Here's my current ranking and analysis of the leading (top 12) Democratic contenders for 2008. They are listed in descending order of their Tradesports price, as of this morning:
1) Hillary Clinton (Tradesports price: 43.0)
Pros: Greatest name recognition of any Democratic contender, currently leading the rest of the Democratic field by far in public opinion polls. A huge warchest and an almost unlimited ability to raise more money. Ccould head into 2007 with $50 million in the bank - wow! A popular Senator from New York, but also born in Illinois and lived in Arkansas for years, giving her potentially broad national appeal. The bottom line is that Hillary Clinton is a strong favorite for the Democratic 2008 presidential nomination if she wants it.
Cons: Highly controversial and polarizing. Problems with the Democratic left wing due to her support for the Iraq war, her membership in the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), and perceived pro-military position. After calling for a "cease-fire among the party's quarreling factions and for agreeing to assume the leadership of a DLC-sponsored initiative aimed at developing a more positive policy agenda for the party," the Washington Post reported that Clinton "drew an angry reaction [in July 2005] from liberal bloggers and others on the left, who accused her of siding with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) in a long-running dispute over the future of the party."
Elephant(s) in the room: Is America ready to elect a woman as President, something it's never done before? The health care debacle in 1993/94.
2) Mark Warner (Tradesports price: 20.8)
Pros: Just named one of Time Magazine's "5 Best Governors," Warner has impressive approval ratings as a Democratic governor in the "red" (voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004) state of Virginia. As Governor, Warner slashed spending and worked with a heavily Republican legislature to put Virginia's fiscal house in order. He also recently helped elect his lieutenant, Tim Kaine, as Virginia's next Governor (since Warner can't succeed himself under the Commonwealth's constitution). Warner's national profile has shot up since Kaine's November 8, 2005 election; recently Warner appeared on CBS' Face the Nation to talk about his "sensible centrist" approach, launched a snazzy new website (Forward Together) with prominent blogger Jerome Armstrong in charge, and made an extremely well-received visit to New Hampshire for a...skiing vacation. Ha ha. Perhaps most importantly, Warner would put Virginia - and possibly other Southern states -- into play, totally changing the national electoral math and signficantly increasing the chances of Democrats taking the White House in 2008.
Cons: Warner has only 4 years in political office (wait, is that a "pro" or a "con?"). Also, Warner has limited foreign policy and national security experience, although my understanding is that he is boning up. Perhaps a pairing with national security experts like Wes Clark, Bill Richardson, Al Gore or Joe Biden might be in order? Finally, Warner is a moderate Democrat and a member of the DLC, which could hurt him with the Democratic "base."
Elephant(s) in the room: None that I can think of. Some people say he's kind of goofy, but I don't really see it.
3) Al Gore (Tradesports price: 6.3)
Pros: More experienced than anyone in the field, by far. Tanned, rested and ready. Won the popular vote in 2000 and should have been President. Seems to have found his groove as a fiery speaker and critic of the Bush Administration. Moderate, DLC Democrat from the important southern state of Tennessee. Would be a formidable candidate
Cons: Probably isn't running. Going up against Hillary could be rough, and could also divide the DLC/centrist/Clinton-Gore Democrats.
Elephant(s) in the room: None. Should have been President in 2001.
4) John Edwards (Tradesports price: 5.9)
Pros: Very charismatic and a great speaker, Edwards was John Kerry's running mate in 2004 after doing surprisingly well in the primaries. High name recognition and very popular among Democrats in recent polls (second behind Hillary Clinton in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey. Should have no problem raising money.
Cons: As with several others on this list, a moderate, Edwards is a DLC, moderate, Southern Democrat who might have some difficulty with the liberal, activist Democratic "base." Also, does not have a natural platform from which to run, and has a somewhat thin resume (one term in the Senate). Finally, would compete with others - Mark Warner, Wes Clark -- for many of the same supporters.
Elephant(s) in the room: None, except that he ran for the nomination in 2004 and lost.
5) Joe Biden (Tradesports price: 5.3)
Pros: Respected expert on national security and foreign policy matters.
Cons: Tiny Delaware is not a great base from which to run for President. Been a Senator his whole career, and it's tough to run for President as a long-time Senator.
Elephant(s) in the Room: None, except that old plagiarism thing (who cares, though?) and a tendency to be a bit long-winded as a speaker (but a great orator when he's "on" - I've seen it in person). [UPDATE: Paul points out that Biden comes off as arrogant. Can't have THAT in a President, nosireebob! :)]
6) Bill Richardson (Tradesports price: 4.8)
Pros: Has tremendous experience in foreign policy, domestic policy, in Congress, as U.N. ambassador, as Secretary of Energy, and as the (highly popular) Governor of New Mexico. Known for his "can-do," "hands-on" management style, and also a gregarious plain-spoken manner.
