The victors and the rest ....

By: Rob
Published On: 1/3/2008 11:40:39 PM

Big night for Obama and Huckabee.  Tough night for Romney, Edwards, and Clinton.  And a tougher night for everyone else.  Here we go:

UPDATE: Chris Dodd dropping out, according to CNN.

UPDATE: Good speech by Edwards, good move claiming second place.  But he didn't congratulate Obama?  

UPDATE: Hillary gave a good speech too - but surprised she didn't lay claim to second place herself.

UPDATE: Huck is speaking now.  He's sounding confident.

UPDATE: Obama about to speak.  Current numbers are Obama 37.56%, Edwards 29.82%, Clinton 29.42%.  According to Tweety, Obama's family is "stylish!"  

UPDATE: Obama is rocking. "You have shown what New Hampshire can do in 5 days!  You have shown what America can do in this new year, 2008!  ... We are one nation, we are one people, and our time for change has come!"

UPDATE:  Biden dropping out now too.  Whither Richardson?  

UPDATE:  Eileen reports in the comments that Richardson is staying in the race.  Riding the momentum of his 2% finish?

UPDATE:  Just a handful of precincts outstanding, so these numbers shouldn't change much.  Bad news turning worse for Hillary, as the rounded numbers the press will report will be Obama 38%, Edwards 30%, Clinton 29% if these decimals hold up.  So, the newspapers of the country will report that she finished in 3rd place and 9 points behind Obama.

Senator Barack Obama : 37.56%
Senator John Edwards : 29.78%
Senator Hillary Clinton : 29.47%
Governor Bill Richardson : 2.09%


Comments



I didn't like the Edwards speech (NGB - 1/3/2008 11:45:04 PM)
He was smart to claim 2nd, but not congratulating Obama was dumb.  He was way too angry and when the world was watching I think he faltered, not quite Dean style, but close.


He sent the most important message (relawson - 1/3/2008 11:53:49 PM)
His campaign will go on.

The man hasn't slept in two days.  Give him a break.  The only people who noticed who he did or didn't congratulate are looking for a reason to find fault with him.



'cause she knew she was going to finish 3rd (teacherken - 1/3/2008 11:51:53 PM)
and the way it looks, final figures rounded to whole percentages will have her at 29, Edwards at 30, and Obama possibly at 38

if you just look at Clinton and Obama, put their share together, Obama won 56% of that vote, and also apparently won 35% of all women compared to 30% for Clinton.

Huckabee's speech was quite good.  He should NOT be underestimated in NH and nationally.



Hillary doesn't need to win Iowa (Hugo Estrada - 1/4/2008 12:09:31 AM)
As long as she is still strong in other states. These early races are more important for second and third place candidates  to gain name recognition and gain momentum. How is she doing in other states?


Huck sounds progressive? (Houdon - 1/3/2008 11:55:33 PM)
He kind of sounds like Edwards:

"This is the start of a prarie fire of new hope in this nation."

We are "elected not to be a member of the ruling class, but the serving class."  

What was that G.K. Chesterton quote?



right (Sui Juris - 1/4/2008 12:01:45 AM)
see, with Huckabee, he'll light the kindling around the stakes from below, instead of above . . .


Obama (Houdon - 1/4/2008 12:15:53 AM)
Is setting his own fire!! Man, this guy is talented.  I loved that challenge to New Hampshire.  He may as well have challenged New Hampshire's hipness. As though if they don't pick him next week they're not as open, hip, or cool as the midwesterners.  

Also, I know it's pedestrian to mention, but Michelle Obama has so much more of a presence compared to her competition.    



Biden dropping out.. (NGB - 1/4/2008 12:20:53 AM)
Wow.


Yep... (Johnny Camacho - 1/4/2008 12:58:57 AM)
And I am completely depressed.


It's (Sui Juris - 1/4/2008 3:33:44 AM)
for the best.  But you can rest assured that whenever there is a opinion to be shared, dead air to fill, or something not-quite-right to say, Joe will be there.  For a very long time :)


Edwards #2 again, hum... (chspkheel - 1/4/2008 12:31:03 AM)
Always the brides maid, never the bride in Iowa for Edwards.  Didn't he finish second in Iowa last time?  I know it is 2008 vs. 2003/4, but if I was Edwards, I would be a little bitter too.  Think about it,... Obama is doing what he couldn't do.  Be a 1st term Senator, with lots of charisma, win Iowa and be the next Kennedy.  Well, I'm not saying that Obama is JFK.  If you recall, there was polling done that asked the question(s) about Edwards in North Carolina, should he run for President without completing a full term in the US Senate or would you prefer that he run for re-election?  

The bottom line, North Carolinians wanted him to make up his mind and chose one or the other.  They would have prefered he run for re-election, but he chose to run for President.  There are those that I have talked since 2004 that said the polling pointed to him loosing for re-election.  They were wrong.  If he had run for re-election, he would have been able to hold his seat.  Edwards has no one to blame but himself.  This was his nomination to loose in 2008.  He started drinkning the cool aide and beliving his own press clippings.  The seeds for his bitterness tonight, and his second place showing, were sowed back in 2003.  Heck, Edwards is loosing in South Carolina, and that's suppose to be his base.  

I' be bitter too if I were him, but he has no one to blame but his own ego.  Brides Maid again.    



