Jarding is a genius and Mame is one of the best in the business.  This (Jarding in particular given family connections with Mame) is a real coup for Brian.  

Nice work.

Because while Shenandoah, Tidewater, and Southside VA Dems love Creigh Deeds, they personally identify themselves as WARNER DEMOCRATS.

Mark Warner is a huge brand inside Dem circles outside of the NoVA exurbs and this move will go a long way to quiet the kind of infighting that we saw on James Martin's post yesterday.  

This should be about choosing the next Governor, and the best thing about this move by Moran is that it takes the focus off of regional differences.

I know I haven't lived down here long, but I know enough not to make the assertion that Tidewater loves Creigh Deeds. I for one am a little disappointed we didn't get a Dem Senate candidate in the Beach. (Northam only has 2 or 3 precincts in Virginia Beach.) Yes, Stolle and Wagner would have been tough for any Democrat to face, but so was John Welch.  Brian worked his butt off to help us find and recruit great House candidates.  There are many of us down here in Tidewater that love him for that! And for that we will very enthusiastically throw him our support.  

Yes, Brian has done a great job as Caucus Chair and has really hustled for new candidates all over Virginia. I appreciate his work there as well.  I just don't see how his skills as being a hard-core partisan warrior translate into being able to win state-wide election at the top of the ticket as Governor. If anything, it contrasts with the kind of personalities and images that have given us our state-wide victories in the past.

I'd love to see Moran become majority leader when we take control of the House. That's what he's best cut out for.  

You are suggesting that Brian is incapable of, or at least not suited to, working with the opposition.  That he's the hard-core partisan versus Creigh's more reasonable bi-partisan candidate.  In short, you think Brian would not be able to reach out to and work with the Republicans in the General Assembly.  Sorry, I'm just not buying this picture.  Not only has Brian worked very effectively across the aisle in the GA while still managing to strongly promote Democratic interests, but he has demonstrated time and again his ability to set aside his most partisan interests in an effort to resolve differences when the situation calls for it.  He doesn't engage in the kind of brinkmanship or retribution partisans are famous for.  On the contrary, he's a very reasonable and reasoned individual and has a well-deserved reputation for being able to work with and come to agreements with opponents of all stripes, from the defense attorneys he used to encounter as a prosecutor all the way to his opponents in the General Assembly.  

I'm still undecided for 2009, but not b/c of what you say Mr. Landers.

Brian passed 12 bills last year through a REPUBLICAN General Assembly - things like new crime vicitims protections, stuff for mass transit, etc. Thats through HOUSE Republicans - the right wing ones! He clearly has demonstrated - over 12 years in the house - that he can do what Mark Warner did and work across the aisle to get things done. The people of Virginia would respond to that if he decides to run.

I like them both. this is going to be a tough decision.

me off?  Maybe you don't care, but if you think that attacking Brian Moran for his "accent" or for being from the HORRIBLE northern Virginia is going to win people like me over, you are  100% mistaken. And I say this as someone who likes Creigh Deeds a great deal.

Not only was Mame Warners Political Director for years, but she also spent the last year helping raise funds for Governor Kaine (everyone remember the big Kaine event that raised $1 million in NOVA, yeah that was her.)

And I think we all know about Steve...

Huge News. Steve Jarding was the guy that made the last candidate from Alexandria winnable all across Virginia. He can do it again. The Warner connection here isn't surprising.  
I also think that Brian and Warner have been friends for years.  I remember Brian told the story a few years ago of his first run for the House.  He recalled that while he was a prosecutor he went to dinner with Warner.  Warner urged Brian to run for delegate. That was before Warner ran for Senate or Governor. Then all through the administration Brian was Warner's right-hand in the legislature. This is a great logical next step for Brian.

With Steve Jarding and Mame Reiley on board, I'm sold. Brian Moran in 2009.

Steve Jarding has excellent king fu. Moran needs him to even have a prayer of finding support in rural Virginia.

Funny, though. I thought he was committed to running Tim Johnson's operation in South Dakota through the end of 2008. But Tim Johnson polls pretty damn well right now at this point according to the last SUSA poll I saw (maybe a month ago?). Maybe Steve decided that Tim didn't need him so much as it looked like he would.

Steve Jarding missed our beloved Commonwealth and wanted to come back.  

The "But..." is that I really hope Steve's reason isn't that he thinks Tim Johnson may not run for re-election.

The positive side of that coin, though, is that Johnson's decision to retire is that it is highly likely that Stephanie Herseth could win his seat by giving up her House seat. She's very popular in a more or less R-leaning state and probably could hold the Senate seat for at least as Tom Daschel did.

                   T.C.      

n/t

I didn't seriously believe Tim Johnson was even considering retiring, especially knowing how well his recovery is going. I just wanted to hear it from someone who should know, and I'm sure does know in your case. And I had forgotten how many times Steve has lived in Va. and worked so long and hard for Dems. Of course for minor practical reasons unrelated to politics, Steve might want to retain his South Dakota primary resident status just because they don't have state income tax (Just kidding. I don't think Steve has to worry too much about the 5.75 % max. Va. income tax hit).

