If I am dead on, I can ride that for at least a couple of months ;-)  If I am way off, well, I'll come up with some explanation ;-)

Very similar to Chris Guy's predictions; hopefully mine add up to 100% as well! :)

Biden       4.2%
Richardson  3.4%
Dodd        2.6%
Kucinich   -0.4%
Gravel     -1.8%

We already know Kucinich's 1% goes to Obama, making it Obama 33%, Edwards 29%, Clinton 27%, and the rest having to take sides.

Also, a caucus is NOT OVER UNTIL ONE CANDIDATE BREAKS 50%.  So this CAN'T be the endgame.  Sombody had to break 50% for this to end, which means some of the major candidates supporters may have to change sides depending upon the results.

I wouldn't place much in whatever Biden or Richardson tell their supporters about whom to go to for second choice. It just doesn't work that way. If they are not viable, the people already have their second choice in mind, the viable candidates will have representatives there making the pitch for each of their candidates.

It'll have an impact, make no mistake.  These people are incredibly dedicated to the candidate they support.  They have to be if they've stuck around this long, even when they know victory is impossible.  They WILL care what their candidate says.  Will it be the only factor?  Of course not.  But it'll be a major one.

It would have some impact. But everyone knows who most peoples 2nd choice is. I think it will be a close race for first between Edwards and Obama with Clinton not too far behind in third.

Anyone know what this does to Clinton if she comes in third?

I expected him to favor Obama. He's been especially rough on him recently, but so has Markos and he leans Obama if I'm not mistaken.  

If you are going into a house and planning on voting for Biden or Richardson, you must have an aversion to the top three.

To overcome that aversion, it seems to me that you'd need more than a suggestion from your favored candidate.

Biden is on the record saying there will be no deals. Looking for the link to that now.

But i still think your numbers are pretty close as to the final tally.

He is not going to Obama.

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/...

http://www.iowafirstcaucus.org...

Where did you get 50%?  Fifty percent applies to the national convention. Does any state have a similar rule, and if so at what level?  

Of course, the same is true in a Preference Primary state like Va., the only substantial difference being the Primary vote determines the delegate distribution % and the non-viable (below 15%) candidates get no dlegates from that state.

The GOP process, at least in a caucus state, is that the don't have a viability threshold, presumably (snark) none of their candidates are viable.

The Dem. vs GOP turnout differential was absolutely wonderful, with IA Dem. turnout over twice the GOP turnout.
With that major disparity, it seems a virtual certainty that the Dem. nominee will turn traditional red IA to blue, remarkably similar to what happened in Va. in 2006.

                       T.C.

It's a total crap shoot tomorrow and it all depends on turnout.

RCP has a rolling average with Obama at 29%, HRC at 28.6%, and Edwards at 26%.

Anything can happen inside of those numbers.

I can say that I'm personally hoping for a HUGE Obama win, because quite frankly he's the only one who keeps HRC out of the White House.  An Edwards win in Iowa just assures Hillary the nomination, and the Republican base is too assbackwards to give the nomination to the only guy who can beat her in the general, McCain.

The rest of the Grim Old Pygmies over there are too fatally flawed to have a chance in this environment.  

My guess is that it will be

Edwards 34%
Clinton 33%
Obama  25%
Others 9%

Here are the 2004 results for comparison

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2...
John Kerry 37.6
John Edwards 31.8
Howard Dean 18.0
Richard Gephardt 10.6
Dennis Kucinich 01.3
Wesley Clark 00.0 (didn't campaign)
Uncommitted 00.5

In 2012 Iowa and NH will be part of the Super Tuesday primary, in May...

Iowa - republicans
Huckabee 32
Romney 30
McCain 21  

Clinton: 32%
Edwards: 31%
Obama: 29%

For Republicans:
Huckabee: 35%
Romney: 35%
McCain: 17%

I know very little about the Republican numbers.  Yeah, I know McCain polls way below that, but while I'm not the biggest fan of the guy, a state's Republican population can't honestly be so stupid as to stick him in fourth or fifth place.

PS - code's numbers add up to 105%, and that's just for three of the eight candidates!

PPS - I'd also like to laugh at the map of Iowa.  the counties are a perfect grid - what did they pick the top 40 Iowans throughout history, divide the land equally, and name a plot for each one?  Please... Virginia's oddly shaped 300-year-old counties are so much cooler.

Huckabee - 31
Romney - 27
McCain - 15

Obama - 34%
Clinton - 30%
Edwards - 27%
Richardson - 4%
Biden - 3%
Dodd - 2%

Bad guys:

Romney - 31%
Huckabee - 29%
McCain - 19%
Thompson - 13%
Giuliani - 8%

It also looks like Obama may have brokered a deal with Richardson which should help.

http://www.iowaindependent.com...

The Kucinich support is also likely to be helpful in a close race.

I think in the end that Obama will need it, because of his reliance on first-time caucus goers.  I would not be surprised to see Edwards outperform expectations given that his support is rock-solid and caucus tested.  No last minute jitters are likely to sway his support base.

I am also anxious to see the overall caucus going turnout numbers.  There's a pretty good chance that the Dems will smoke the GOPers in this purple state, which serves as a favorable early indicator for 2008 regardless of who wins tomorrow.  (FWIW, I think Obama needs to win in order to pull independent support in the New Hampshire primary.  If Obama finishes 3rd, I think there's more than a little chance that the independents who voted for McCain in 2000 in New Hampshire will lean once again in his direction -- one reason that McCain has been surging while Obama's numbers have taken a hit in that state recently.  If Obama wins Iowa, I think he has a very good chance to pull out another narrow win in New Hampshire based on an Iowa bounce.  A victory by 4 to 5% points would be huge -- although I think a margin of less than 1% is his most likely victory scenario).    

