We Can't Lose..Oh Yes We Can!

In the poll, 56 percent of registered voters said they would be likely to vote against a local candidate supported by Bush, while 34 percent said the opposite.

Only 9 percent said their first choice in next year's elections would be a Republican who supports Bush on almost every major issue.

Forty-six percent said the country would be better off if Congress were controlled by Democrats, while 34 percent backed a GOP majority.

The Democrats can't lose.  Right?

WRONG!

How can we lose? 

1) Today's headlines are quickly forgotten
The past few months, we've been treated to headline after headline about Republican failures and corruption scandals.  The casualties in Iraq, mis-representation of the war to Congress and the public, no plan to get out, the horrific and shameful response to Hurricane Katrina, scandals galore, favoritism and huge tax breaks for oil companies, and on and on. 

But what will be in the headlines this coming spring, summer, and fall?  What if we catch or kill Osama bin Laden?  What if oil prices go into free fall? What if Iraq stabilizes and casualties fall?  What if there are no botched responses to natural disasters in the US?  These would all be good things and most of us hope they will happen.  But if these are the headlines next November, the misdeeds and corruption of the Bush administration and his rubber stamp Republican Congress will be long forgotten.  Public opinion can be a fickle thing - especially when it's driven by today's headlines.  No matter what happens during the next year, we must work tirelessly to keep the Bush failures fresh in peoples minds.

2) We could underestimate the GOP campaign apparatus
Say what you want about the Republican policy and ideology, but you've got to give them credit for running very effective campaigns.  We must respect that campaign savvy.  Democrats decry Republican tactics as fast food for the mind, appealing to the "reptilian brain," fear mongering, deceptive, or even illegal.  But the thing is, they work --  time and time again.  And after stinging loses this November,  I can pretty much guarantee that the Republicans will redouble their efforts to identify new tactics .  They will search endlessly and ruthlessly for vulnerabilities or areas to exploit in the Democrats.  They will come on strong.  Very strong.

3) We could overestimate our own advantage
Along the very same lines, we must never assume our moral and logical advantage will translate automatically into votes.  Yes, the Democrats DO have the advantage at the moment, but let's not fool ourselves into thinking we've got a sure thing going here.  If we assume that all we need to do is sit back and watch the Republicans collapse, that there's no way the Republicans can overcome their failure and corruption, then we are guaranteed to continue having a "red" Congress. 

Throughout history, individuals, teams, and nations have fallen victim to overestimating their supposed advantages or underestimating their opponents' strengths.  Given the hurricane of failures that has swamped the GOP in recent months, it would be very tempting for Democrats and Progressives  to congratulate ourselves on a victory not yet won.  Don't believe it for a moment. 

Through dumb luck on our part or massive failure on the part of Bush and his followers, we've been put in a position where the midterms are ours to lose.  So let's not lose them.

By all means, Progressives, Democrats and moderates should enjoy this moment.  But they should also use it constructively, not squander an opportunity when taking back Congress is now within our reach.  Winning back our country from the right-wing Republicans is no longer a hopeless fantasy, but it's far from a done deal.  We've got a lot of work to do between now and November 2006.  So let's do it!

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