RK ARCHIVE - Sunday Morning NH Polls

Republicans
McCain: 32%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 11%
Huckabee: 11%
Giulani: 9%
Thompson: 4%

Note: "All interviews were conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before last night's debate."

Note: "Obama has won in that part of the sample taken since Iowa - and just this past one day alone Obama led by 8 points."

Republicans
Romney: 32%
McCain: 31%
Huckabee: 12%
Giuliani: 7%
Paul: 6%
Thompson: 3%

Note: "...50% of the sample in this report was gathered before the results of the Iowa caucuses became known, while the other 50% was completed after. This sample in this report was also taken completely before last night's Republican and Democratic debates in Manchester."

Comments

Four recent NH polls show it very close on Dem side (PM - 1/6/2008 1:14:33 PM)

Mason-Dixon http://tpmelectioncentral.com/...

McCain 32% (+16)
Romney 24% (-1)
Huckabee 12% (+1)
Giuliani 10% (-7)
Paul 8% (+3)

Obama 33% (+6)
Clinton 31% (+1)
Edwards 17% (+7)
Richardson 7% (+0)

(half the data collected after Iowa)

The Concord Monitor poll shows it a dead heat:

John McCain has doubled his support since mid-December and leads Mitt Romney, 35 percent to 29 percent, according to a Concord Monitor/Research 2000 post-Iowa survey of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee was the choice of 13 percent of those surveyed, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 8 percent, Ron Paul at 7 percent, Fred Thompson at 3 percent and Duncan Hunter at 1 percent.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Barack Obama was the choice of 34 percent of those surveyed and Hillary Clinton was the choice of 33 percent, suggesting the race is a virtual dead heat. John Edwards was next at 23 percent, followed by Bill Richardson at 4 percent and Dennis Kucinich at 3 percent.
Research 2000 surveyed 400 likely Republican and 400 likely Democratic primary voters yesterday and today. The margin of error for each sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

http://www.yourconcord.com/pri...

The CNN poll, conducted after the caucuses:

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) - With three days to go until the New Hampshire primary, it's dead even in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
A new CNN/WMUR New Hampshire presidential primary poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire has Senators Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois all tied up, with each grabbing the support of 33 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in the Granite State.
Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina is in third place with 20 percent. (Full poll results [PDF])
"Both Obama and Edwards appear to have benefited form the Iowa caucuses. Each picked up 3 points in New Hampshire. Clinton lost one point, since our last poll taken before the caucuses," says CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider.

McClatchy-MSNBC Poll

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227...

Obama now leads Clinton by a margin of 33-31 percent, thanks to an apparent surge of support the night after he won the Iowa caucuses. Given the poll's margin of error, the numbers amount to a statistical tie. But that still marks a gain for Obama, who has trailed Clinton in New Hampshire for months.
On the Republican side, McCain led the field by 32-24 percent over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. There, it was McCain who got a bounce, not Iowa winner Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas who still trails in third place and appeared to get no immediate traction from Iowa.

The McClatchy poll straddled the caucus.

Fortunately, the election date is close (PM - 1/6/2008 2:20:17 PM)

I'm just reporting them -- I don't pretend to know much about sampling. But we'll know soon. I'm poll weary and pundit weary. ARG did criticize the Des Moines Register poll after-the-fact as not matching the entrance polls -- what can I say. :)

Another Sunday morning report of interest -- George Will seems to like Obama. The purpose of his column today is to pick on Edwards and Huckabee as misguided populists -- that's no surprise coming from Will. But I thought this closing in his column was surprising:

Post

Barack Obama, who might be mercifully closing the Clinton parenthesis in presidential history, is refreshingly cerebral amid this recrudescence of the paranoid style in American politics. He is the un-Edwards and un-Huckabee -- an adult aiming to reform the real world rather than an adolescent fantasizing mock-heroic "fights" against fictitious villains in a left-wing cartoon version of this country.

Anyone understand "recrudescence"? I didn't.

To break out anew or come into renewed activity, as after a period of quiescence.