of play as well. I would expect Dems to break even hopefully, but I wouldn't expect any huge gains with a Clinton nomination.
However, I do think a Hillary wave might sweep a few more GOP moderates in the Northeast out of office, like Shays, Kuhl, Reynolds, etc and pull lots of liberal-minded single women out to vote in Democratic strongholds that wouldn't otherwise bother.
Basically, I see an Obama candidacy (or Edwards) giving Dems the biggest Congressional GAIN opportunities.