Source: The State (SC)

among WHITE voters under 30.

among white males. Edwards, obviously, won white among men. Clinton, obviously, won white women.

another red state constituency Dems need to overcome.

since the black community in SC tends to be fairly religious - especially the women, whom Obama won with a 82% share

to the GOP candidate. And when we lose the overall church vote in the general election, that will be with black voters factored in to that total as well. I know. Still a good narrative for the Obama folks.

I think that Edwards needs to make a decision tonight.  The votes aren't in yet, but if he doesn't come in second place tonight I feel it is time to drop out.

I am a strong Edwards supporter.  But, I also believe that Hillary Clinton is wrong for our country.  My guess is that Obama will get more Edwards votes than Hillary.  Because of this, I think it makes sense for John Edwards to throw in the towel.  He ran a great campaign, a fair campaign, and should be proud of what he accomplished.

It will be interesting. As for me, I am going in the ride until it stops :)

I'll stick with him as well.  I just feel that it's probably over, unfortunately.

In real terms is over, but he may want to continue to keep injecting the message of economic justice into the campaign. He may hang on until Super Tuesday though. After that, it will really be over, and maybe he will do that to save face.

If that is the case, I want him to stay on.  I'm so mad at Hillary and her war dialing against Edwards today - I would like to see Edwards go negative on Hillary that way Edwards doesn't need to.

She just crossed the line today.

No need to attack her at this point. Every punch gets her more and more stuck.

Hillary has made me angry.  Politically, what I would out of anger may not be the best approach.

I'm going to vent until they shut this server down ;-)

accrding to CNN:

Bill Clinton's aggressive campaigning in South Carolina in the days leading up to the state's primary may have had a net negative effect among South Carolina's Democratic primary voters, CNN exit polls indicate.

Roughly 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters said Bill Clinton's campaigning was important in how they ultimately decided to vote, and of those voters, 48 percent went for Barack Obama while only 37 percent went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent of those voters voted for John Edwards

Meanwhile, the exit polls also indicate Obama easily beat Clinton among those voters who decided in the last three days - when news reports heavily covered the former president's heightened criticisms of Obama. Twenty percent of South Carolina Democrats made their decision in the last three days and 51 percent of them chose Obama, while only 21 percent picked Clinton

Huge mistake by Bill Clinton and the Clinton campaign, in other words, to go so absurdly negative on Barack Obama.  Frankly, this was a bad short-term AND bad long-term strategy.

And they won't stop.  Which is just fine by me.  They are losing support.  I spoke to my neighbors about this last night, both were on the fence, but not anymore: they will be voting for Barack.

Is this how he would behave during a general election?  Has this man completely lost any semblance of control?  Can ANY candidate afford this kind of additional baggage??

Bill Clinton was never exactly known for his sense of propriety, dignity, or restraint.  Time to look at the big picture.

It will be interesting to see how Hillary Clinton reacts.

"We are very pleased with our amazing performance in South Carolina tonight, and look forward to taking our positive message across this great nation...blah blah blah, spin spin spin."

I mean, the platitude part is obvious.

I meant in her campaign strategy.

Continue with the over-the-top negativity or try to be positive for a change?

the over-the-top negativity.

A classic "Clinton" is to play by the polls - which not only have her losing the primary, but also general opinion appears to be showing a dislike of her negative campaigning.  The Clinton camp puts an easy two and two together and they look for non-negative ways to run this race.  

But the problem with going negative from early on is that it's difficult (not impossible, but tough) to turn it around and run on positives later.

We'll see, she may freak and go all out negative, but my guess right now is that this spanking (and related bad polling on negativity) changes their strategy and they ditch most of the negativity.

as the statement released by her campaign seem to imply, how will that play?

but if Obama wins 54-27-19 that would still give him a 2-1 victory over Clinton, which would be substantive.  I think more likely it will be over 20% but not 30%

25 points?

n/t

the Clintons reacted with their usual lack of class.  They skipped the state and wouldn't show their faces in person or thank their supporters for their hard work.  In contrast, when Barack Obama came in second in New Hampshire, he gave a great speech, far better than Hillary Clinton's.  When do we get to hear her counterpart: "I have lost my voice?"