Cons: No major ones, except that he doesn't have an extremely high national profile. Also, had a bit of a rocky tenure at the Department of Energy (Los Alamos, Wen Ho Lee case) and was not selected by Al Gore as his running mate.
Elephant(s) in the room: Is the country ready to elect a Hispanic as President, something it has never done? [UPDATE: Paul points out that I missed a big one here -- Richardson could have a "Bill Clinton" problem.]
7) Evan Bayh(Tradesports price: 3.9)
Pros: Popular former Democratic Governor (left office with an 80% approval rating) of heavily Republican Indiana (1988-1996) and member of the U.S. Senate since 1999. A centrist Democrat, former chair of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) and a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. Young, attractive, and a graduate of the University of Virginia law school.
Cons: Doesn't really add much in terms of electoral vote strength, since the Midwest already tends to go Democratic in Presidential elections. Would Indiana and its 11 Electoral Votes go Democratic with Bayh as the nominee? And what other "red states" would Bayh bring along if he were the nominee? Finally, Bayh could find it difficult to gain support among the left wing of the Democratic Party, which is disproportionately important in the primaries, due to his relatively conservative position on the Democratic political spectrum.
Elephant(s) in the Room: Evan who?
8) Russ Feingold (Tradesports price: 3.7)
Pros: A strong Progressive, opposed to Free Trade Agreements, against the Iraq War, a leader on the environment. Cast the lone vote against the USA PATRIOT Act because of its potential to violate civil liberties. A "good government/reform" advocate, having co-authored the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform act. Also has been a leader on lobbying reform. Smart. Excellent speaker.
Cons: Will he be seen as "too liberal" to be elected? Russ who?
Elephant(s) in the room: Is the country ready to elect a Jew as President, something it's never done before?
9) John Kerry (Tradesports price: 2.8)
Pros: Received the second-highest number of votes ever for president of the United States (59 million). A serious person who improved as a candidate as he gained experience in 2004. Lots of money, lost of connections. Keeps in touch with his 3-million-strong e-mail list, maintains his own PAC (Keeping America's Promise), assists other Democrats up and down the ballot, and appears frequently in key states across the country.
Cons: One-time Presidential losers rarely run again, and rarely win if they do. Most likely Democrats are looking to someone new in 2008, despite Kerry's attempts to stay relevant. We'll see.
Elephant(s) in the room: Been there, done that. Lost when he should have won. Voted "for it before he voted against it." Swift Boat Veterans from Hell.
10) Wesley Clark ( Tradesports price: 2.5)
Pros: Four-star general from the southern state of Arkansas. Resume includes "first in his class at West Point," "Rhodes Scholar," and "Commander of the Kosovo campaign," among other things. A large and devoted grassroots following helped "draft" him in 2003, and many of these people would sign up for another tour of duty if called once again to service. Smartly, Clark has been busy traveling around the country in recent months to help other Democrats, including Tim Kaine in Virginia.
Cons: Ran a campaign in 2003/2004 that was widely criticized as disorganized, late-to-get-started, and unfocused. Clark also was widely seen as unimpressive in Democratic debates and uneven in his speeches and other public appearances. However, it must be pointed out that this was Clark's first run at political office, which he has never held (another disadvantage, or is that an advantage?). Could make a great running mate for someone else on this list, like Mark Warner, who is relatively lacking in foreign policy and national security experience. The last "con" is that Clark may not want to run in 2008, although he certainly has been looking like a candidate in recent months.
Elephant(s) in the room: Can run a war, but not a political campaign? A bit aloof?
11) Barack Obama (Tradesports price: 2.4)
Pros: Great speaker, highly charismatic, rising star in the Democratic Party.
Cons: Little experience, having just been elected a year ago to the U.S. Senate after serving as Illinois state senator.
Elephant(s) in the room: Is the country ready to elect an African-American as President, something it has never done before?
12) Tom Vilsack (Tradesports price: 1.8)
Pros: Named head of the DLC on July 16, 2005, an appointment "which will allow him to travel widely and converse with party leaders." Popular Governor of the key first caucus state of Iowa, Vilsack is a leader on health care issues and chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association in 2004. Iowa is also a key "swing state," having gone for George W. Bush over John Kerry by just 10,000 votes (1%) in 2004.
Cons: Also a moderate, DLC Democrat; same issues with "the base" as other candidates mentioned above. Very low name recognition.
Elephant(s) in the room: None that I know of.