What a bunch of frowning unhappy people at the Carrol County repugnant Caucus. The Democrats are having a blast!

"HUGE crowd," USA TODAY's Kathy Kiely e-mails us, from inside a Democratic caucus at the Edmunds Academy of Fine Arts in Des Moines. The official count, she says: 248 caucus-goers, nearly double the 2004 attendance of 130 at that site. It's a pro-Obama crowd, she says. The first round of voting went 122 for Sen. Barack Obama, 37 for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Obama campaign estimates 207,000 voters -- that is pretty amazing in and of itself.  It sounds like Obama is bringing a lot of new, young voters, into Democrat the fold as well.  Great news for Dems, bad news for the GOP.

Fingers crossed for Obama.

180 something for Obama - 3 delegates
160 something for Edwards - 2 "
80 something for Clinton - 1 "

http://www.iowacaucusresults.com/

Real time, updated every 30 seconds.

Polk - Desmoines
Johnson - Iowa City  ISU
Story - Ames - U of Iowa

still less than 1/3 of each reporting.  In each case, Obam 1st, edwards 2nd, and Clinton 34d.

Obama should win perhaps y more than 5 points over Clinton

Edwards may just hold on to 2nd place.

McCain may finish 4th in Iowa.    

Why would conservatives - who tend to dislike Clinton - vote for her?  My guess is that conservatives are trying to choose a person they think a Republican is more likely to win against.

Am I wrong here?

If Obama gets a 10% lead like Huckabee almsost did (at last count) then you can start talking about blowouts.

The Democratic race isn't over.  IMHO all 3 candidates are still in it.  I mean really, two hundred thousand people in Iowa representing a country with over 450 million people?  

That's not spin: it's analysis.

I don't see how the story can still be Hillary / Obama.  Edwards tied Hillary.  He should be getting more free media attention where as previously he was ignored.  

I know people want his campaign to be over.  But let's be real, this is one small state.

If you are an Obama supporter - it's your job to declare the race all but over.  I get that.  But it's not over until February 5th.

In short, Edwards was all but ignored by the media.  He still came in 2nd or a very strong 3rd (votes still being counted).

A 7% - 8% victory margin though in a tight three way race sends a pretty strong message.  The victory margin is way beyond what I anticipated  . . . I'm am very curious to see how this shakes out next week in New Hampshire.

Edwards may be toast.

I remember a certain race in Virginia where a candidate who was grossly outspent beat Harris Miller in the Primary.  I wonder if Jim Webb thinks it is over for John Edwards.

Edwards fought a great fight, but he's going to have a hard time going forward.

70% of the Dems in Iowa voted for some combination of Obama/Edwards/Richardson, i.e. the non-establishment candidates. That's a pretty solid coalition starting point, especially if he can bring Richardson in as Sec of State.

The only combination that would beat that would be if he could get a strong female governor on his ticket -- Kathleen Sebelius or Janet Napolitano. But if bringing in Edwards now assures him of the nomination, he'd be crazy not to do it, right?

But AG might be a good fit.

Still, I think he'd have to offer Edwards the Veep slot to really cement his coalition between a non-ideological progressive (Obama) and a true populist.  

I think it is way too early to pronounce the Edwards candidacy DOA.

For those who like to keep score, the Wikipedia site above gives the dates of each primary, and the number of delegates at stake.  It also gives the count on superdelegates who've already made endorsements.  

This other site below explains how the Democrats allocate delegates nationwide:  

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/...

Count me as root, root, rooting for Huckabee. The only Republicans that sort of scare me are McCain (because he can win) and Giuliani (because he's insane). Any of the other clowns get crushed in November.

And independents and 18-30 y.o. voters would flock in droves to Obama. I mean, it would be a landslide in the younger set.

Huck's combination of anti-evolution, general anti-science, know-nothingism, along with his fervent evangelicalism, would result in a rout.

Just my $.02, of course, but I think the only chance the Republicans have is if they nominate McCain, because he still (wrongly) maintains his indy cred in the press.