But perhaps the most important thing I wasn't thinking about that I'm sure is the case is that Tim Johnson really doesn't need for Steve to be in So. Dak., partly because of Tim's popularity even with moderate Republicans and partly because Tim knows he can always give Steve a call whenever he needs some advice. The other plus for Tim is that, other than Thune who won Tom Daschel's seat, the
So. Dak. GOP really doesn't have a good candidate who could seriously challenge Johnson anyway so long as Tim's supporters don't get overconfident, which rarely happens there.

   Happy 2008. This is a great year to be a Va. Dem.

He lives there, after all.

The "But..." is that I really hope Steve's reason isn't that he thinks Tim Johnson may not run for re-election.

The positive side of that coin, though, is that Johnson's decision to retire is that it is highly likely that Stephanie Herseth could win his seat by giving up her House seat. She's very popular in a more or less R-leaning state and probably could hold the Senate seat for at least as Tom Daschel did.

                   T.C.      

I feel good about him working with the former Warner Clan. I said before in the other blog. When i saw them during the 07 campaign swing days before the election I saw a connection Between Brian, Mark, Ward and Jim. Creed was there but I did not get a good signal there...

I see good things from this...

... then Deeds wins that argument, at least theoretically, hands down. He starts with built-in advantages for drawing support from downstate, and as far as I can tell, there is nothing about him that would his support in Northern Virginia to be softer in northern Virginia than Moran's. The GOP strategy come 2009 will not be to try to draw support in Northern Virginia anyway, IMHO  -- neither McConnell nor Allen would think it would do much good to burn time and resources up there -- but to try to offset that region's strength in the rest of the state.

Once you get past theory, however, and start to compare specific candidates, then maybe Moran can overcome Deeds' inherent advantages. And, of course, this is all a separate issue from who would make the best governor, which ought to actually figure somewhere in the debate at some point.

But that doesn't change make Deeds' built-in advantages any less.

aznew- i'm not sure if you're right. I've seen some stuff that says Deeds way underpreformed Leslie Byrne in all the fast growing suburbs (mostly in NOVA, but even in Charlottesville area). If Creigh is 7pts behind Tim Kaine and can't stay close to Leslie in the fast growing area, why is he more electable?  What makes us think that Creigh can lead the ticket when he underpreformed it last time? I'm not saying Moran can lead the ticket - not sure of that - but i don't know that Creigh can any better.

Does anyone have all the numbers on this stuff so we can get some real answers on the 2005 race??? I'm not sure who's more electable.  

I have some that I put together myself to take a look at all this, and will provide them later. I'm not sure they will answer all your questions, as I used the state's Congressional districts as a rough geographic proxy for defining Dem vs. GOP areas, so it probably fails to really capture what is happening in Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Anyway, I'm happy to provide you with some of the data I've compiled and  I'll try to get some info to you later today. Off to a bar mitzvah now!

Alan

In 2005, Deeds outpolled Byrne statewide 971K to 957K. Both their races were very close.

Looking at voting district by district (I'm talking Congressional districts) Byrne did a little better than Deeds in the three most Democratic leaning ones (3, 8 and 11, with 8 and 11 comprising the closer-in DC suburbs). Deeds more that offset that, however, by strength in the 6th Dist. in the western part of the state and in the 9th Dist. (Southside).

The 10th district, which includes the DC exurbs in Loudoun and Prince William Counties, as well as points west all the way to the W.V. border,is pretty much of  a toss-up district. Byrne did slightly better there than Deeds, but I didn;t look at the distirbution of votes within the district itself, so she may have done even better closer to D.C., which is the district's faster growing area, obviously.

The bottom line is that Byrne was slightly stronger than Deeds in urban, Democratic areas, and Deeds was  abetter performer in rural, Republican ones. This netted out, statewide, to a slightly better performance for Deeds.

But all that said, I'm not sure the numbers point strongly to a single conclusion.

Here is one interesting thing, though. Kaine did better in Northern Virginia in 2005 than Warner did in 2001. In fact, Democrats did better in each office in 2005 than they did in 2001, most dramatically in Attorney General. This shows that Northern Virginia is growing bluer (duh!), and this trend is likely to benefit the party's candidate whether they hail from NoVa or not.

Again, this is looking at these guys generically. At the end of the day, it will come down to a choice between people, not addresses.

Alan

Good research. Interesting. May be onto something.

BUT, Creigh got 14K more votes (statewide) that Leslie Byrne despite spending almost $2 mil more. So that statistic does NOT impress me about Creigh's electability.

His strength in the the 6th and 9th were VERY impressive. How much are those districts depopulating from 2001 to 2005 to 2009? Do we have numbers. Cause they aren't growing. That's very good that he had strength there. He's probably the only Dem that can win there.

But that Leslie did better than Creigh in 3, 8, 10, 11 is impressive. Those are the ONLY Cds that Jim Webb won in 2006 - and he won Virginia. So doing badly there is NOT a good thing. I worry Creigh might be in trouble there against McDonnell.

I still don't know who is more electable. Creigh puts new counties in play over Moran - that's good. But his counties are shrinking and Moran can win where we need it (and where Webb did it). I'm not sure if Deeds can.

Hmmmmm....

We'll see.