Mike Turner is the stronger Democratic candidate for Frank Wolf's seat in Congress. In a 2008 election with many well-known names on the ballot, it behooves Democrats to present a unified slate in solidarity with our standard bearers.
The names above Wolf's on the ballot next November and their effect on the Congressional race must be considered. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama lead the hunt for the Democratic presidential nomination. Mark Warner and Jim Gilmore are running for Senate. Recent Christopher Newport University polls give Warner a lead of nearly 30 points over Gilmore. This margin can be expected to close, of course, but Warner is certainly the early favorite. The same polls put Clinton's support in Virginia at around 50 percent and Obama's little better, both of which are likely to fall as the Republican contenders sort themselves out and begin attacking them in earnest. There are some who claim that recent Democratic victories in Virginia put the state's electoral votes in contention. This strikes me as wishful thinking and overly optimistic. The more important point, however, is that Warner will probably do better in Virginia than Clinton or Obama will, attracting more of the essential Independent and moderate Republican voters. Whether Warner gets 65 percent to Obama's 51 or Warner gets 55 percent to Clinton's 47, Warner will do better statewide.
I expect that Warner will also do better than the presidential candidate in the 10th District. It is well known that Democratic momentum in Virginia is fueled by two factors: a rightward shift by state Republicans that causes many moderates to support common-sense Democrats, and the growth of Northern Virginia as a wealthy and populous base for liberals. The victories of Kaine and Webb are attributable to these two factors, as are the greater part of Democratic gains in the state legislature. The 10th Virginia Congressional District is on the cusp of change, but I do not see a balance tipped decisively in favor of liberals. The demographics of the region are shifting, but there remains, especially in the western part, a large body of reliable conservatives.
Furthermore, Frank Wolf is not the kind of right-wing extremist that can be defeated with relative ease by a moderate Democrat. Karen Schultz came close to defeating Jill Vogel by contesting the center. The same is true for Mark Warner over Jim Gilmore. Webb's victory was largely the result of Allen's blundering alienation of too many moderates. Wolf is not as extreme as Vogel or Gilmore, and he is cagier than George Allen. I see in Wolf the kind of pragmatic conservatism that dominated Virginia politics for decades before I was born. Wolf shares with John Warner, John Chichester, and Russ Potts a streak of common sense, willingness to compromise, and fiscal agility. This old guard of powerful, successful Republicans is waning in Virginia, replaced by a more ardent and pure conservatism. We see a spate of retirements leaving a vacuum of leadership. The marginalization of Tom Davis shows the ascendency of a new approach among Virginia Republicans. Frank Wolf is possibly the strongest remaining champion of the old guard.
Insofar as the new Virginia Republicans can be outmaneuvered by mobilizing liberals and rallying Independents, Frank Wolf presents a great challenge. His advocacy for human rights, historic preservation and open space, and transportation funding create a certain ambivalence among liberals. Wolf has made excellent use of all the advantages of long incumbency, and his pork projects give him some broad popularity. Wolf can whip up the conservative faithful well enough to build a solid coalition. In 2006 he defeated Judy Feder by a 57-41 margin (67-30 in the more rural Frederick County).
What is the best way to unseat Wolf in 2008? The Democratic challenger must not be a NoVa-style liberal. A seriously progressive candidate is weak in the 10th in the same way that a militant conservative like Gilmore is weak statewide. When a voting population is on the cusp of change, the opposing forces are nearly equal. Success goes to the candidate who can activate the devoted while simultaneously rallying the fence-sitters.
Recall the previous statement that Warner will do better in the 10th District than Clinton or Obama. The District will see a substantial number of split-ticket voters. You can imagine the kind of person who will vote against Clinton but for Warner. This kind of voter may number in the tens of thousands and will be decisive for the hopes of any Wolf challenger. If only Obama voters vote for the 10th District Democratic candidate, then that candidate will not win. Our challenger must have a clear similarity to Mark Warner. If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, it is especially important that our congressional candidate be resistant to association with her. When faced with the question, "What sort of Democrat is running against Frank Wolf?" the answer must be "The Mark Warner sort" and not "The Hillary Clinton sort."
It seems clear to me that Mike Turner is the right kind of Democrat to run against Wolf. His military background and practical foreign policy ideas are reminiscent of Jim Webb. His professional business sense and fiscal competence echo Mark Warner. He brings his own unique geniality, energy, and poise to campaigning. I can with painful ease imagine Republican attacks savaging Clinton and Feder as comrades-in-arms for socialist healthcare and the sad consequences on Election Day. Mike Turner appears far more resilient. He is a natural ally of Webb, Warner, and Kaine, and could effectively share a stage with any of them.
Mike Turner can capitalize on Mark Warner's advantages in 2008. Turner may even be able to help Warner on defense and security issues. It is essential that Independents and centrist Republicans who split their ticket and vote for Warner find another palatable Democrat on the ballot. Mike Turner is that Democrat. He represents all that has made the party successful in recent years: optimism, common sense, and constructive consensus building. Mike Turner is our best candidate for Congress.
Thoughts?