I doubt he would really fracture the Republican coalition.  And he has great potential for drawing away Democrats that are socially conservative.  He may not be the favorite of the Republican elite, but I bet they will back him once the nomination is over.  I doubt they are going fold up shop and vote for a Democrat, not vote, or send their money our way.  And at the end of the day, I bet he will get help from Rove and Bush.

If it comes down to Huckabee, in other words, I would expect a lot of enthusiasm from Republican Christians, and a lot of nervous ambivalence from everyone else.

All of the things you dismiss Huckabee on were/are for the most part espoused by President Bush.  Only Huckabee actually walks the walk on "compassionate conservatism."

Which is why Huckabee will get crushed. Any one that speaks like Mr. 28% did 8 years ago has no chance, absolutely no chance, to win. That brand is destroyed. You might argue that Bush never ACTUALLY went after that agenda, fine. But regardless, I think the profile of the heavily religious outsider trying to do the "compassionate conservative" route is doomed for quite a long time.

Independents and younger voters want no part of that type of agenda anymore.

As for socially conservative Dems, maybe some will leave the coalition to vote for a genuine social conservative. But I doubt that population is very high -- voters with a profile like that, where social issues trump the war and/or economic issues, are mostly Republicans already.

Young voters don't historically show up.  Homogeneous, issue oriented groups do.

On the pull, he has economic issues down and the war may not be as much of an issue in November if violence continues to stay down.  It's not about social issues trumping other issues in drawing away support; it is about the combination of economic populism and social conservatism.  

Since then, the whole country has slowly been opening its eyes. Reality eventually trumps a manufactured fear and loathing.

Ask Obama tonight if youth, first time voters, and independents can make a difference or not.

Bush's recipe was a one time deal. This country is becoming less and less a white, conservative, Christian electorate. That may be the Republican party base, but all that guarantees is a very long minority party status. Non-union, white, Christian males are the only demographic the Republicans have anymore. Huckabee may well win that demographic handily -- and lose the country by at least 60/40.  

On Super Tuesday over 2,000 delegates are chosen.

Beware the qualifiers.

Why?

Cause if their canvasing was correct, REPUBLICAN's switched parties to vote against Hillary. Obama's jump of 5-7 percentage points all came from Republicans or Independant leaning Republicans. All afraid that Hillary would win Iowa.

Don't believe it? Look at the low turn out of Republican voters. What were there 4 D votes to every R vote?

And who the heck is spinning? I am not a Republican. I write what I believe to be facts, from the news that was reported on both CNN and MSNBC.

Now if the news media or others lie or spin lies, then I make the mistake of believing too much of what I hear.

We all walk the thin line of INSANE/SANITY, so be prepared for a cross over at some time in your life. And I hope you have the will power to return to sanity.

Can anyone explain the hundredths of a percentage point between Edwards and Clinton. That is the most impressive part of the caucus.

Statement of the Governor on Senator Barack Obama's Iowa Caucus Win

PRESS RELEASE:  For Immediate Release                                                       CONTACT: Charlie Kelly                                                                    

January 3th, 2007                                                                                cell - (804) 822-1441

RICHMOND - Tim Kaine, national co-chair of the Obama for America campaign, released the following statement on Barack Obama's win in the Iowa Caucus.

"I want to congratulate Senator Obama on his solid victory in tonight's Iowa Caucus.

"Barack's success indicates his broad support and his ability to appeal to folks from across the political spectrum.

"Tonight we have seen that Iowans, like people here in Virginia and across America, are looking for real change in Washington."

One thing is for sure. They don't want another Clinton.

We'll see how things go in South Carolina which will be the most telling of these January events.  

Obama 08!

The political engineering which once fused the corporate interests and the social values of Christian conservatives has now mutated. The DNA has recombined and reassembled itself into a Republican anti-corporate socially conservative politics. Thus we see the law of unintended consequences for the Republicans, and some poetic justice as well.

Don't get me wrong, I'll hop on the Obama band wagon if I think Edwards is out and Hillary may take the lead.  But when it comes to the candidate least likely to sell out to big business, I think that guy is Edwards.

Clinton on the other hand represents the status quo.  Her campaign is financed by big money.  I can't imagine voting for her.  I'd throw up!