I am anxious to see how this one plays out -- it's been a long, long primary season.

Zogby now has Hillary in third on his final day of polling -- and his seven point spread is the same gap as the Des Moines Register.

(How many people are refusing to answer their phones at this point is anyone's guess.)

I wonder who Pat Robertson is predicting will win Iowa?  If you can find out, it will probably be the other way around.  http://hamptonroads.com/2008/0...

Robertson acknowledged Wednesday that his prophecy of a nuclear terror attack in 2007 failed to unfold.

He also cited information from God when he predicted on a year go that major U.S. cities would be hit by "very serious terrorist attacks" causing "possibly millions" of deaths.

No such catastrophe occurred.

Huckabee: 38% - nauseating lead he will not keep in New Hampshire
McCain: 31% - gah, he's still in this thing, but not for long
Romney: 29% - surprisingly close, and New Hampshire is his friend
effectively ending it for Gulianni - hurrah!

Furthermore I predict that Edwards will get even closer in NH and come out on top in SC, but not by enough to knock out either Clinton or Obama!!!

On the R side, Romney will crush everone but McCain & Ron Paul (and beat them both narrowly) in NH and that Huckabee will snag SC by a narrow margin...  the killer is will McCain be close enough second to win the nomination, or will Huckabee's two victories be enough for the Rs to ignore the Northeast entirely?

November: any of the top three Dems vs McCain or Huckabee

Clinton 31%

Edwards 31%

Richardson 5%

I think Obama takes it even though, I want Edwards to win...

Huckabee - 32%
Romney - 30%
McCain - 14%
Paul-11%
Thompson - 8%
Giuliani - 5%

Edwards 31
Hillary 28
Obama   26
Biden    7
Dodd     5

The Red People

Romney     33
Huckabee   30
McCain     14
Thompson, Giuliani, Paul high singles in that order  

Go Edwards!
I'd like to see Romney do well in Iowa because that means it is harder for McCain and Huckabee to do well afterwards...   I am no Romney fan, but I despise both McCain and Huckabee.

So much for the pols saying Edwards was the most popular second choice thats what my prediction was hinging on

I have nothing against Obama its just if he does well tonight that causes some real headaches for McCain in NH

He still has to see if the youth people actually come out and vote

We shall see soon :-)

No matter what, we have a group of at least three candidates who have done us proud..... all of them....

It will be curious whom of them if ANY would accept the VP role this summer..... even though thats a long way off right now.

Obama is the stop clinton candidate.  All the richardson, biden, etc folks who don't get viability will rally round Obama.  In the caucus room they will all start talking about who is the anti-Hillary candidate.  Obama gets the nod because he's the fresh face.

I have no idea on the other side but my gut says McCain suprises everyone.  Thompson sounds like he's dropping out; and that will hurt him by at least 2%

Obama 39%
Edwards 27%
Clinton 26%
Richardson 8%
Others--negligible & draw no delegates

Richardson's (and Biden's & Kucinich's) unviable precincts will push Barack into the high-30's, while some last minute defections from Edwards to Obama will push his numbers down a bit from the 30-ish mark.  Clinton holds on in lots of aging precincts but loses big time in the cities and university towns.  Richardson will draw vaibility in about half the precincts, giving him roughly 8% of delegates statewide.

Whoever stated that a candidate MUST reach 50% is INCORRECT.  The precinct judge can ASK delegates to join other camps in HOPES that happens, but no one is forced to beg off from a candidate who hits the magic 15% mark.  Unless the number of delegates is so small from the precinct that 15% won't be enough to capture one of them, this idea is incorrect.  Even then, no one is forced to join any candidates caucus group if they are not comfortable doing so.

Huckabee 35%
Romney 23%
Paul 19%
McCain 17%
Thompson 5%
Others...Negligible

Big win for the Huckmeister, and a shockingly strong showing from Ron Paul...

http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=2...

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic market at 57.5 cents. Barack Obama is at 30.8 cents and John Edwards is third at 10.6 cents.

Prices on both sides are likely to shift rapidly overnight as the caucus results are reported.  The nominations are a winner take all market; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

If someone could explain how these markets work, it would be much appreciated.

It would require a separate column to explain the process in detail, but suffice it to say that it almost takes a PhD in mathematics to advise Iowa Democrats on their delegate allocation formula. The party even refuses to release the simple hand-count of caucus participants for each presidential candidate, making public only the final delegate allocations. Thus, the raw popular votes for the candidates, which can differ considerably from the weighted delegate allocations, are never known.

Sabato

I have made the boldest Edwards prediction yet.

This is assuming that nobody else breaks 15%, which, of course, I am.

Edwards loses Iowa, and see little reason to stick around.  He may drop out, he may not.  But a second place finish is hardly going to help him jump 20 points in NH and SC.  Clinton takes a hard hit, even though it's not a huge loss.  But she loses that "inevitability" factor, and drops in NH and SC as people take another look.

Edwards 32
Obama 28
Clinton 27
The rest we will have to see about!

I could be wrong I think tonite will be a night for suprises. Any of the top 3 can do it. I believe it is make or break for Edwards. Obama and Clinton can survive a second or third place finish. Lets wish all of our democratic candidates the best of luck

Lets have a great 2008!

Clinton: 34
Edwards: 33
Obama:   31

Edwards pulls a few Obama votes..Hillary keeps her core and brings in some conservative I's. Roll of dice may prove a more effective method !

Need to repeat: Its only Iowa, its only Iowa.  

Huckabee has a strong base..who will show up for their candidate... o.k. Let the Caucus' begin !..