Not Fair (relawson - 1/5/2008 12:18:06 AM)
"I' be bitter too if I were him, but he has no one to blame but his own ego. "

The elite media pre-ordained Clinton and Hillary to be their darlings of the race.  They have all but ignored Edwards - not to mention the bottom tier candidates.  Shameful, considering that Edwards beat Hillary Clinton.

This is why General Clark didn't fair well.  We should not let history repeat itself.

And to all the people saying the race is over for Edwards - shame on you.  How quickly you forget that Senator Webb beat both Harris Miller and George Allen and he was grossly outspent.  How quickly you forget that Edwards beat Clinton in Iowa even though he was outspent 6-fold.

Let's get real here.  Edwards gives us more bang for the buck.  Clinton hasn't found a contribution she won't take.  Yet so many of you remain silent on this.  Money from special interests is OK if it's your candidate, I guess.

Even with all that corporate money, Edwards still beat Clinton.

Finally, most people telling Edwards to pack it up also happen to support either Hillary or Obama.  He has enough money.  He had a strong showing in Iowa - even beating Clinton.  That certainly wasn't expected as recently as a week ago.  So enough of the "Edwards is over" bullshit.  It's spin, pure and simple.



correction (relawson - 1/5/2008 12:28:24 AM)
should have said Clinton and Obama.  Not Clinton and Hillary.


Comparing Edwards to Webb is a little naive, i think (DanG - 1/5/2008 12:37:41 AM)
Webb is an undefeated politician.  He's won one primary and one general election.

John Edwards has only won one: his single elected office, US Senator.  He lost the nomination for President in 2004.  He lost on the ticket.  And now, he lost the first caucus in the race, again.  But unlike last time, he's not an unknown who miraculously came in second to an experienced long-time Senator, losing only by five points.  He's a former VP candidate with national name-recognition who lost by a wider margin (8 points) to a guy who has even less washington experience than him.  Conventional wisdom would lead you to believe that Johnny is done.

My point is that the Virginia Primary in 2006 and the Presidential Primary of 2008 are totally different beasts, and comparing the two either shows a desperate stretch to fit your own situation, or a basic misunderstanding of the way this all works.  Now, if we had done the primary in 2006 county by county, and Webb had been outspent, lost Fairfax, but then come back to win it all, your analogy would make sense.  But that's not how it happened.

Further, saying that Webb was outspent doesn't change the fact that he still won the primary outright; he didn't lose first and then comeback or anything.  One vote, one victory.  Edwards was outspent and LOST the first caucus, shifting momentum away from him.  Remember, Iowa was the only state where Edwards was consitently competetive.  A few polls have shown him in the race in NH or SC, but not many.  For example, in the upcoming NH primary, he averages about 16 points behind the winner, and about 10 points behind the silver medal.  He really needed a win in Iowa.  Now, clearly, these polls are gonna shift a bit, and if Hillary's third place finish hurts her enough, Edwards may have a shot.  But I really think Hillary won't be that hurt, and any change in the numbers will be more from an Obama surge than anything else.

I'm sorry, but unless something miraculous happens in New Hampshire, Edwards is likely done.  He may stick around to see what happens in SC, where he is losing by even more.  But unless New Hampshire breaks long tradition, he may be finished.



Comparing the situation, not the men (relawson - 1/5/2008 12:46:51 AM)
Although the men both have some things in common (populist platform) I wasn't comparing them as men.  I was simply pointing out that both men had very little money in comparison to their rivals, and they both beat the odds.  Edwards was not projected to beat Clinton just a week ago.

We have been through one state.  And a very small state.  This won't be decided until February.

In the case of Webb and Allen, the media focused on these two candidates.  So there wasn't option C - just A or B.

In the case of Edwards, the media has ignored him.  Obviously they errored in their ways since he beat Clinton.  Imagine how well Edwards would be doing if they gave him equal air time!

So he had less money and less free airtime.  He still beat the status quo.  There is something to be said for that.



Richardson continues the fight (elevandoski - 1/4/2008 12:37:33 AM)
DES MOINES, IA-- New Mexico Governor and Democratic Presidential candidate Bill Richardson finished in fourth place in today's Iowa caucuses, moving his campaign forward to the New Hampshire primary on January 8th.

"We made it to the final four," Richardson said. "My staff and volunteers worked their hearts out to get us here. Now we are going to take the fight to New Hampshire."



South Carolina (Veritas - 1/4/2008 9:32:02 AM)
South Carolina Edwards's base??? umm who said this...South Carolina's dem base is largely black and most likely voting for obama or clinton. Edwards put alot into Iowa and unless he wins New Hampshire things dont look too good for him moving forward. Too bad as I think he would do a better job than my number 2 choice Obama, oh well


Edwards' base (chspkheel - 1/4/2008 2:23:13 PM)
Actually, yes.  He was born and raised in South Carolina and his parents live in Oconee County.  He has his Campaign Headquarters based in Chapel Hill, NC.  He won South Carolina easily last time.  He's a native Southerner and South Carolinian and played that angle effectively in the 2004 Primary.  But, you are correct.  This time, the native son will finish behind the others.  


Check the polls (DanG - 1/5/2008 12:40:04 AM)
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Virtually an Obama/Clinton tie.  Right now I'd venture Obama is ahead, but that could change if he loses NH.  If he wins, however, I think he may solidly take SC.