The only poll which shows them even close is Zogby and that is a rolling poll containing two days prior to the debate.

It really was an amazing address.  Obama's opponents gave conventional stump speeches; Obama waited until everyone else had spoken then he went out and launched a movement.

Something else needs to be said: Obama is more than a pretty face.  He has shown himself to be an excellent organizer and political strategist.  Obama's success hasn't been an accident: it's the result of a carefully crafted strategy designed to make the most of his strengths.

The elections are playing out precisely the way the Obama campaign has intended them to.

I have been writing about politics for 30 years and I've never seen anyone with such intuitive political intelligence. This morning's WaPost talks of Obama's "post partisan politics" - this idea was virtually hatched by Mark Warner and went on to Bloomberg and Arnold. This week Sam Nunn and David Boren are holding a conference on "post partisanship" and Obama's rise is confluent with it. Obama (Obama/Edwards '08 or Obama/Webb '08) awakens the most important turning in post-war politics. Here in crusty New Hampshire we disliked him at first as an Oprah presentation with little experience. When we heard him on habeas corpus and nuclear disarmament we liked him more. Recently, we have heard from Michelle and I can honestly say that now we are actually beginning to LOVE him.  

It will be interesting to watch the 2008 pre-primary polls and compare how close they are to actual primary results.

The Des Moines Register pre-primary poll picked Huckabee and Obama.

Now the latest poll in NH shows Obama and McCaine in the "winners" circle.

Have the pollsters improved their techniques ? Remember the "inaccurate" pre and exit poll results in 2000 and 2004 ? Time will tell.

At risk of being branded a conspiracy theorist (gasp!), I would dare to say that the documented vote fraud in 2004 may have something to do with the difference between the polls and the election results.  

Thank you for mentioning this.  The NYT just had a great story on the continuing troubled state of voting machine accuracy.  http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01...  It seems to be getting worse, not better.

I personally think we should go to mailed paper ballots (with three week voting windows) and scrap all these electronic systems.  ALL electronic systems are hackable.

I also think the 2004 election was stolen.

I'm hoping the Dems wrap up the nomination process early so we can spend our time working on these other issues.

I know one of the regular RK readers and occasional commenters is a computer security expert and perhaps he will comment if he reads this thread within a thread.

Obama up by 13!!!

On election night, Obama was down by 7 in rolling average polls, when all of these get tallied, he'll likely be up by 7.

That's just AWESOME!

Welcome to the OBAMA Brushfire!!!

This hasn't been updated since about 2:00 PM EST today, but it's one of the better poll of polls:

http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-...

When's the last time we had such a gifted speaker, really an ORATOR like Obama??

People have underestimated him .... but his speech / speaking set him apart of the entire field .... both Democrats and Republicans ...

This is getting good .... GO O!!!

I am an Edwards supporter, but I am enjoying the victory of Obama. :)

Many of my conservative friends say that they wouldn't mind having Obama as president. My wife tells me the same about her conservative friends.

My main happiness comes from seeing the Hillary camp sweat over Iowa. It is nice also to hear her suddenly talk about economic hardship as soon as she lost there.

But let's see what happens.