Also, Bill Clinton's cheesy comparison of Barack Obama to Jesse Jackson was one last insult to the voters of South Carolina, and the nation.

On to Florida?  Who do they think they're fooling?

Clinton staff (quoted anonymously of course) are still pushing the spin that white voters will think of Obama as simply "the black candidate":

Clinton campaign strategists denied any intentional effort to stir the racial debate. But they said they believe the fallout has had the effect of branding Obama as "the black candidate," a tag that could hurt him outside the South. -- AP

link

Arrogance and intelligence have a hard time coexisting in the same person. Bill is arrogant. The real question then should be how long before the arrogance goes away. I think the answer is not soon.

It will break my tradition of compulsively checking RK until late tonight.

Could we wait until tomorrow? Please...  

It's gotta happen sometime.  At least we didn't do it at 8 :-)

Enjoy the conversation for the next 1:45 and pick it up again in the morning.  We should be rolling by then.

Anything is better than just pulling the plug at 8:00 :)

It could also be argued that Hillary's campaign KNEW they weren't going to win South Carolina, but also knew finishing behind Edwards would have looked really bad.

Obama 46%, McCain 41% (+5)
Obama 47%, Romney 38% (+9)

Clinton 47%, McCain 45% (+2)
Clinton 47%, Romney 42% (+5)

link

Also, I can see Obama competing in states where Hillary can't.  There's a reason why so many "red state" electeds have been endorsing Obama.

Not tonight, but I think a discussion of this would be interesting.

McCain..... 49%  
Clinton..... 38%

McCain..... 45%  
Obama..... 43%

Romney..... 44%  
Clinton....... 43%

Romney..... 41%  
Obama...... 47%

+/- 4.5%
link

makes more competitive than Clinton!

Look at who's endorsed Obama here:

Gov. Kaine
Rep. Scott
Rep. Boucher
Rep. Moran

I think there's a reason for that.

There are three or four potential VP candidates that I think could really blow the doors off the red/blue divide of the past 20 years:

Sebelius: She would put Kansas blue, and would probably make states like Missouri and Arkansas solidly blue, while helping put Colorado into play at the Presidential level.

Clark: Arkansas would be a gimme, but he would also help with Missouri -- and might be a game changer in the South.

Napolitano: She would flip Arizona, and maybe Nevada.

Webb: Virginia I think is flipping anyway, but this would help. His populist message meshes well with people like Sherrod Brown and Ted Strickland, and would probably help greatly in Ohio (which is probably the bellweather state going forward).

I personally prefer Webb in the Senate. I really hope to see an Obama/Sebelius ticket, with Edwards as AG, Clark or Richardson as SoS, and Napolitano as his state/federal envoy.  

makes absolutely no sense to add Sebelius, as she has no foreign policy experience (ditto Brown and Strickland).  Edwards does not have the background nor the inclination to be AG.  Clark? You mean Ramsey? Wesley is so deep in Clintons' knickers it isn't funny.

aj

According to CNN, "Florida governor endorses Sen. John McCain."  

Only kidding - but McCain did credit the DNC with setting up the audio ;-)

It's not our fault Republicans have difficulty with electronics or any type of contraption that requires someone to follow instructions ;-)

which talks about the millions of voters in FLORIDA -  really, does that mean they are going to break the rules and actually run a campaign there?  Might not that backfire even more?

She just issued a statement. Won't make an appearance in the state.

Ouch.

BTW, her statement apparently references Florida.

Bill Clinton to speak soon.

Obama to speak at 9.

Edwards not dropping out.

It is Edwards seeking a deal with Obama, but it is Obama who said they were not interested in a deal.

It's from Howard Fineman, so take it with a grain of salt.

"It is Edwards seeking a deal with Obama, but it is Obama who said they were not interested in a deal. "

I can't imagine why not.

They told the Edwards people maybe later.

I think it's a smart move, for right now. Anything Obama does that makes him look like politics as usual detracts from his appeal.

Again, I caution, this is Fineman. His source could just be a voice in his head.

it is a positive, issues-oriented message.

Apparently, that doesn't interest voters.

If they can't stoke their narrative, they say no thanks.

both are getting coverage. That's a monster advantage.  

The attention being garnered by Bill is mostly negative.  

Also, I really can't help but think that the whole "please tell Bill to shut up" "coalition" (for lack of better wording) thing is just a big fabrication of the media.  I mean, if my spouse were running for President I can't say I wouldn't be backing them just as he has been.  I don't believe he's really done anything too bad..

Barack Obama = Jesse Jackson

http://www.mydd.com/bb#6399

I am not making accusations (yet) but that definitely rubbed me the wrong way.  Why, of all the people who have won South Carolina in a primary or caucus, did he compare Obama to Jesse Jackson?

BTW Caroline Kennedy is endorsing Barack Obama according to MSNBC.

I had a conversation with someone after Iowa. I told her that if the Clintons are backed into a corner, they're going to start trying to make Obama into the "black candidate" ala Jesse Jackson. It's been obvious to me for weeks now, but now Bill finally just came out and said it. NEVER cease to amaze...

1) 20% of the blacks who voted would be unhappy with Clinton as the nominee according to the exit polls - Tim Russert said this

2) when Pres. Clinton's speech came on the big screen in Columbia at the Obama rally his voice apparently could not be heard over the booing - read about it here at Politico

That's not what he is saying. I think his point is fairly obvious, whether you agree with it or not.

Look, what makes this kind of analysis offensive is the implicit assumption that African American voters support African American candidates simply because of their race.

For some, this is true. Obviously, it is not universally true, and I can't break it down, but Clinton's statement, as a matter of political analysis, is not beyond the pale.

Now, that all said, I do wish he would be smarter than that, not in support of Hillary's candidacy, but because it pains me to see the party fractured, and regardless of my super-human ability to parse his words, comments like this suggest a sensibility that it is easy for people to find disturbing.

Edwards 131,174 45%
Kerry 88,508 30%
Sharpton 28,201 10%
Clark 21,011 7%
Dean 13,815 5%  
Lieberman 7,147 2%  
Kucinich 1,319 1%  

No doubt, it undercut's Clinton's point.

I'd be interested to know how the turnout compared, i.e., apparently, 53% of today's vote was African American. Do you know Chris, or do you have the source handy?  

when asked who could best unite the country, the voting borke just about the same as it is for the actual voting - in otherwords, 2-1 in favor of Obama.

The turnout in '04 was 51% white, 47% black.

Interestingly, Edwards won the African Vote that year of Kerry, 37-34.

I wonder why Edwards lost so much of the African American vote this time around?

Once Obama became a viable candidate, Obama was able to win over people with his message of hope.

That speech last week picked up many of the themes of Martin Luther King, updated to our modern times. And his life experience is something that many successful African Americans can identify with, and a great hope for those who still live in poverty of what they or their children can accomplish.

from the NY Times.

In an interview shown a few minutes ago on MSNBC and conducted earlier today, Bill Clinton was asked about the fairness of the "two against one" nature of he and Hillary both campaigning against Obama. ...

"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88. And he ran a good campaign. Senator Obama's run a good campaign here, he's run a good campaign everywhere."

Have you no shame Mr. President?  

What a disgraceful thing to say.  

Do you really believe that Bill Clinton wasn't trying to define Obama as the "black candidate"?  This is a sincere question that I think you need to ask yourself on a personal level.  The Clintons are incredibly skilled politicians.  Do you really believe that he would make these statements without really thinking about it?  Like I said, this is a personal question that I think you need to ask yourself.  If you feel comfortable with it then fine.  If you are uncomfortable with the statements and still want to support the Clintons, that is your prerogative.

To believe otherwise seriously underestimates Bill Clinton.

right now is "Bill Clinton has now EXPLICITLY played the race card".  People are livid.

for Josh Marshall's take on this.

The fact that Bill Clinton used the Jesse Jackson analogy at the same time Hillary's staff were out spinning that same theme definitely suggests that that's the simple message they're trying to propagate to white voters tonight - yes, Obama won South Carolina, but he's just "the black candidate", so white America won't vote for him...

i think i'm about to have a Lee Diamond style "Gerry Connolly  moment" on the Clintons!  ARGHHHHH!  

and the honest answer is I hope not.

I can't dismiss the possibility that this is a despicable strategy, but I think given his entire career and his record with respect to the African American community over the past 30 years, including unheralded work he has done post-presidency in Africa, our collective inattention to which is a huge crime, I give him the benefit of the doubt on this particular question.

for Bill Clinton, and that's WINNING.  Now, when it's Bill vs. the Republicans, that's one thing.  But when it's intra-party, it's a different story completely -- especially when they're cynically using RACE in the way they're using it. I'm really pissed.

for the black community as he has for the community as a whole.  However, what we are questioning here is not whether he is a racist or if he is or is not a friend of the black community.  It is instead a question of whether he is trying to tap into some ugly personal sentiment that many Americans hold.  I think the answer to that question is yes.

Very sad epilogue to what was, overall, a fine presidency.

It is not that we are forgetting what a jolly good fellow he is. Or that we are not remembering his past work for African Americans.

The beef today is not with Bill's past, but with his present.

I thought that by now the Clintons would be backing off since the polls would be telling them that the negative campaign is not working.

Maybe they are still in a state of shock, and after they get more rest they will come to their senses and stop the negative campaigning.  

with 73% of precincts reporting,  the votes total to 375,100   - that is actually quite amazing, and continues the pattern that the enthusiasm is much more on the side of Democrats than on that of Republicans

yes, it is true that Sen. Bill Nelson will endorse Clinton, and it is clear that they intend to try to play in Florida to try to claim a win - all depends on how the press decides to play it - they basically ignored Florida, and my sense is that if Clinton pushes too hard in Florida press will label it a sign of desperation.

Carolyn will compare Obama to her father -  now, that might really get inside Bill Clinton's head!

Now, what about Ted Kennedy?

Just said TK will sit it out.

Neutral is good for Obama.

than McCain and Huckabee, combined. Now, I'm not too smart, but it's very interesting that the Democrat in South Carolina that receives 55% of the tally has more votes total than two Republican candidates that combine for 63% of the total.

Surely, in South Carolina, that reddest of red states, the Democrats couldn't outpoll the Republicans, right?  

:)

that Obama got more votes in Iowa than Gore and Kerry COMBINED in 2000 and 2004 respectively.

Read Caroline Kennedy's "A President Like My Father".  

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president - not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

Wow.

Go into Super Tuesday as an underdog and turn out throngs of voters in big states who want to see a woman president in their lifetime.  Also scare enough democratic voters into thinking the country as a whole won't back an African American, so Hillary is the only hope for victory.

I really was on the fence until this week.  Now I'm going for Obama.

Just off the AP wire ...

Clinton campaign strategists denied any intentional effort to stir the racial debate. But they said they believe the fallout has had the effect of branding Obama as "the black candidate," a tag that could hurt him outside the South.

I guess they're really broken up about it.

--Josh Marshall

whose 1 PM email said that Obama would win by 12 - and that was an attempt to raise expectations beyond what obama would achieve, at least in his estimation.

Methinks the Clintons now have a major credibility problem with the press, and if that makes them even more paranoid it might be a very destructive feedback loop.

Had Clinton not pulled out NH, I wonder if Obama's performance tonight would have been so massive?    

Interesting.

South Carolina was a slaughter, and she is just moving on.

Actually, very smart.

People should not underestimate her.  The so-called experts on CNN don't get it.

based on an amazing turnout.  With 98% of the precincts reporting, a total of 520,000 votes have been counted - absolutely amzazing.

I spent the whole week in knots based on the way the overall campaign was going - it's so striking to see how voters saw through everything and turned out in historic numbers to be heard. And most rewarding - finally a candidate who can reach young people, a whole generation, who can change the world.  Bobbie Kennedy would be so proud.  

And what an amazing victory speech.      

final tally. 19% for Edwards.

The Clintons are finding that they have to run against the base of the party, the grassroots, and black Democrats to win. Yes, it has come to this.

But there is something bigger going on here. That is the fight to control the party. It is shaping up to be a contest between the old Democratic party machine, i.e. the DLC and elements of the DSCC, etc., and the grassroots. I've seen this coming for a long time and now the fight has truly gone public.

I don't think I have ever been a part of any campaign that had as much energy and excitement as this one. For the 3 days I was in Columbia you could yell out "Fired UP!" and hear someone responding "Ready to Go!". I can't wait for the 12th!!

I saw the same thing.  It is time to Rockn'Roll